scholarly journals The Second Wave of COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia and the Effects of Vaccination

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitao Song ◽  
Guihong Fan ◽  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Xueying Wang ◽  
Daihai He
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
South And Southeast Asia ◽  
International Attention ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Death Data

Background: By February 2021, the overall impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South and Southeast Asia was relatively mild. Surprisingly, in early April 2021, the second wave significantly impacted the population and garnered widespread international attention.Methods: This study focused on the nine countries with the highest cumulative deaths from the disease as of August 17, 2021. We look at COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South and Southeast Asia using the reported death data, which fits a mathematical model with a time-varying transmission rate.Results: We estimated the transmission rate, infection fatality rate (IFR), infection attack rate (IAR), and the effects of vaccination in the nine countries in South and Southeast Asia. Our study suggested that the IAR is still low in most countries, and increased vaccination is required to prevent future waves.Conclusion: Implementing non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) could have helped South and Southeast Asia keep COVID-19 under control in 2020, as demonstrated in our estimated low-transmission rate. We believe that the emergence of the new Delta variant, social unrest, and migrant workers could have triggered the second wave of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The second wave of COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia and vaccination effects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitao Song ◽  
Guihong Fan ◽  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Xueying Wang ◽  
Daihai He
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
South And Southeast Asia ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Death Data

Abstract Background By February 2021, the overall impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South and Southeast Asia had been relatively mild. Surprisingly, the second wave in early April 2021 in this region becomes devastating and attracts worldwide attention. Methods We focus on the nine countries with the highest accumulative deaths due to the disease by July 30, 2021. We study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia using the reported death data and fit into a mathematical model with time varying transmission rate. Results We estimated the transmission rate, the infection fatality rate, and the infection attack rate, the effects of vaccination in the nine countries in South and Southeast Asia. Our study suggests that the infection attack rate is still low in most of the countries and vaccination is needed to prevent further waves. Conclusion The implementation of the non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) could have helped South and Southeast Asia to keep the COVID-19 under control in 2020 as reflected in our estimated low transmission rate. Factors like the emergence of the new Delta variant, social unrest, and migrant workers could have been the trigger of the second wave of COVID-19. Trial registration. NA

scholarly journals Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak Prediction Using Epidemiological Models of Richards Gompertz Logistic Ratkowsky and SIRD

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sedaghat ◽  
Seyed Amir Abbas Oloomi ◽  
Mahdi Ashtian Malayer ◽  
Nima Rezaei ◽  
Amir Mosavi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Second Peak

AbstractOn 30 July 2020, a total number of 301,530 diagnosed COVID-19 cases were reported in Iran, with 261,200 recovered and 16,569 dead. The COVID-19 pandemic started with 2 patients in Qom city in Iran on 20 February 2020. Accurate prediction of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the total number of populations affected is challenging. In this study, several widely used models, including Richards, Gompertz, Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models, are used to project dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the future of Iran by fitting the present and the past clinical data. Iran is the only country facing a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which makes its data difficult to analyze. The present study’s main contribution is to forecast the near-future of COVID-19 trends to allow non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) by public health authorities and/or government policymakers. We have divided the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran into two waves, Wave I, from February 20, 2020 to May 4, 2020, and Wave II from May 5, 2020, to the present. Two statistical methods, i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and the coefficient of determination (R2), are used to assess the accuracy of studied models. Results for Wave I Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models have correctly fitted COVID-19 data in Iran. SIRD model has fitted the first peak of infection very closely on April 6, 2020, with 34,447 cases (The actual peak day was April 7, 2020, with 30,387 active infected patients) with the re-production number R0=3.95. Results of Wave II indicate that the SIRD model has precisely fitted with the second peak of infection, which was on June 20, 2020, with 19,088 active infected cases compared with the actual peak day on June 21, 2020, with 17,644 cases. In Wave II, the re-production number R0=1.45 is reduced, indicating a lower transmission rate. We aimed to provide even a rough project future trends of COVID-19 in Iran for NPI decisions. Between 180,000 to 250,000 infected cases and a death toll of between 6,000 to 65,000 cases are expected in Wave II of COVID-19 in Iran. There is currently no analytical method to project more waves of COVID-19 beyond Wave II.

scholarly journals Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak Prediction Using Epidemiological Models of Richards Gompertz Logistic Ratkowsky and SIRD

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sedaghat ◽  
Seyed Amir Abbas Oloomi ◽  
Ashtian Malayer ◽  
Nima Rezaei ◽  
Amir Mosavi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Second Peak

On 30 July 2020, a total number of 301,530 diagnosed COVID-19 cases were reported in Iran, with 261,200 recovered and 16,569 dead. The COVID-19 pandemic started with 2 patients in Qom city in Iran on 20 February 2020. Accurate prediction of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the total number of populations affected is challenging. In this study, several widely used models, including Richards, Gompertz, Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models, are used to project dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the future of Iran by fitting the present and the past clinical data. Iran is the only country facing a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which makes its data difficult to analyze. The present study's main contribution is to forecast the near-future of COVID-19 trends to allow non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) by public health authorities and/or government policymakers. We have divided the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran into two waves, Wave I, from February 20, 2020 to May 4, 2020, and Wave II from May 5, 2020, to the present. Two statistical methods, i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and the coefficient of determination (R2), are used to assess the accuracy of studied models. Results for Wave I Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models have correctly fitted COVID-19 data in Iran. SIRD model has fitted the first peak of infection very closely on April 6, 2020, with 34,447 cases (The actual peak day was April 7, 2020, with 30,387 active infected patients) with the re-production number R0=3.95. Results of Wave II indicate that the SIRD model has precisely fitted with the second peak of infection, which was on June 20, 2020, with 19,088 active infected cases compared with the actual peak day on June 21, 2020, with 17,644 cases. In Wave II, the re-production number R0=1.45 is reduced, indicating a lower transmission rate. We aimed to provide even a rough project future trends of COVID-19 in Iran for NPI decisions. Between 180,000 to 250,000 infected cases and a death toll of between 6,000 to 65,000 cases are expected in Wave II of COVID-19 in Iran. There is currently no analytical method to project more waves of COVID-19 beyond Wave II.

scholarly journals Interventional nephrology and vascular access practice: A perspective from South and Southeast Asia

2021 ◽  
pp. 112972982110113
Author(s):  
Raja Ramachandran ◽  
Vinant Bhargava ◽  
Sanjiv Jasuja ◽  
Maurizio Gallieni ◽  
Vivekanand Jha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Vascular Access ◽  
Central Catheter ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
South And Southeast Asia ◽  
Group 2 ◽  
Venous Fistula ◽  
Economic Constraints ◽  
Group 1

South and Southeast Asia is the most populated, heterogeneous part of the world. The Association of Vascular Access and InTerventionAl Renal physicians (AVATAR Foundation), India, gathered trends on epidemiology and Interventional Nephrology (IN) for this region. The countries were divided as upper-middle- and higher-income countries as Group-1 and lower and lower-middle-income countries as Group-2. Forty-three percent and 70% patients in the Group 1 and 2 countries had unplanned hemodialysis (HD) initiation. Among the incident HD patients, the dominant Vascular Access (VA) was non-tunneled central catheter (non-TCC) in 70% of Group 2 and tunneled central catheter (TCC) in 32.5% in Group 1 countries. Arterio-Venous Fistula (AVF) in the incident HD patients was observed in 24.5% and 35% of patients in Group-2 and Group-1, respectively. Eight percent and 68.7% of the prevalent HD patients in Group-2 and Group-1 received HD through an AVF respectively. Nephrologists performing any IN procedure were 90% and 60% in Group-2 and Group 1, respectively. The common procedures performed by nephrologists include renal biopsy (93.3%), peritoneal dialysis (PD) catheter insertion (80%), TCC (66.7%) and non-TCC (100%). Constraints for IN include lack of time (73.3%), lack of back-up (40%), lack of training (73.3%), economic issues (33.3%), medico-legal problems (46.6%), no incentive (20%), other interests (46.6%) and institution not supportive (26%). Routine VA surveillance is performed in 12.5% and 83.3% of Group-2 and Group-1, respectively. To conclude, non-TCC and TCC are the most common vascular access in incident HD patients in Group-2 and Group-1, respectively. Lack of training, back-up support and economic constraints were main constraints for IN growth in Group-2 countries.

scholarly journals Postcolonial International Law Discourses on Regional Developments in South and Southeast Asia

2008 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diane A. Desierto
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
International Law ◽  
International Economic Order ◽  
Southeast Asian ◽  
Self Determination ◽  
International Humanitarian Law ◽  
Humanitarian Law ◽  
South And Southeast Asia ◽  
International Legal Order ◽  
International Legal System

The development of international law in South and Southeast Asia exemplifies myriad ideological strands, historical origins, and significant contributions to contemporary international law doctrines’ formative and codification processes. From the beginnings of South and Southeast Asian participation in the international legal order, international law discourse from these regions has been thematicallypostcolonialand substantivelydevelopment-oriented.Postcolonialism in South and Southeast Asian conceptions of international law is an ongoing dialectical project of revisioning international legal thought and its normative directions — towards identifying, collocating, and applying South and Southeast Asian values and philosophical traditions alongside the Euro-American ideologies that, since the classical Post-Westphalian era, have largely infused the content of positivist international law. Of increasing necessity to the intricacies of the postmodern international legal system and its institutions is how the postcolonial project of South and Southeast Asian international legal discourse focuses on areas of international law that create the most urgent development consequences: trade, investment, and the international economic order; the law of the sea and the environment; international humanitarian law, self-determination, socio-economic and cultural human rights.

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