scholarly journals PREDICTION OF OZONE (O3) VALUES USING SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION METHOD

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 81-88
Author(s):  
Chasandra Puspitasari ◽  
Nur Rokhman ◽  
Wahyono
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Polynomial Kernel ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Linear Kernel ◽  
Air Quality Prediction

A large number of motor vehicles that cause congestion is a major factor in the poor air quality in big cities. Ozone (O3) is one of the main indicators in measuring the level of air pollution in the city of Surabaya to find out how air quality. Prediction of Ozone (O3) value is important as a support for the community and government in efforts to improve the air quality. This study aims to predict the value of Ozone (O3) in the form of time series data using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method with the Linear, Polynomial, RBF, and ANOVA kernels. The data used in this study are 549 primary data from the daily average of ozone (O3) value of Surabaya in the period 1 July 2017 - 31 December 2018. The data will be used in the training and testing process until prediction results are obtained. The results obtained from this study are the Linear kernel produces the best prediction model with a MAPE value of 21.78% with a parameter value 𝜆 = 0.3; 𝜀 = 0.00001; cLR = 0.005; and C = 0.5. The results of the Polynomial kernel are not much different from the Linear kernel which has a MAPE value of 21.83%. While the RBF and ANOVA kernels each produce a model with MAPE value of 24.49% and 22.0%. These results indicate that the SVR method with the kernels used can predict Ozone values quite well.

scholarly journals Modeling Statistical Downscaling for Prediction Precipitation Dry Season in Bireuen District Province Aceh

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 74
Author(s):  
Juniana Husna ◽  
Sanusi Sanusi
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Polynomial Kernel ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Correlation Degree

The Asian-Australian monsoon circulation specifically causes the Indonesian region to go through climate changebility that impacts on rainfall variability in different Indonesia’s zone. Local climate conditions such as rainfall data are commonly simulated using GCM time series data. This study tries to model the statistical downscaling of GCM in the form of 7x7 matrix using Support Vector Regression (SVR) for rainfall forecasting during drought in Bireuen Regency, Aceh. The output yields optimal result using certain parameter i.e. C = 0.5, γ = 0.8, d = 1, and ↋= 0.01. The duration of computation during training and testing are ± 45 seconds for linear kernels and ± 2 minutes for polynomials. The correlation degree and RMSE values of GCM and the actually observed data at Gandapura wheather station are 0.672 and 21.106. The RSME value obtained in that region is the lowest compared to the Juli station which is equal to 31,428. However, the Juli station has the highest correlation value that is 0.677. On the other hand, the polynomial kernel has a correlation degree and RMSE value equal to 0.577 and 29,895 respectively. To summary, the best GCM using SVR kernel is the one at Gandapura weather station in consideration of having the lowest RMSE value with a high correlation degree.

scholarly journals Analisis Pola Prediksi Data Time Series menggunakan Support Vector Regression, Multilayer Perceptron, dan Regresi Linear Sederhana

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-287
Author(s):  
Ika Oktavianti ◽  
Ermatita Ermatita ◽  
Dian Palupi Rini
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Multilayer Perceptron ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Testing Data

Licensing services is one of the forms of public services that important in supporting increased investment in Indonesia and is currently carried out by the Investment and Licensing Services Department. The problems that occur in general are the length of time to process licenses and one of the contributing factors is the limited number of licensing officers. Licensing data is a time series data which have monthly observation. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVR) is used as machine learning techniques to predict licensing pattern based on time series data. Of the data used dataset 1 and dataset 2, the sharing of training data and testing data is equal to 70% and 30% with consideration that training data must be more than testing data. The result of the study showed for Dataset 1, the ANN-Multilayer Perceptron have a better performance than Support Vector Regression (SVR) with MSE, MAE and RMSE values is 251.09, 11.45, and 15.84. Then for dataset 2, SVR-Linear has better performance than MLP with values of MSE, MAE and RMSE of 1839.93, 32.80, and 42.89. The dataset used to predict the number of permissions is dataset 2. The study also used the Simple Linear Regression (SLR) method to see the causal relationship between the number of licenses issued and licensing service officers. The result is that the relationship between the number of licenses issued and the number of service officers is less significant because there are other factors that affect the number of licenses.  

scholarly journals Effect of COVID-19 pandemic induced lockdown (general holiday) on air quality of Dhaka City

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Saiful Islam ◽  
Tahmid Anam Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Urban Air Pollution ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dhaka City ◽  
Criteria Pollutants ◽  
Us Epa

Abstract A worldwide pandemic of COVID-19 has forced to implement a lockdown during April-May 2020 by restricting people's movement, the shutdown of industries and motor vehicles in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to contain the virus. This type of strict measures returned an outcome of the reduction of urban air pollution around the world. The present study aims to investigate the reduction of the concentration of pollutants in the air of Dhaka City and the reduction of the Air Quality Index (AQI). Necessary time-series data of the concentration of PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO have been collected from the archive of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and Sentinel-5P. The time-series data have been analyzed by descriptive statistics, and AQI is calculated following an appropriate formula suggested by US EPA based on the criteria pollutants. The study found that the concentrations of PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO have been reduced by 23, 30, 07, and 07% during April-May 2020, respectively, compared with the preceding year's concentration. Moreover, the AQI has also been reduced by up to 35% than the previous year in April-May 2020. However, the magnitude of pollution reduction in Dhaka is lower than other cities and countries globally, including Delhi, Sao Paulo, Wuhan, Spain, Italy, USA, etc. The main reason includes the poor implementation of lockdown, especially in the first week of April and the second fortnight of May. The findings will be useful for policymakers to find a way to control the pollution sources to enhance Dhaka's air quality.

scholarly journals A Novel Time Series Prediction Approach Based on a Hybridization of Least Squares Support Vector Regression and Swarm Intelligence

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nhat-Duc Hoang ◽  
Anh-Duc Pham ◽  
Minh-Tu Cao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Prediction Approach

This research aims at establishing a novel hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) approach, named as firefly-tuned least squares support vector regression for time series prediction(FLSVRTSP). The proposed model utilizes the least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) as a supervised learning technique to generalize the mapping function between input and output of time series data. In order to optimize the LS-SVR’s tuning parameters, theFLSVRTSPincorporates the firefly algorithm (FA) as the search engine. Consequently, the newly construction model can learn from historical data and carry out prediction autonomously without any prior knowledge in parameter setting. Experimental results and comparison have demonstrated that theFLSVRTSPhas achieved a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy when predicting both artificial and real-world time series data. Hence, the proposed hybrid approach is a promising alternative for assisting decision-makers to better cope with time series prediction.

scholarly journals Novelty detection for time series data analysis in water distribution systems using support vector machines

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 672-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen R. Mounce ◽  
Richard B. Mounce ◽  
Joby B. Boxall
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Anomaly Detection ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Water Distribution Systems ◽  
Kernel Functions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector

The sampling frequency and quantity of time series data collected from water distribution systems has been increasing in recent years, giving rise to the potential for improving system knowledge if suitable automated techniques can be applied, in particular, machine learning. Novelty (or anomaly) detection refers to the automatic identification of novel or abnormal patterns embedded in large amounts of “normal” data. When dealing with time series data (transformed into vectors), this means abnormal events embedded amongst many normal time series points. The support vector machine is a data-driven statistical technique that has been developed as a tool for classification and regression. The key features include statistical robustness with respect to non-Gaussian errors and outliers, the selection of the decision boundary in a principled way, and the introduction of nonlinearity in the feature space without explicitly requiring a nonlinear algorithm by means of kernel functions. In this research, support vector regression is used as a learning method for anomaly detection from water flow and pressure time series data. No use is made of past event histories collected through other information sources. The support vector regression methodology, whose robustness derives from the training error function, is applied to a case study.

Performance degradation prediction of aeroengine based on attention model and support vector regression

2021 ◽  
pp. 095441002110147
Author(s):  
Changchang Che ◽  
Huawei Wang ◽  
Xiaomei Ni ◽  
Qiang Fu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Performance Degradation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Attention Model ◽  
Multiple State ◽  
And Performance

Accurate performance degradation prediction of aeroengines can ensure the safety and reliability of the aircraft. Based on the mass long time series data of multiple state parameters, a novel performance degradation prediction method based on attention model (AM) and support vector regression (SVR) is proposed in this article. The AM uses the attention mechanism between encoder and decoder to realize weight distribution of different source samples, so as to realize time series prediction of state parameters. The SVR model is used to mine the mapping relationship between multiple state parameters and performance degradation. The performance degradation prediction results can be achieved by putting the time series prediction results of multiple state parameters into the SVR model. The turbofan engine degradation simulation dataset carried out using commercial modular aero-propulsion system simulation (C-MAPSS) is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that it can get accurate time series prediction and performance degradation analysis results. Compared with other methods, the proposed attention model and support vector regression (AM-SVR) model has lower prediction error and higher stability when dealing with noised samples.

scholarly journals Planning Total Veener Production PT. XYZ

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Krisna Risky Putra Irawan ◽  
Tedjo Sukmono
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Efficient Production ◽  
Production Forecasting ◽  
Data Application ◽  
Rbf Kernel ◽  
Accurate Forecast

PT. XYZ is engaged in the manufacture and sale of wood veneers. Starting from the constant occurrence of over stock, now the company must make improvements to the production forecasting process so that over stock can be avoided. It can be seen that accurate production forecasting can create conditions for an effective and efficient production system. This study aims to obtain a more accurate forecast of material requirements using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method, which is the result of the development of a Support Vector Machine (SVM) which has good performance in predicting time series data. Application of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method with the RBF kernel in predicting the need for veneer production using the MATLAB application, it produces the smallest error rate with a MAPE of 5%, RMSE of 4364.63 and of 0.748274147. on  67 training data and 20 testing data.

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