Animate and Inanimate Words Demonstrate Equivalent Retrieval Dynamics Despite the Occurrence of the Animacy Advantage

People demonstrate a memory advantage for animate (living) concepts over inanimate (nonliving) concepts in a variety of memory tasks, including free recall, but we do not know the mechanism(s) that produces this effect. We compared the retrieval dynamics (serial-position effects, probability of first recall, output order, categorical clustering, and recall contiguity) of animate and inanimate words in a typical free recall task to help elucidate this effect. Participants were more likely to recall animate than inanimate words, but we found few, if any, differences in retrieval dynamics by word type. The animacy advantage was obtained across serial position, including occurring in both the primacy and recency regions of the lists. Participants were equally likely to recall an animate or inanimate word first on the tests and did not prioritize recalling words of one type earlier in retrieval or demonstrate strong clustering by animacy at recall. Participants showed some greater contiguity of recall for inanimate words, but this outcome ran counter to the animacy effect. Together, the results suggest that the animacy advantage stems from increased item-specific memory strength for animate over inanimate words and is unlikely to stem from intentional or strategic differences in encoding or retrieval by word type, categorical strategies, or differences in temporal organization. Although the present results do not directly support or refute any current explanations for the animacy advantage, we suggest that measures of retrieval dynamics can help to inspire or constrain future accounts for this effect and can be incorporated into relevant hypothesis testing.

The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario1

Chapter three provides details of an experimental study conducted in 2016 to provide an evaluation of the efficacy of ACH in mitigating the cognitive biases of serial position effects and confirmation bias using the scoring systems of credibility of information and diagnostic value of information. The study is based on a disguised version of the intelligence case for both the biological and nuclear weapons capabilities of Saddam Hussein’s regime that was used to support the US decision to invade Iraq in 2003. The study shows that the version of ACH taught by the PHIA to the UK’s intelligence community between 2016-2017 has no statistically significant mitigating effect on the occurrence of serial position effects or confirmation bias.

Predicting Serial Position Effects1

Chapter four provides details of a meta-analysis conducted into serial position effects. The meta-analysis also identified whether there are any significant differences in the proportion of bias under different analytical conditions between belief adjustment conducted in an intelligence scenario and belief adjustment conducted in non-intelligence scenarios. The chapter argues that there is no compelling evidential basis to suggest that serial position effects or confirmation bias affect intelligence analysis differently from non-intelligence analysis. It will show that the analytical conditions of volume of information, reliance on recall, accountability and type of information likely have an impact on serial position effects. The results undermine key assumptions in predominant predictions models. This includes the belief-adjustment model for serial position effects (Hogarth and Einhorn 1992).

Predicting Confirmation Bias

Chapter five provides details of the meta-analyses into confirmation bias. It will show that the analytical conditions of diagnostic weighting of initial information, consistency of information, hypothesis testing instructions and type of information likely have an impact on confirmation bias. It will also show that the results undermine key assumptions in predominant predictions models the inability to identify diagnostic value of information theory concerning confirmation bias (Koslowski and Maqueda 1993, and Kuhn et al. 1988). The chapter proposes alternative models for predicting serial position effects and confirmation bias. These models argue that whilst the risk of occurrence of serial position effects and confirmation bias are impacted by different analytical conditions, they share an underlying cognitive process: a force towards forming a focal hypothesis early on in belief acquisition.

Long-term memory of real-world episodes is independent of recency effects: magic tricks as ecological tasks

How episodic memories decay is an unresolved question in cognitive neuroscience. The role of short-term mechanisms regarding the decay of episodic memories is circumscribed to set the maximum recall from which a monotonic decay occurs. However, this sequential view from the short to the long-term is not compulsory, as short-term dependent memory gains (like recency effects when memorizing a list of elements; serial-position effects) may not be translated into long-term memory differences. Moreover, producing memorable events in the laboratory faces important challenges, such as recreating realistic conditions with elevated recall, or avoiding spontaneous retrievals during memory retention (sociocultural hooks). Here we propose the use of magic to enhance the study of memory. We designed a sequence of magic tricks performed live on stage to evaluate the interaction between memory decay and serial-position effects of those tricks. The audience was asked to freely recall the tricks at four different timepoints: just after the show, 10 days, 1.5 months and 4.5 months. We discovered serial-position differences after the show that were no longer present later on, suggesting that short-term memory gains do not translate into the long-term. Illustrating the power of naturalistic stimuli to study long-term memory while interrogating the interaction between short-term and long-term mechanisms, this work is, to our knowledge, the first scientific study of the memorability of magic tricks.

Long-term memory of real-world episodes is independent of recency effects: magic tricks as ecological tasks.

How episodic memories decay is an unresolved question in cognitive neuroscience. The role of short-term mechanisms regarding the decay of episodic memories is circumscribed to set the maximum recall from which a monotonic decay occurs. However, this sequential view from the short to the long-term is not compulsory, as short-term dependent memory gains (like recency effects when memorizing a list of elements; serial-position effects) may not be translated into long-term memory differences. Moreover, producing memorable events in the laboratory faces important challenges, such as recreating realistic conditions with elevated recall, or avoiding spontaneous retrievals during memory retention (sociocultural hooks). Here we propose the use of magic to enhance the study of memory. We designed a sequence of magic tricks performed live on stage to evaluate the interaction between memory decay and serial-position effects of those tricks. The audience was asked to freely recall the tricks at four different timepoints: just after the show, 10 days, 1.5 months and 4.5 months. We discovered serial-position differences after the show that were no longer present later on, suggesting that short-term memory gains do not translate into the long-term. Illustrating the power of naturalistic stimuli to study long-term memory while interrogating the interaction between short-term and long-term mechanisms, this work is, to our knowledge, the first scientific study of the memorability of magic tricks.