scholarly journals Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak Prediction Using Epidemiological Models of Richards Gompertz Logistic Ratkowsky and SIRD

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sedaghat ◽  
Seyed Amir Abbas Oloomi ◽  
Mahdi Ashtian Malayer ◽  
Nima Rezaei ◽  
Amir Mosavi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Second Peak

AbstractOn 30 July 2020, a total number of 301,530 diagnosed COVID-19 cases were reported in Iran, with 261,200 recovered and 16,569 dead. The COVID-19 pandemic started with 2 patients in Qom city in Iran on 20 February 2020. Accurate prediction of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the total number of populations affected is challenging. In this study, several widely used models, including Richards, Gompertz, Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models, are used to project dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the future of Iran by fitting the present and the past clinical data. Iran is the only country facing a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which makes its data difficult to analyze. The present study’s main contribution is to forecast the near-future of COVID-19 trends to allow non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) by public health authorities and/or government policymakers. We have divided the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran into two waves, Wave I, from February 20, 2020 to May 4, 2020, and Wave II from May 5, 2020, to the present. Two statistical methods, i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and the coefficient of determination (R2), are used to assess the accuracy of studied models. Results for Wave I Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models have correctly fitted COVID-19 data in Iran. SIRD model has fitted the first peak of infection very closely on April 6, 2020, with 34,447 cases (The actual peak day was April 7, 2020, with 30,387 active infected patients) with the re-production number R0=3.95. Results of Wave II indicate that the SIRD model has precisely fitted with the second peak of infection, which was on June 20, 2020, with 19,088 active infected cases compared with the actual peak day on June 21, 2020, with 17,644 cases. In Wave II, the re-production number R0=1.45 is reduced, indicating a lower transmission rate. We aimed to provide even a rough project future trends of COVID-19 in Iran for NPI decisions. Between 180,000 to 250,000 infected cases and a death toll of between 6,000 to 65,000 cases are expected in Wave II of COVID-19 in Iran. There is currently no analytical method to project more waves of COVID-19 beyond Wave II.

scholarly journals Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak Prediction Using Epidemiological Models of Richards Gompertz Logistic Ratkowsky and SIRD

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sedaghat ◽  
Seyed Amir Abbas Oloomi ◽  
Ashtian Malayer ◽  
Nima Rezaei ◽  
Amir Mosavi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Second Peak

On 30 July 2020, a total number of 301,530 diagnosed COVID-19 cases were reported in Iran, with 261,200 recovered and 16,569 dead. The COVID-19 pandemic started with 2 patients in Qom city in Iran on 20 February 2020. Accurate prediction of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the total number of populations affected is challenging. In this study, several widely used models, including Richards, Gompertz, Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models, are used to project dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the future of Iran by fitting the present and the past clinical data. Iran is the only country facing a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which makes its data difficult to analyze. The present study's main contribution is to forecast the near-future of COVID-19 trends to allow non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) by public health authorities and/or government policymakers. We have divided the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran into two waves, Wave I, from February 20, 2020 to May 4, 2020, and Wave II from May 5, 2020, to the present. Two statistical methods, i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and the coefficient of determination (R2), are used to assess the accuracy of studied models. Results for Wave I Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models have correctly fitted COVID-19 data in Iran. SIRD model has fitted the first peak of infection very closely on April 6, 2020, with 34,447 cases (The actual peak day was April 7, 2020, with 30,387 active infected patients) with the re-production number R0=3.95. Results of Wave II indicate that the SIRD model has precisely fitted with the second peak of infection, which was on June 20, 2020, with 19,088 active infected cases compared with the actual peak day on June 21, 2020, with 17,644 cases. In Wave II, the re-production number R0=1.45 is reduced, indicating a lower transmission rate. We aimed to provide even a rough project future trends of COVID-19 in Iran for NPI decisions. Between 180,000 to 250,000 infected cases and a death toll of between 6,000 to 65,000 cases are expected in Wave II of COVID-19 in Iran. There is currently no analytical method to project more waves of COVID-19 beyond Wave II.

scholarly journals Incentivizing hospital infection control

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (13) ◽  
pp. 6221-6225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E. Drohan ◽  
Simon A. Levin ◽  
Bryan T. Grenfell ◽  
Ramanan Laxminarayan
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Economic Incentive ◽  
Hospital Infection ◽  
Fixed Amount ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Hospital Infection Control ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
The Impact

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) pose a significant burden to patient safety. Institutions can implement hospital infection control (HIC) measures to reduce the impact of HAIs. Since patients can carry pathogens between institutions, there is an economic incentive for hospitals to free ride on the HIC investments of other facilities. Subsidies for infection control by public health authorities could encourage regional spending on HIC. We develop coupled mathematical models of epidemiology and hospital behavior in a game-theoretic framework to investigate how hospitals may change spending behavior in response to subsidies. We demonstrate that under a limited budget, a dollar-for-dollar matching grant outperforms both a fixed-amount subsidy and a subsidy on uninfected patients in reducing the number of HAIs in a single institution. Additionally, when multiple hospitals serve a community, funding priority should go to the hospital with a lower transmission rate. Overall, subsidies incentivize HIC spending and reduce the overall prevalence of HAIs.

scholarly journals The Second Wave of COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia and the Effects of Vaccination

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitao Song ◽  
Guihong Fan ◽  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Xueying Wang ◽  
Daihai He
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
South And Southeast Asia ◽  
International Attention ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Death Data

Background: By February 2021, the overall impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South and Southeast Asia was relatively mild. Surprisingly, in early April 2021, the second wave significantly impacted the population and garnered widespread international attention.Methods: This study focused on the nine countries with the highest cumulative deaths from the disease as of August 17, 2021. We look at COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South and Southeast Asia using the reported death data, which fits a mathematical model with a time-varying transmission rate.Results: We estimated the transmission rate, infection fatality rate (IFR), infection attack rate (IAR), and the effects of vaccination in the nine countries in South and Southeast Asia. Our study suggested that the IAR is still low in most countries, and increased vaccination is required to prevent future waves.Conclusion: Implementing non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) could have helped South and Southeast Asia keep COVID-19 under control in 2020, as demonstrated in our estimated low-transmission rate. We believe that the emergence of the new Delta variant, social unrest, and migrant workers could have triggered the second wave of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Vertical Infestation Profile of Aedes in Selected Urban High-Rise Residences in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nurulhusna Ab Hamid ◽  
Siti Nurfadhlina Mohd Noor ◽  
Nur Rasyidah Isa ◽  
Rohaiyu Md Rodzay ◽  
Ainaa Mardia Bachtiar Effendi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Habitat Type ◽  
Urban Centers ◽  
High Rise ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
And Behavior

Dengue is placing huge burdens on the Malaysian healthcare system as well as the economy. With the expansion in the number of high-rise residential buildings, particularly in the urban centers, the flight range and behavior of Aedes mosquitoes may be altered in this habitat type. In this study, we aimed to expand the understanding of the vertical distribution and dispersal of Aedes in nine selected high-rise residences in Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, and Johor using ovitraps as the sampling method. We discovered that Ae. aegypti is the predominant species in all study sites. Both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus are most abundant within the first three levels and could be found up to level 21 (approximately 61.1–63.0 m). Pearson correlation analyses exhibited negative correlations in eight out of nine study sites between the ovitrap indexes (OIs) within each floor level, suggesting that Aedes density decreased as the building level increased. Our findings provide information to the public health authorities on ‘hot spot’ floors for effective suppression of dengue transmission.

scholarly journals The Reopening of Schools and Adoption of Universal Wearing of Face Masks in Anticipation of Sustained Transmission or the Second Wave of COVID-19 with the Influenza Virus

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Sasho Stoleski
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Influenza Virus ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Morbidity ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
12Th Grade ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Environmental Surface ◽  
Second Wave

The Covid-19 pandemic has swept rapidly from Wuhan, China to the entire globe in less than six months, infecting over 7 million people and claiming the lives of over 500,000. In the United States, greater than 2 million individuals have become infected and over 110,000 people killed. With no evidence of slowing of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, public health authorities must prepare for possible sustained transmission of Covid-19, or a second wave into the Fall 2020, but with the presence of the influenza A virus. In the Fall 2020, schools will reopen from kindergarten to 12th grade. Dual pandemics or epidemics will result in high morbidity and mortality not observed when either virus was solely active. Community leaders, educational administrators and public health systems must be prepared for simultaneous outbreaks of both Covid-19 and influenza. Although there are no clinical studies that have evaluated the benefits on the use of face masks during an epidemic or pandemic, public health non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPIs) measures should include the routine use of face masks during school sessions. Using face masks with other NPI may interrupt viral transmission as it has been established that respiratory viruses, such as Covid-19 and the influenza virus are transmitted via respiratory droplets, aerosols, and environmental surface contact.

scholarly journals The second wave of COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia and vaccination effects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitao Song ◽  
Guihong Fan ◽  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Xueying Wang ◽  
Daihai He
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
South And Southeast Asia ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Death Data

Abstract Background By February 2021, the overall impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South and Southeast Asia had been relatively mild. Surprisingly, the second wave in early April 2021 in this region becomes devastating and attracts worldwide attention. Methods We focus on the nine countries with the highest accumulative deaths due to the disease by July 30, 2021. We study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia using the reported death data and fit into a mathematical model with time varying transmission rate. Results We estimated the transmission rate, the infection fatality rate, and the infection attack rate, the effects of vaccination in the nine countries in South and Southeast Asia. Our study suggests that the infection attack rate is still low in most of the countries and vaccination is needed to prevent further waves. Conclusion The implementation of the non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) could have helped South and Southeast Asia to keep the COVID-19 under control in 2020 as reflected in our estimated low transmission rate. Factors like the emergence of the new Delta variant, social unrest, and migrant workers could have been the trigger of the second wave of COVID-19. Trial registration. NA

scholarly journals Users’ Beliefs Toward Physical Distancing in Facebook Pages of Public Health Authorities During COVID-19 Pandemic in Early 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 109019812110144
Author(s):  
Soon Guan Tan ◽  
Aravind Sesagiri Raamkumar ◽  
Hwee Lin Wee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Belief Model ◽  
United States Public Health ◽  
Health Belief ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Belief Model ◽  
The Health Belief Model

This study aims to describe Facebook users’ beliefs toward physical distancing measures implemented during the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic using the key constructs of the health belief model. A combination of rule-based filtering and manual classification methods was used to classify user comments on COVID-19 Facebook posts of three public health authorities: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States, Public Health England, and Ministry of Health, Singapore. A total of 104,304 comments were analyzed for posts published between 1 January, 2020, and 31 March, 2020, along with COVID-19 cases and deaths count data from the three countries. Findings indicate that the perceived benefits of physical distancing measures ( n = 3,463; 3.3%) was three times higher than perceived barriers ( n = 1,062; 1.0%). Perceived susceptibility to COVID-19 ( n = 2,934; 2.8%) was higher compared with perceived severity ( n = 2,081; 2.0%). Although susceptibility aspects of physical distancing were discussed more often at the start of the year, mentions on the benefits of intervention emerged stronger toward the end of the analysis period, highlighting the shift in beliefs. The health belief model is useful for understanding Facebook users’ beliefs at a basic level, and it provides a scope for further improvement.

scholarly journals Contrasting Influences of Seasonal and Intra-Seasonal Hydroclimatic Variabilities on the Irrigated Rice Paddies of Northern Peninsular Malaysia for Weather Index Insurance Design

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5207
Author(s):  
Zed Zulkafli ◽  
Farrah Melissa Muharam ◽  
Nurfarhana Raffar ◽  
Amirparsa Jajarmizadeh ◽  
Mukhtar Jibril Abdi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Index Insurance ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Basis Risk ◽  
Insurance Contracts ◽  
Weather Index Insurance ◽  
Streamflow Statistics

Good index selection is key to minimising basis risk in weather index insurance design. However, interannual, seasonal, and intra-seasonal hydroclimatic variabilities pose challenges in identifying robust proxies for crop losses. In this study, we systematically investigated 574 hydroclimatic indices for their relationships with yield in Malaysia’s irrigated double planting system, using the Muda rice granary as a case study. The responses of seasonal rice yields to seasonal and monthly averages and to extreme rainfall, temperature, and streamflow statistics from 16 years’ observations were examined by using correlation analysis and linear regression. We found that the minimum temperature during the crop flowering to the maturity phase governed yield in the drier off-season (season 1, March to July, Pearson correlation, r = +0.87; coefficient of determination, R2 = 74%). In contrast, the average streamflow during the crop maturity phase regulated yield in the main planting season (season 2, September to January, r = +0.82, R2 = 67%). During the respective periods, these indices were at their lowest in the seasons. Based on these findings, we recommend temperature- and water-supply-based indices as the foundations for developing insurance contracts for the rice system in northern Peninsular Malaysia.

scholarly journals A Raman algorithm to estimate human age from protein structural variations in autopsy skin samples: a protein biological clock

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisuke Miyamori ◽  
Takeshi Uemura ◽  
Wenliang Zhu ◽  
Kei Fujikawa ◽  
Takaaki Nakaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Protein Folding ◽  
Age Estimation ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Biological Clock ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Forensic Identification ◽  
Random Coil ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Skin Samples

AbstractThe recent increase of the number of unidentified cadavers has become a serious problem throughout the world. As a simple and objective method for age estimation, we attempted to utilize Raman spectrometry for forensic identification. Raman spectroscopy is an optical-based vibrational spectroscopic technique that provides detailed information regarding a sample’s molecular composition and structures. Building upon our previous proof-of-concept study, we measured the Raman spectra of abdominal skin samples from 132 autopsy cases and the protein-folding intensity ratio, RPF, defined as the ratio between the Raman signals from a random coil an α-helix. There was a strong negative correlation between age and RPF with a Pearson correlation coefficient of r = 0.878. Four models, based on linear (RPF), squared (RPF2), sex, and RPF by sex interaction terms, were examined. The results of cross validation suggested that the second model including linear and squared terms was the best model with the lowest root mean squared error (11.3 years of age) and the highest coefficient of determination (0.743). Our results indicate that the there was a high correlation between the age and RPF and the Raman biological clock of protein folding can be used as a simple and objective forensic age estimation method for unidentified cadavers.

scholarly journals Fueling the Covid-19 pandemic: summer school holidays and incidence rates in German districts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Plümper ◽  
Eric Neumayer
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Summer School ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Holiday Period ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities

AbstractBackgroundThe Robert-Koch-Institute reports that during the summer holiday period a foreign country is stated as the most likely place of infection for an average of 27 and a maximum of 49% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany.MethodsCross-sectional study on observational data. In Germany, summer school holidays are coordinated between states and spread out over 13 weeks. Employing a dynamic model with district fixed effects, we analyze the association between these holidays and weekly incidence rates across 401 German districts.ResultsWe find effects of the holiday period of around 45% of the average district incidence rates in Germany during their respective final week of holidays and the 2 weeks after holidays end. Western states tend to experience stronger effects than Eastern states. We also find statistically significant interaction effects of school holidays with per capita taxable income and the share of foreign residents in a district’s population.ConclusionsOur results suggest that changed behavior during the holiday season accelerated the pandemic and made it considerably more difficult for public health authorities to contain the spread of the virus by means of contact tracing. Germany’s public health authorities did not prepare adequately for this acceleration.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document