scholarly journals Knowledge Mapping in Electricity Demand Forecasting: A Scientometric Insight

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongchuan Yang ◽  
Ju-e Guo ◽  
Jie Li ◽  
Shouyang Wang ◽  
Shaolong Sun
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Cooperative Networks ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Knowledge Mapping ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
The Past ◽  
Electricity Demand Forecasting ◽  
Current State ◽  
Emerging Trends

Electricity demand forecasting plays a fundamental role in the operation and planning procedures of power systems, and the publications related to electricity demand forecasting have attracted more and more attention in the past few years. To have a better understanding of the knowledge structure in the field of electricity demand forecasting, we applied scientometric methods to analyze the current state and the emerging trends based on the 831 publications from the Web of Science Core Collection during the past 20 years (1999–2018). Employing statistical description analysis, cooperative network analysis, keyword co-occurrence analysis, co-citation analysis, cluster analysis, and emerging trend analysis techniques, this study gives a comprehensive overview of the most critical countries, institutions, journals, authors, and publications in this field, cooperative networks relationships, research hotspots, and emerging trends. The results can provide meaningful guidance and helpful insights for researchers to enhance the understanding of crucial research, emerging trends, and new developments in electricity demand forecasting.

scholarly journals Decomposition-Based Dynamic Adaptive Combination Forecasting for Monthly Electricity Demand

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhineng Hu ◽  
Jing Ma ◽  
Liangwei Yang ◽  
Xiaoping Li ◽  
Meng Pang
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Adaptive Combination ◽  
Electricity Demand Forecasting ◽  
Combination Forecasting ◽  
Combination Forecasting Model

(1) Background: Electricity consumption data are often made up of complex, unstable series that have different fluctuation characteristics in different industries. However, electricity demand forecasting is a prerequisite for the control and scheduling of power systems. (2) Methods: As most previous research has focused on prediction accuracy rather than stability, this paper developed a decomposition-based combination forecasting model using dynamic adaptive entropy-based weighting for total electricity demand forecasting at the engineering level. (3) Results: To further illustrate the prediction accuracy and stationarity of the proposed method, a comparison analysis using an analysis of variance and an orthogonal approach to solve the least squares equations was conducted using classical individual models, a combination forecasting model, and a decomposition-based combination forecasting model. The proposed method had a very satisfactory overall performance with good verification and validation compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural-networks (ANN). (4) Conclusion: As the proposed method dynamically combines various forecast models and can decompose and adapt to various characteristic data sets, it was found to have an accurate, stable forecast performance. Therefore, it could be broadly applied to forecasting electricity demand and developing electricity generation plans and related energy policies.

Analysis of Time Series Models for Brazilian Electricity Demand Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Eduardo Velasquez Cabrera ◽  
Matheus Zocatelli ◽  
Fidellis B.G.L. e Estanislau ◽  
Victor Faria
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Electricity Demand Forecasting ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

scholarly journals Electricity demand forecasting in industrial and residential facilities using ensemble machine learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Porteiro ◽  
Luis Hernández-Callejo ◽  
Sergio Nesmachnow
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Residential Facilities ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Electricity Demand Forecasting ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Ensemble Machine Learning ◽  
Ensemble Strategy

This article presents electricity demand forecasting models for industrial and residential facilities, developed using ensemble machine learning strategies. Short term electricity demand forecasting is beneficial for both consumers and suppliers, as it allows improving energy efficiency policies and the rational use of resources. Computational intelligence models are developed for day-ahead electricity demand forecasting. An ensemble strategy is applied to build the day-ahead forecasting model based on several one-hour models. Three steps of data preprocessing are carried out, including treating missing values, removing outliers, and standardization. Feature extraction is performed to reduce overfitting, reducing the training time and improving the accuracy. The best model is optimized using grid search strategies on hyperparameter space. Then, an ensemble of 24 instances is generated to build the complete day-ahead forecasting model. Considering the computational complexity of the applied techniques, they are developed and evaluated on the National Supercomputing Center (Cluster-UY), Uruguay. Three different real data sets are used for evaluation: an industrial park in Burgos (Spain), the total electricity demand for Uruguay, and demand from a distribution substation in Montevideo (Uruguay). Standard performance metrics are applied to evaluate the proposed models. The main results indicate that the best day ahead model based on ExtraTreesRegressor has a mean absolute percentage error of 2:55% on industrial data, 5:17% on total consumption data and 9:09% on substation data. 

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