Predicting Serial Position Effects1

2020 ◽  
pp. 145-183
Author(s):  
Martha Whitesmith
Keyword(s):  
Serial Position ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Position Effects ◽  
Serial Position Effects ◽  
Adjustment Model ◽  
Belief Adjustment ◽  
Evidential Basis

Chapter four provides details of a meta-analysis conducted into serial position effects. The meta-analysis also identified whether there are any significant differences in the proportion of bias under different analytical conditions between belief adjustment conducted in an intelligence scenario and belief adjustment conducted in non-intelligence scenarios. The chapter argues that there is no compelling evidential basis to suggest that serial position effects or confirmation bias affect intelligence analysis differently from non-intelligence analysis. It will show that the analytical conditions of volume of information, reliance on recall, accountability and type of information likely have an impact on serial position effects. The results undermine key assumptions in predominant predictions models. This includes the belief-adjustment model for serial position effects (Hogarth and Einhorn 1992).

The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario1

2020 ◽  
pp. 107-144
Author(s):  
Martha Whitesmith
Keyword(s):  
Serial Position ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Position Effects ◽  
Serial Position Effects ◽  
The Us

Chapter three provides details of an experimental study conducted in 2016 to provide an evaluation of the efficacy of ACH in mitigating the cognitive biases of serial position effects and confirmation bias using the scoring systems of credibility of information and diagnostic value of information. The study is based on a disguised version of the intelligence case for both the biological and nuclear weapons capabilities of Saddam Hussein’s regime that was used to support the US decision to invade Iraq in 2003. The study shows that the version of ACH taught by the PHIA to the UK’s intelligence community between 2016-2017 has no statistically significant mitigating effect on the occurrence of serial position effects or confirmation bias.

Predicting Confirmation Bias

2020 ◽  
pp. 184-206
Author(s):  
Martha Whitesmith
Keyword(s):  
Serial Position ◽  
Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Position Effects ◽  
Serial Position Effects ◽  
Initial Information ◽  
Focal Hypothesis ◽  
Meta Analyses

Chapter five provides details of the meta-analyses into confirmation bias. It will show that the analytical conditions of diagnostic weighting of initial information, consistency of information, hypothesis testing instructions and type of information likely have an impact on confirmation bias. It will also show that the results undermine key assumptions in predominant predictions models the inability to identify diagnostic value of information theory concerning confirmation bias (Koslowski and Maqueda 1993, and Kuhn et al. 1988). The chapter proposes alternative models for predicting serial position effects and confirmation bias. These models argue that whilst the risk of occurrence of serial position effects and confirmation bias are impacted by different analytical conditions, they share an underlying cognitive process: a force towards forming a focal hypothesis early on in belief acquisition.

Serial Position Effects on Native Advertising Effectiveness: Differential Results Across Publisher and Advertiser Metrics

2018 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengyuan Wang ◽  
Guiyang Xiong ◽  
Jian Yang
Keyword(s):  
Serial Position ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Moderating Effects ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Position Effects ◽  
Serial Position Effects ◽  
Advertising Industry ◽  
Large Scale Data ◽  
Gender And Age

The advertising industry has recently witnessed proliferation in native ads, which are inserted into a web stream (e.g., a list of news articles or social media posts) and look like the surrounding nonsponsored contents. This study is among the first to examine native ads and unveil how their effectiveness changes across serial positions by analyzing a large-scale data set with 120 ads. For each ad, the authors use separate “natural experiment” studies to compare the ad’s performance as its serial position varies. Subsequently, they conduct a meta-analysis to generalize the results across all studies. The results reveal vastly asymmetric effects of native ad serial position on publishers’ metrics (click-based) versus advertisers’ metrics (conversion-based). As serial position lowers (i.e., from rank 1 to a lower rank), there are only modest changes in publishers’ metrics, but drastic reductions in advertisers’. This pattern is unique to native ads and has not been indicated by prior research on ad serial position. Moreover, the authors show the moderating effects of audience gender and age. The findings provide new and timely implications for researchers and marketers.

Impact of Comorbid Depression on Serial Position Effects in Alzheimer’s Disease

GeroPsych ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 161-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nienke A. Hofrichter ◽  
Sandra Dick ◽  
Thomas G. Riemer ◽  
Carsten Schleussner ◽  
Monique Goerke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Serial Position ◽  
Episodic Memory ◽  
Memory Performance ◽  
Memory Function ◽  
Word List ◽  
Position Effects ◽  
Serial Position Effects ◽  
List Memory

Hippocampal dysfunction and deficits in episodic memory have been reported for both Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and major depressive disorder (MDD). Primacy performance has been associated with hippocampus-dependent episodic memory, while recency may reflect working memory performance. In this study, serial position profiles were examined in a total of 73 patients with MDD, AD, both AD and MDD, and healthy controls (HC) by means of CERAD-NP word list memory. Primacy performance was most impaired in AD with comorbid MDD, followed by AD, MDD, and HC. Recency performance, on the other hand, was comparable across groups. These findings indicate that primacy in AD is impaired in the presence of comorbid MDD, suggesting additive performance decrements in this specific episodic memory function.

Best to Be Last: Serial Position Effects in Legal Decisions in the Field and in the Lab

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ori Plonsky ◽  
Daniel L. Chen ◽  
Liat Netzer ◽  
Talya Steiner ◽  
Yuval Feldman
Keyword(s):  
Serial Position ◽  
Position Effects ◽  
Serial Position Effects ◽  
Legal Decisions
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document