scholarly journals Mesoscale Model Simulation of a Severe Summer Thunderstorm in The Netherlands: Performance and Uncertainty Assessment for Parameterised and Resolved Convection

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 811
Author(s):  
Gert-Jan Steeneveld ◽  
Esther E.M. Peerlings
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Spatial Uncertainty ◽  
Moisture Distribution ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Grey Zone ◽  
Grid Spacing

On the evening of 23 June 2016 around 18:00 UTC, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) with hail and wind gusts passed the southern province Noord-Brabant in the Netherlands, and caused 675 millions of euros damage. This study evaluates the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with three cumulus parameterisation schemes (Betts–Miller–Janjic, Grell–Freitas and Kain–Fritsch) on a grid spacing of 4 km in the ‘grey-zone’ and with explicitly resolved convection at 2 and 4 km grid spacing. The results of the five experiments are evaluated against observations of accumulated rainfall, maximum radar reflectivity, the CAPE evolution and wind speed. The results show that the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme is activated too early and can therefore not predict any MCS over the region of interest. The Grell–Freitas and Kain–Fritsch schemes do predict an MCS, but its intensity is underestimated. With the explicit convection, the model is able to resolve the storm, though with a delay and an overestimated intensity. We also study whether spatial uncertainty in soil moisture is scaled up differently using parameterised or explicitly resolved convection. We find that the uncertainty in soil moisture distribution results in larger uncertainty in convective activity in the runs with explicit convection and the Grell–Freitas scheme, while the Kain–Fritsch and Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme clearly present a smaller variability.

Subkilometer Simulation of a Torrential-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective System in East China. Part I: Model Verification and Convective Organization

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (1) ◽  
pp. 184-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Man Zhang ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
East China ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Torrential Rain ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Torrential Rainfall

Abstract A nocturnal torrential-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurring during the mei-yu season of July 2003 in east China is studied using conventional observations, surface mesoanalysis, satellite and radar data, and a 24-h multinested model simulation with the finest grid spacing of 444 m. Observational analyses reveal the presence of several larger-scale conditions that were favorable for the development of the MCS, including mei-yu frontal lifting, moderate cold advection aloft and a moist monsoonal flow below, and an elongated old cold dome left behind by a previously dissipated MCS. Results show that the model could reproduce the evolution of the dissipating MCS and its associated cold outflows, the triggering of three separate convective storms over the remnant cold dome and the subsequent organization into a large MCS, and the convective generation of an intense surface meso-high and meso-β-scale radar reflectivity morphologies. In particular, the model reproduces the passage of several heavy-rain-producing convective bands at the leading convective line and the trailing stratiform region, leading to the torrential rainfall at nearly the right location. However, many of the above features are poorly simulated or missed when the finest model grid uses either 1.33- or 4-km grid spacing. Results indicate the important roles of isentropic lifting of moist monsoonal air over the cold dome in triggering deep convection, a low-level jet within an elevated moist layer in maintaining conditional instability, and the repeated formation and movement of convective cells along the same path in producing the torrential rainfall.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of a Bowing Mesoscale Convective System to Horizontal Grid Spacing in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 384
Author(s):  
John R. Lawson ◽  
William A. Gallus ◽  
Corey K. Potvin
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Real Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Structure Amplitude ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Bow Echo ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Horizontal Grid

The bow echo, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) responsible for much hail and wind damage across the United States, is associated with poor skill in convection-allowing numerical model forecasts. Given the decrease in convection-allowing grid spacings within many operational forecasting systems, we investigate the effect of finer resolution on the character of bowing-MCS development in a real-data numerical simulation. Two ensembles were generated: one with a single domain of 3-km horizontal grid spacing, and another nesting a 1-km domain with two-way feedback. Ensemble members were generated from their control member with a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme, with identical initial and lateral-boundary conditions. Results suggest that resolution reduces hindcast skill of this MCS, as measured with an adaptation of the object-based Structure–Amplitude–Location method. The nested 1-km ensemble produces a faster system than in both the 3-km ensemble and observations. The nested 1-km simulation also produced stronger cold pools, which could be enhanced by the increased (fractal) cloud surface area with higher resolution, allowing more entrainment of dry air and hence increased evaporative cooling.

Tornadogenesis in a Simulated Mesovortex within a Mesoscale Convective System

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (11) ◽  
pp. 3372-3390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander D. Schenkman ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Alan Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Surface Friction ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is used to simulate a tornadic mesovortex with the aim of understanding the associated tornadogenesis processes. The mesovortex was one of two tornadic mesovortices spawned by a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that traversed southwestern and central Oklahoma on 8–9 May 2007. The simulation used 100-m horizontal grid spacing, and is nested within two outer grids with 400-m and 2-km grid spacing, respectively. Both outer grids assimilate radar, upper-air, and surface observations via 5-min three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) cycles. The 100-m grid is initialized from a 40-min forecast on the 400-m grid. Results from the 100-m simulation provide a detailed picture of the development of a mesovortex that produces a submesovortex-scale tornado-like vortex (TLV). Closer examination of the genesis of the TLV suggests that a strong low-level updraft is critical in converging and amplifying vertical vorticity associated with the mesovortex. Vertical cross sections and backward trajectory analyses from this low-level updraft reveal that the updraft is the upward branch of a strong rotor that forms just northwest of the simulated TLV. The horizontal vorticity in this rotor originates in the near-surface inflow and is caused by surface friction. An additional simulation with surface friction turned off does not produce a rotor, strong low-level updraft, or TLV. Comparison with previous two-dimensional numerical studies of rotors in the lee of mountains shows striking similarities to the rotor formation presented herein. The findings of this study are summarized in a four-stage conceptual model for tornadogenesis in this case that describes the evolution of the event from mesovortexgenesis through rotor development and finally TLV genesis and intensification.

scholarly journals Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) within an African Easterly Wave: Low-Level Vortices and Upper-Level Warming

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (12) ◽  
pp. 3799-3817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan F. Cecelski ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Scale Surface

Abstract While a robust theoretical framework for tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) within African easterly waves (AEWs) has recently been developed, little work explores the development of low-level meso-β-scale vortices (LLVs) and a meso-α-scale surface low in relation to deep convection and upper-tropospheric warming. In this study, the development of an LLV into Hurricane Julia (2010) is shown through a high-resolution model simulation with the finest grid size of 1 km. The results presented expand upon the connections between LLVs and the AEW presented in previous studies while demonstrating the importance of upper-tropospheric warming for TCG. It is found that the significant intensification phase of Hurricane Julia is triggered by the pronounced upper-tropospheric warming associated with organized deep convection. The warming is able to intensify and expand during TCG owing to formation of a storm-scale outflow beyond the Rossby radius of deformation. Results confirm previous ideas by demonstrating that the intersection of the AEW's trough axis and critical latitude is a preferred location for TCG, while supplementing such work by illustrating the importance of upper-tropospheric warming and meso-α-scale surface pressure falls during TCG. It is shown that the meso-β-scale surface low enhances boundary layer convergence and aids in the bottom-up vorticity development of the meso-β-scale LLV. The upper-level warming is attributed to heating within convective bursts at earlier TCG stages while compensating subsidence warming becomes more prevalent once a mesoscale convective system develops.

scholarly journals Impact of soil moisture and convectively generated waves on the initiation of a West African mesoscale convective system

2012 ◽  
Vol 139 (676) ◽  
pp. 1712-1730 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Birch ◽  
D. J. Parker ◽  
A. O'Leary ◽  
J. H. Marsham ◽  
C. M. Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
West African ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Cloud-Resolving Modeling of Deep Convection during KWAJEX. Part I: Comparison to TRMM Satellite and Ground-Based Radar Observations

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (7) ◽  
pp. 2699-2712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaping Li ◽  
Edward J. Zipser ◽  
Steven K. Krueger ◽  
Mike A. Zulauf
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Cloud System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Precipitation Radar ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Simulated Precipitation

Abstract A global TRMM database of tropical cloud system precipitation features (PFs), which provides useful observational constraints on cloud system properties, is used to evaluate the bulk microphysics schemes in a cloud-resolving model (CRM). The simulation of the Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) of 11–12 August 1999 during the Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX) is executed using the 3D University of Utah CRM, which employs a one-moment bulk, three-ice category microphysical parameterization. The simulated precipitation features are compared with climatological “norms” for Kwajalein locations from the TRMM PF database to evaluate the precipitation microphysics of the cloud model simulation. The model-simulated reflectivities are also compared with vertical profiles of radar reflectivity obtained from a ground-based precipitation radar. Comparison of simulation results with the TRMM observation statistics indicates that the model tends to underestimate microwave brightness temperatures at ice-scattering frequencies and overestimate radar reflectivities, especially for those associated with larger ice particles. The differences between the statistics of KWAJEX simulation and available ground-based precipitation radar observations are relatively small at the levels below 5 km. Above 6 km, the differences increase with height and reach a maximum near 9 km. The simulated radar reflectivities are statistically 5–13 dBZ higher than those from radar observations at levels between 7 and 10.5 km, where graupel is the dominant simulated ice species. The largest graupel mixing ratios, as high as 8 g kg−1, are the most likely reason for the unrealistically high simulated radar reflectivity. Comparison of model-simulated graupel mixing ratio with available microphysics data from the Citation aircraft indicates that the model overestimates graupel content at the level the Citation flew (about 6.4 km).

scholarly journals Genesis of an East Pacific Easterly Wave from a Panama Bight MCS: A Case Study Analysis from June 2012

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (10) ◽  
pp. 3567-3584
Author(s):  
Justin W. Whitaker ◽  
Eric D. Maloney
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
Vorticity Budget ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

AbstractThis study investigates the transition of a Panama Bight mesoscale convective system (MCS) into the easterly wave (EW) that became Hurricane Carlotta (2012). Reanalysis, observations, and a convective-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation are used to analyze the processes contributing to EW genesis. A vorticity budget analysis shows that convective coupling and vortex stretching are very important to the transition in this case, while horizontal advection is mostly responsible for the propagation of the system. In the model, the disturbance is dominated by stratiform vertical motion profiles and a midlevel vortex, while the system is less top-heavy and is characterized by more prominent low-level vorticity later in the transition in reanalysis. The developing disturbance starts its evolution as a mesoscale convective system in the Bight of Panama. Leading up to MCS formation the Chocó jet intensifies, and during the MCS-to-EW transition the Papagayo jet strengthens. Differences in the vertical structure of the system between reanalysis and the model suggest that the relatively more bottom-heavy disturbance in reanalysis may have stronger interactions with the Papagayo jet. Field observations like those collected during the Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC) campaign are needed to further our understanding of this east Pacific EW genesis pathway and the factors that influence it, including the important role for the vertical structure of the developing disturbances in the context of the vorticity budget.

scholarly journals Hindcasting the First Tornado Forecast in Europe: 25 June 1967

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 417-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Antonescu ◽  
Tomáš Púçik ◽  
David M. Schultz
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Stationary Front ◽  
History Of ◽  
European Counterpart ◽  
Meteorological Institute ◽  
Tornado Outbreak

Abstract The tornado outbreak of 24–25 June 1967 was the most damaging in the history of western Europe, producing 7 F2–F5 tornadoes, 232 injuries, and 15 fatalities across France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Following tornadoes in France on 24 June, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) issued a tornado forecast for 25 June, which became the first ever—and first verified—tornado forecast in Europe. Fifty-two years later, tornadoes are still not usually forecast by most European national meteorological services, and a pan-European counterpart to the NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not exist to provide convective outlook guidance; yet, tornadoes remain an extant threat. This article asks, “What would a modern-day forecast of the 24–25 June 1967 outbreak look like?” To answer this question, a model simulation of the event is used in three ways: 20-km grid-spacing output to produce a SPC-style convective outlook provided by the European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX), 800-m grid-spacing output to analyze simulated reflectivity and surface winds in a nowcasting analog, and 800-m grid-spacing output to produce storm-total footprints of updraft helicity maxima to compare to observed tornado tracks. The model simulates a large supercell on 24 June and weaker embedded mesocyclones on 25 June forming along a stationary front, allowing the ESTOFEX outlooks to correctly identify the threat. Updraft helicity footprints indicate multiple mesocyclones on both days within 40–50 km and 3–4 h of observed tornado tracks, demonstrating the ability to hindcast a large European tornado outbreak.

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