scholarly journals Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1569
Author(s):  
Chao Yue ◽  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
Michael Wolovick ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Surface runoff from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has dominated recent ice mass loss and is having significant impacts on sea-level rise under global warming. Here, we used two modified degree-day (DD) methods to estimate the runoff of the GrIS during 1950–2200 under the extensions of historical, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Near-surface air temperature and snowfall were obtained from five Earth System Models. We applied new degree-day factors to best match the results of the surface energy and mass balance model, SEMIC, over the whole GrIS in a 21st century simulation. The relative misfits between tuned DD methods and SEMIC during 2050–2089 were 3% (RCP4.5) and 12% (RCP8.5), much smaller than the 30% difference between untuned DD methods and SEMIC. Equilibrium line altitude evolution, runoff-elevation feedback, and ice mask evolution were considered in the future simulations to 2200. The ensemble mean cumulative runoff increasing over the GrIS was equivalent to sea-level rises of 6 ± 2 cm (RCP4.5) and 9 ± 3 cm (RCP8.5) by 2100 relative to the period 1950–2005, and 13 ± 4 cm (RCP4.5) and 40 ± 5 cm (RCP8.5) by 2200. Runoff-elevation feedback produced runoff increases of 5 ± 2% (RCP4.5) and 6 ± 2% (RCP8.5) by 2100, and 12 ± 4% (RCP4.5) and 15 ± 5% (RCP8.5) by 2200. Two sensitivity experiments showed that increases of 150% or 200%, relative to the annual mean amount of snowfall in 2080–2100, in the post-2100 period would lead to 10% or 20% more runoff under RCP4.5 and 5% or 10% under RCP8.5 because faster ice margin retreat and ice sheet loss under RCP8.5 dominate snowfall increases and ice elevation feedbacks.

Greenland Ice Sheet surface runoff projections to AD2500 using degree-day model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Yue ◽  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Water Runoff ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Earth System Models

<p>      The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface melt-water runoff dominates recent ice mass loss under global warming. We present runoff simulations during 1950-2500 over GrIS under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5, RCP8.5 and their extensions scenarios using three modified degree-day models, forced with five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) Earth System Models (CanESM2, BNU-ESM, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM and MIROC-ESM-CHEM). The degree-day factors are tuned at two sites on Greenland to best match the results by surface energy and mass balance model SEMIC. The modeled SMB over Greenland by modified degree-day models agree well with SEMIC in 21th century, then is applied to do projections for the 2100-2500 period. We also consider equilibrium line altitude evolution, surface topography changes and runoff-elevation feedback in the post-2100 simulations. The ensemble mean projected GrIS runoff is equivalent to sea-level rise of 7 cm (RCP4.5) and 10 cm (RCP8.5) by the end of the 21st century relative to the period 1950-2005, and 25cm (RCP4.5) and 121cm (RCP8.5) by 2500. Runoff-elevation feedback increases extra runoff of 7% (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) by 2100 and 23% (RCP4.5) and 22% (RCP8.5) by 2500. Sensitivity experiments show that 150% and 200% snowfall in post-2100 period would lead to 10% and 20% runoff increase under RCP4.5, 5% and 10% for RCP8.5, respectively.</p>

scholarly journals Mass-balance modelling of the Greenland ice sheet: a comparison of an energy-balance and a degree-day model

1996 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 36-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. W. van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Degree Day

A degree-day model and an energy-balance model for the Greenland ice sheet are compared. The two models are compared at a grid with 20 km spacing. Input for both models is elevation, latitude and accumulation. The models calculate the annual ablation over the entire ice sheet. Although on the whole the two models yield similar results, depending on the tuning of the models, regional discrepancies of up to 45% occur, especially for northern Greenland. The performance of the two types of model is evaluated by comparing the model results with the sparsely available (long-term) mass-balance measurements. Results show that the energy-balance model tends to predict a more accurate mass-balance gradient with elevation than does the degree-day model. Since so little is known about the present-day climate of the ice sheet, it is more useful to consider the sensitivity of the ablation to various climate elements than to consider the actual present-day ablation. Results show that for a 1 K temperature perturbation, sea-level rise is 0.31 mm year−1 for the energy-balance model and 0.34 mm year−1 for the degree-day model. After tuning the degree-day model to a value of the ablation, equivalent to the ablation calculated by the energy-balance model, sensitivity of the degree-day model increases to 0.37 mm sea-level change per year. This means that the sensitivity of the degree-day model for a 1 K temperature perturbation is about 20% higher than the sensitivity of the energy-balance model. Another set of experiments shows that the sensitivity of the ablation is dependent on the magnitude of the temperature perturbation for the two models. Both models show an increasing sensitivity per degree for larger perturbations. The increase in the sensitivity is larger for the degree-day model than for the energy-balance model. The differences in the sensitivity are mainly concentrated in the southern parts of the ice sheet. Experiments for the Bellagio temperature scenario. 0.3°C increase in temperature per decade, leads to sea-level rise of 4.4 cm over a period of 100 years for the energy-balance model. The degree-day model predicts for the same forcing a 5.8 cm rise which is about 32% higher than the result of the energy-balance model.

scholarly journals Mass-balance modelling of the Greenland ice sheet: a comparison of an energy-balance and a degree-day model

1996 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 36-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. W. van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Degree Day

A degree-day model and an energy-balance model for the Greenland ice sheet are compared. The two models are compared at a grid with 20 km spacing. Input for both models is elevation, latitude and accumulation. The models calculate the annual ablation over the entire ice sheet. Although on the whole the two models yield similar results, depending on the tuning of the models, regional discrepancies of up to 45% occur, especially for northern Greenland. The performance of the two types of model is evaluated by comparing the model results with the sparsely available (long-term) mass-balance measurements. Results show that the energy-balance model tends to predict a more accurate mass-balance gradient with elevation than does the degree-day model.Since so little is known about the present-day climate of the ice sheet, it is more useful to consider the sensitivity of the ablation to various climate elements than to consider the actual present-day ablation. Results show that for a 1 K temperature perturbation, sea-level rise is 0.31 mm year−1 for the energy-balance model and 0.34 mm year−1 for the degree-day model. After tuning the degree-day model to a value of the ablation, equivalent to the ablation calculated by the energy-balance model, sensitivity of the degree-day model increases to 0.37 mm sea-level change per year. This means that the sensitivity of the degree-day model for a 1 K temperature perturbation is about 20% higher than the sensitivity of the energy-balance model. Another set of experiments shows that the sensitivity of the ablation is dependent on the magnitude of the temperature perturbation for the two models. Both models show an increasing sensitivity per degree for larger perturbations. The increase in the sensitivity is larger for the degree-day model than for the energy-balance model. The differences in the sensitivity are mainly concentrated in the southern parts of the ice sheet.Experiments for the Bellagio temperature scenario. 0.3°C increase in temperature per decade, leads to sea-level rise of 4.4 cm over a period of 100 years for the energy-balance model. The degree-day model predicts for the same forcing a 5.8 cm rise which is about 32% higher than the result of the energy-balance model.

scholarly journals A new present-day temperature parameterization for Greenland

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (189) ◽  
pp. 95-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Fausto ◽  
Andreas P. Ahlstrøm ◽  
Dirk Van As ◽  
Carl E. Bøggild ◽  
Sigfus J. Johnsen
Keyword(s):  
Reasonable Agreement ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Using Data

AbstractNear-surface air temperature (2 m) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is parameterized using data from automatic weather stations located on land and on the ice sheet. The parameterization is expressed in terms of mean annual temperatures and mean July temperatures, both depending linearly on altitude, latitude and longitude. The temperature parameterization is compared to a previous study and is shown to be in better agreement with observations. The temperature parameterization is tested in a positive degree-day model to simulate the present (1996–2006) mean melt area extent of the GrIS. The model accounts for firn warming, rainfall and refreezing of meltwater, with different degree-day factors for ice and snow under warm and cold climate conditions. The simulated melt area extent is found to have reasonable agreement with satellite-derived observations.

scholarly journals Seasonal variability in the dynamics of marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Greenland

2010 ◽  
Vol 56 (198) ◽  
pp. 601-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian M. Howat ◽  
Jason E. Box ◽  
Yushin Ahn ◽  
Adam Herrington ◽  
Ellyn M. McFadden
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Flow Speed ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Seasonal Behavior ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Front Position

AbstractRecent studies indicate that the dynamics of fast-flowing, marine-terminating outlet glaciers of the Greenland ice sheet may be sensitive to climate and ocean forcing on sub-annual timescales. Observations of seasonal behavior of these glaciers at such high temporal resolution, however, are currently few. Here we present observations of front position, flow speed, near-surface air temperature and ocean conditions for six large marine-terminating glaciers in the Uummannaq region of West Greenland, to investigate controls on short-term glacier dynamics. As proposed by other studies, we find that seasonal front advance and retreat correlates with the formation and disappearance of an ice melange. Our data suggest that high sea-surface temperature, anomalously low sea-ice concentration and reduced melange formation in early 2003 have triggered multi-year retreat of several glaciers in the study area, which is consistent with other regions in Greenland. Of the stable glaciers, only Rink Isbræ exhibits a seasonal speed variation that correlates with variations in front position, with the others undergoing mid-summer deceleration that indicates the effects of subglacial meltwater discharge and drainage system evolution. Drainage of supraglacial lakes and water-filled crevasses results in substantial decreases in speed (40–60%) on fast-flowing glaciers. Our results demonstrate that attempts to model ice-sheet evolution must take into account short-timescale flow dynamics resulting from drainage events and oceanographic conditions.

scholarly journals Firn temperature and meltwater refreezing in the lower accumulation area of the Greenland ice sheet, Pâkitsoq, West Greenland

1993 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 109-114
Author(s):  
R.J Braithwaite
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
International Project ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
West Greenland ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
High Degree

Firn temperatures and meltwater refreezing are studied in the lower accumulation area of the Greenland ice sheet as part of an international project on sea level changes. In the study area, 1440–1620 m a.s.l., meltwater penetrates several metres into the firn and refreezes, warming the firn by 5–7°C compared with annual air temperatures. This firn warming is closely related to surface melt which can be estimated by several methods. A relatively high degree-day factor is needed to account for the melt rates found.

scholarly journals High-resolution ice thickness and bed topography of a land-terminating section of the Greenland Ice Sheet

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Lindbäck ◽  
R. Pettersson ◽  
S. H. Doyle ◽  
C. Helanow ◽  
P. Jansson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Airborne Radar ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Bed Topography ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Ice Sheet Dynamics

Abstract. We present ice thickness and bed topography maps with high spatial resolution (250 to 500 m) of a and-terminating section of the Greenland Ice Sheet derived from combined ground-based and airborne radar surveys. The data have a total area of ~12000 km2 and cover the whole ablation area of the outlet glaciers of Isunnguata Sermia, Russell, Leverett, Ørkendalen and Isorlersuup up to the long-term mass balance equilibrium line altitude at ~1600 m above sea level. The bed topography shows highly variable subglacial trough systems, and the trough of the Isunnguata Sermia Glacier is over-deepened and reaches an elevation of several hundreds of meters below sea level. The ice surface is smooth and only reflects the bedrock topography in a subtle way, resulting in a highly variable ice thickness. The southern part of our study area consists of higher bed elevations compared to the northern part. The covered area is one of the most studied regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet with studies of mass balance, dynamics, and supraglacial lakes, and our combined dataset can be valuable for detailed studies of ice sheet dynamics and hydrology. The compiled datasets of ground-based and airborne radar surveys are accessible for reviewers (password protected) at doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/pangaea.830314 and will be freely available in the final revised paper.

scholarly journals Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (50) ◽  
pp. E10622-E10631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence C. Smith ◽  
Kang Yang ◽  
Lincoln H Pitcher ◽  
Brandon T. Overstreet ◽  
Vena W. Chu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Sheet Surface ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Meltwater Runoff ◽  
Direct Measurements ◽  
Peak Discharges

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland’s midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems.

scholarly journals Estimating Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 3101-3147 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Fettweis ◽  
B. Franco ◽  
M. Tedesco ◽  
J. H. van Angelen ◽  
J. T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Abstract. We report future projections of Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) obtained with the regional climate model MAR, forced by the outputs of three CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) when considering two different warming scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The GCMs selected in this study have been chosen according to their ability to simulate the current climate over Greenland. Our results indicate that in a warmer climate (i) the mass gained due to increased precipitation over GrIS does not compensate the mass lost through increased run-off; (ii) the surface melt increases non-linearly with rising temperatures due to the positive feedback between surface albedo and melt, associated with the expansion of bare ice zones which, in addition, decreases the ice sheet refreezing capacity; (iii) most of the precipitation is expected to fall as rainfall in summer, which further increases surface melt; (iv) no considerable change is expected on the length of the melting season, since heavier winter snowfall dampens the melt increase at the end of spring; (v) the increase of meltwater run-off versus temperature anomalies is dependent of the GCM-forced MAR ability to simulate the current climate; (vi) the MAR-simulated SMB changes can be approximated using the annual accumulated snowfall and summer 600 hPa temperature increase simulated by the forcing GCMs. In view of the large range in the CMIP5 future projections for the same future scenario, the GCM-based SMB approximations allow us to estimate what future projections are most likely within the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In 2100, the ensemble mean projects a sea level rise, resulting from a GrIS SMB decrease, estimated to be +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The GrIS SMB should remain positive with respect to RCP 4.5 scenario and becomes negative around 2070 in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario since a global warming >+3 °C is needed. However, these future projections do not consider the positive melt-elevation feedback because the ice sheet topography is fixed through the whole simulation. In this regard, the MAR simulations suggest a cumulative ice sheet thinning by 2100 of ~100–200 m in the ablation zone. This highlights the importance of coupling climate models to an ice sheet model to consider the future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes, and their mutual feedbacks to rising temperatures.

scholarly journals Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 469-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Fettweis ◽  
B. Franco ◽  
M. Tedesco ◽  
J. H. van Angelen ◽  
J. T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks.

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