scholarly journals Genesis of an East Pacific Easterly Wave from a Panama Bight MCS: A Case Study Analysis from June 2012

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (10) ◽  
pp. 3567-3584
Author(s):  
Justin W. Whitaker ◽  
Eric D. Maloney
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
Vorticity Budget ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

AbstractThis study investigates the transition of a Panama Bight mesoscale convective system (MCS) into the easterly wave (EW) that became Hurricane Carlotta (2012). Reanalysis, observations, and a convective-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation are used to analyze the processes contributing to EW genesis. A vorticity budget analysis shows that convective coupling and vortex stretching are very important to the transition in this case, while horizontal advection is mostly responsible for the propagation of the system. In the model, the disturbance is dominated by stratiform vertical motion profiles and a midlevel vortex, while the system is less top-heavy and is characterized by more prominent low-level vorticity later in the transition in reanalysis. The developing disturbance starts its evolution as a mesoscale convective system in the Bight of Panama. Leading up to MCS formation the Chocó jet intensifies, and during the MCS-to-EW transition the Papagayo jet strengthens. Differences in the vertical structure of the system between reanalysis and the model suggest that the relatively more bottom-heavy disturbance in reanalysis may have stronger interactions with the Papagayo jet. Field observations like those collected during the Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC) campaign are needed to further our understanding of this east Pacific EW genesis pathway and the factors that influence it, including the important role for the vertical structure of the developing disturbances in the context of the vorticity budget.

scholarly journals The Vertical Structure of Mesoscale Convective Vortices

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 686-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Thomas J. Galarneau
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Secondary Phase ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Outflow Boundary ◽  
Convective Vortices

Abstract Simulations of two cases of developing mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) are examined to determine the dynamics governing the origin and vertical structure of these features. Although one case evolves in strong vertical wind shear and the other evolves in modest shear, the evolutions are remarkably similar. In addition to the well-known mesoscale convergence that spins up vorticity in the midtroposphere, the generation of vorticity in the lower troposphere occurs along the convergent outflow boundary of the parent mesoscale convective system (MCS). Lateral transport of this vorticity from the convective region back beneath the midtropospheric vorticity center is important for obtaining a deep column of cyclonic vorticity. However, this behavior would be only transient without a secondary phase of vorticity growth in the lower troposphere that results from a radical change in the divergence profile favoring lower-tropospheric convergence. Following the decay of the nocturnal MCS, subsequent convection occurs in a condition of greater relative humidity through the lower troposphere and small conditional instability. Vorticity and potential vorticity are efficiently produced near the top of the boundary layer and a cyclonic circulation appears at the surface.

scholarly journals Comparison between Low-Flash and Non-Lightning-Producing Convective Areas within a Mature Mesoscale Convective System

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 468-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Palucki ◽  
Michael I. Biggerstaff ◽  
Donald R. MacGorman ◽  
Terry Schuur
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Phase Region ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Mixed Phase Region

Abstract Two small multicellular convective areas within a larger mesoscale convective system that occurred on 20 June 2004 were examined to assess vertical motion, radar reflectivity, and dual-polarimetric signatures between flash and non-flash-producing convection. Both of the convective areas had similar life cycles and general structures. Yet, one case produced two flashes, one of which may have been a cloud-to-ground flash, while the other convective area produced no flashes. The non-lightning-producing case had a higher peak reflectivity up to 6 km. Hence, if a reflectivity-based threshold were used as a precursor to lightning, it would have yielded misleading results. The peak upward motion in the mixed-phase region for both cases was 8 m s−1 or less. However, the lightning-producing storm contained a wider region where the updraft exceeded 5 m s−1. Consistent with the broader updraft region, the lightning-producing case exhibited a distinct graupel signature over a broader region than the non-lightning-producing convection. Slight differences in vertical velocity affected the quantity of graupel present in the mixed-phase region, thereby providing the subtle differences in polarimetric signatures that were associated with lightning activity. If the results here are generally applicable, then graupel volume may be a better precursor to a lightning flash than radar reflectivity. With the dual-polarimetric upgrade to the national observing radar network, it should be possible to better distinguish between lightning- and non-lightning-producing areas in weak convective systems that pose a potential safety hazard to the public.

Subkilometer Simulation of a Torrential-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective System in East China. Part I: Model Verification and Convective Organization

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (1) ◽  
pp. 184-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Man Zhang ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
East China ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Torrential Rain ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Torrential Rainfall

Abstract A nocturnal torrential-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurring during the mei-yu season of July 2003 in east China is studied using conventional observations, surface mesoanalysis, satellite and radar data, and a 24-h multinested model simulation with the finest grid spacing of 444 m. Observational analyses reveal the presence of several larger-scale conditions that were favorable for the development of the MCS, including mei-yu frontal lifting, moderate cold advection aloft and a moist monsoonal flow below, and an elongated old cold dome left behind by a previously dissipated MCS. Results show that the model could reproduce the evolution of the dissipating MCS and its associated cold outflows, the triggering of three separate convective storms over the remnant cold dome and the subsequent organization into a large MCS, and the convective generation of an intense surface meso-high and meso-β-scale radar reflectivity morphologies. In particular, the model reproduces the passage of several heavy-rain-producing convective bands at the leading convective line and the trailing stratiform region, leading to the torrential rainfall at nearly the right location. However, many of the above features are poorly simulated or missed when the finest model grid uses either 1.33- or 4-km grid spacing. Results indicate the important roles of isentropic lifting of moist monsoonal air over the cold dome in triggering deep convection, a low-level jet within an elevated moist layer in maintaining conditional instability, and the repeated formation and movement of convective cells along the same path in producing the torrential rainfall.

scholarly journals Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) within an African Easterly Wave: Developing and Nondeveloping Members from WRF–LETKF Ensemble Forecasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (7) ◽  
pp. 2763-2781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan F. Cecelski ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Takemasa Miyoshi
Keyword(s):  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Rossby Radius Of Deformation ◽  
Faster Development

Abstract In this study, the predictability of and parametric differences in the genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) are investigated using 20 mesoscale ensemble forecasts with the finest resolution of 1 km. Results show that the genesis of Julia is highly predictable, with all but two members undergoing genesis. Despite the high predictability, substantial parametric differences exist between the stronger and weaker members. Notably, the strongest-developing member exhibits large upper-tropospheric warming within a storm-scale outflow during genesis. In contrast, the nondeveloping member has weak and more localized warming due to inhibited convective development and a lack of a storm-scale outflow. A reduction in the Rossby radius of deformation in the strongest member aids in the accumulation of the warmth, while little contraction takes place in the nondeveloping member. The warming in the upper troposphere is responsible for the development of meso-α-scale surface pressure falls and a meso-β surface low in the strongest-developing member. Such features fail to form in the nondeveloping member as weak upper-tropospheric warming is unable to induce meaningful surface pressure falls. Cloud ice content is nearly doubled in the strongest member as compared to its nondeveloping counterparts, suggesting the importance of depositional heating of the upper troposphere. It is found that the stronger member undergoes genesis faster due to the lack of convective inhibition near the African easterly wave (AEW) pouch center prior to genesis. This allows for the faster development of a mesoscale convective system and storm-scale outflow, given the already favorable larger-scale conditions.

scholarly journals Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) within an African Easterly Wave: Low-Level Vortices and Upper-Level Warming

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (12) ◽  
pp. 3799-3817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan F. Cecelski ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Scale Surface

Abstract While a robust theoretical framework for tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) within African easterly waves (AEWs) has recently been developed, little work explores the development of low-level meso-β-scale vortices (LLVs) and a meso-α-scale surface low in relation to deep convection and upper-tropospheric warming. In this study, the development of an LLV into Hurricane Julia (2010) is shown through a high-resolution model simulation with the finest grid size of 1 km. The results presented expand upon the connections between LLVs and the AEW presented in previous studies while demonstrating the importance of upper-tropospheric warming for TCG. It is found that the significant intensification phase of Hurricane Julia is triggered by the pronounced upper-tropospheric warming associated with organized deep convection. The warming is able to intensify and expand during TCG owing to formation of a storm-scale outflow beyond the Rossby radius of deformation. Results confirm previous ideas by demonstrating that the intersection of the AEW's trough axis and critical latitude is a preferred location for TCG, while supplementing such work by illustrating the importance of upper-tropospheric warming and meso-α-scale surface pressure falls during TCG. It is shown that the meso-β-scale surface low enhances boundary layer convergence and aids in the bottom-up vorticity development of the meso-β-scale LLV. The upper-level warming is attributed to heating within convective bursts at earlier TCG stages while compensating subsidence warming becomes more prevalent once a mesoscale convective system develops.

Origin of the pre-tropical storm Debby (2006) African easterly wave-mesoscale convective system

2013 ◽  
Vol 120 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 123-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuh-Lang Lin ◽  
Liping Liu ◽  
Guoqing Tang ◽  
James Spinks ◽  
Wilson Jones
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Convective System ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Radar Characteristics of Precipitation Features in the EPIC and TEPPS Regions of the East Pacific

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (4) ◽  
pp. 1576-1595 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Cifelli ◽  
S. W. Nesbitt ◽  
S. A. Rutledge ◽  
W. A. Petersen ◽  
S. Yuter
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Tropical Eastern Pacific ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Radar Echo ◽  
Category Comparison

Abstract Ship-based radar data are used to compare the structure of precipitation features in two regions of the east Pacific where recent field campaigns were conducted: the East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System (EPIC-2001; 10°N, 95°W) in September 2001 and the Tropical Eastern Pacific Process Study (TEPPS; 8°N, 125°W) in August 1997. Corresponding July–September 1998–2004 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) data are also used to provide context for the field campaign data. An objective technique is developed to identify precipitation features in the ship and TRMM PR data and to develop statistics on horizontal and vertical structure and precipitation characteristics. Precipitation features were segregated into mesoscale convective system (MCS) and sub-MCS categories, based on a contiguous area threshold of 1000 km2 (these features were required to have at least one convective pixel), as well as an “other” (NC) category. Comparison of the satellite and field campaign data showed that the two datasets were in good agreement for both regions with respect to MCS features. Specifically, both the satellite and ship radar data showed that approximately 80% of the rainfall volume in both regions was contributed by MCS features, similar to results from other observational datasets. EPIC and TEPPS MCSs had similar area distributions but EPIC MCSs tended to be more vertically developed and rain heavier than their TEPPS counterparts. In contrast to MCSs, smaller features (NCs and sub-MCSs) sampled by the ship radar in both regions showed important differences compared with the PR climatology. In the EPIC field campaign, a large number of small (<100 km2), shallow (radar echo tops below the melting level) NCs and sub-MCSs were sampled. A persistent dry layer above 800 mb during undisturbed periods in EPIC may have been responsible for the high occurrence of these features. Also, during the TEPPS campaign, sub-MCSs were larger and deeper with respect to the TRMM climatology, which may have been due to the higher than average SSTs during 1997–98 when TEPPS was conducted. Despite these differences, it was found that for sizes greater than about 100 km2, EPIC precipitation features had 30-dBZ echos at higher altitudes and also had higher rain rates than similar sized TEPPS features. These results suggest that ice processes play a more important role in rainfall production in EPIC compared with TEPPS.

Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of a Mesoscale Convective System and Associated Polarimetric Radar Variables Using Single-Moment and Double-Moment Microphysics Schemes and EnKF Radar Data Assimilation

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 2257-2279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan J. Putnam ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Youngsun Jung ◽  
Nathan A. Snook ◽  
Guifu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Verification Methods ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Double Moment

Abstract Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts are performed for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that occurred over Oklahoma on 8–9 May 2007, initialized from ensemble Kalman filter analyses using multinetwork radar data and different microphysics schemes. Two experiments are conducted, using either a single-moment or double-moment microphysics scheme during the 1-h-long assimilation period and in subsequent 3-h ensemble forecasts. Qualitative and quantitative verifications are performed on the ensemble forecasts, including probabilistic skill scores. The predicted dual-polarization (dual-pol) radar variables and their probabilistic forecasts are also evaluated against available dual-pol radar observations, and discussed in relation to predicted microphysical states and structures. Evaluation of predicted reflectivity (Z) fields shows that the double-moment ensemble predicts the precipitation coverage of the leading convective line and stratiform precipitation regions of the MCS with higher probabilities throughout the forecast period compared to the single-moment ensemble. In terms of the simulated differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP) fields, the double-moment ensemble compares more realistically to the observations and better distinguishes the stratiform and convective precipitation regions. The ZDR from individual ensemble members indicates better raindrop size sorting along the leading convective line in the double-moment ensemble. Various commonly used ensemble forecast verification methods are examined for the prediction of dual-pol variables. The results demonstrate the challenges associated with verifying predicted dual-pol fields that can vary significantly in value over small distances. Several microphysics biases are noted with the help of simulated dual-pol variables, such as substantial overprediction of KDP values in the single-moment ensemble.

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