scholarly journals Multifractal Behaviors of Stock Indices and Their Ability to Improve Forecasting in a Volatility Clustering Period

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1018
Author(s):  
Shuwen Zhang ◽  
Wen Fang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Volatility Clustering ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation ◽  
Gated Recurrent Unit

The financial market is a complex system, which has become more complicated due to the sudden impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. As a result there may be much higher degree of uncertainty and volatility clustering in stock markets. How does this “black swan” event affect the fractal behaviors of the stock market? How to improve the forecasting accuracy after that? Here we study the multifractal behaviors of 5-min time series of CSI300 and S&P500, which represents the two stock markets of China and United States. Using the Overlapped Sliding Window-based Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (OSW-MF-DFA) method, we found that the two markets always have multifractal characteristics, and the degree of fractal intensified during the first panic period of pandemic. Based on the long and short-term memory which are described by fractal test results, we use the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network model to forecast these indices. We found that during the large volatility clustering period, the prediction accuracy of the time series can be significantly improved by adding the time-varying Hurst index to the GRU neural network.

scholarly journals Investigating Long-Range Dependence of Emerging Asian Stock Markets Using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1157
Author(s):  
Faheem Aslam ◽  
Saima Latif ◽  
Paulo Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Long Range Dependence ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation

The use of multifractal approaches has been growing because of the capacity of these tools to analyze complex properties and possible nonlinear structures such as those in financial time series. This paper analyzes the presence of long-range dependence and multifractal parameters in the stock indices of nine MSCI emerging Asian economies. Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) is used, with prior application of the Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using the Loess (STL) method for more reliable results, as STL separates different components of the time series and removes seasonal oscillations. We find a varying degree of multifractality in all the markets considered, implying that they exhibit long-range correlations, which could be related to verification of the fractal market hypothesis. The evidence of multifractality reveals symmetry in the variation trends of the multifractal spectrum parameters of financial time series, which could be useful to develop portfolio management. Based on the degree of multifractality, the Chinese and South Korean markets exhibit the least long-range dependence, followed by Pakistan, Indonesia, and Thailand. On the contrary, the Indian and Malaysian stock markets are found to have the highest level of dependence. This evidence could be related to possible market inefficiencies, implying the possibility of institutional investors using active trading strategies in order to make their portfolios more profitable.

Multifractal Analysis of African Stock Markets During the 2007–2008 US Crisis

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950022
Author(s):  
Oussama Tilfani ◽  
My Youssef El Boukfaoui
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Fractal Market Hypothesis ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation

In this paper, we examine the effects of subprime crisis on the largest African stock markets (South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, and Morocco) by testing the fractal market hypothesis. We use a rolling window Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, and find decline in local Hurst exponent and an increase in short-term trading activity for all considered stock markets during the global financial crisis. We furthermore investigate the interrelationships of African and the American stock markets using multi-scale contagion test. Findings suggest that the cross-correlation of African stock markets increases with American markets becoming higher during the crisis sub-period. However, the presence of contagion or interdependence effects are country and time horizon-dependent. Implications of the results are discussed.

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of SENSEX fluctuation in the Indian stock market

2010 ◽  
Vol 88 (8) ◽  
pp. 545-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srimonti Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Nonstationary Time Series ◽  
Anomalous Behaviour ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation

The fluctuation of SENSEX in the Indian stock market for the period Jan 2003–Dec 2009 is studied using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) approach. The effect of the fall in the stock market in 2008 is also investigated. The data exhibits that the nonstationary time series of SENSEX fluctuations are multifractal in nature. An increase in the degree of multifractality prior to the anomalous behaviour in the SENSEX values is also observed. The increase in the degree of correlation for the period 2007–2009 is also responsible for the meteoric rise and the catastrophic fall in the values of SENSEX.

MULTIFRACTAL DETRENDED FLUCTUATION ANALYSIS OF ELECTRIC LOAD SERIES

Fractals ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (02) ◽  
pp. 1550010 ◽  
Author(s):  
XIAOHUI YUAN ◽  
BIN JI ◽  
YANBIN YUAN ◽  
YUEHUA HUANG ◽  
XIANSHAN LI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Quadratic Function ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Electric Load ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Range Correlation ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation ◽  
Multifractal Nature

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method is applied to analyze the daily electric load time series. The results of the MF-DFA show that there are three crossover timescales at seven days, 15 days and 365 days approximately in the fluctuation function. Also we find that these fluctuations have multifractal nature with long range correlation behavior. The multifractal singularity spectrum of the daily electric load series has been fitted by the quadratic function model. Comparing the MF-DFA results of the original load series with those of shuffled and surrogate series, it concludes that the multifractal characteristics of the daily electric load time series is due to both broadness of the probability density function and long-range correlation, and the long-range correlation is dominant.

scholarly journals A probe into the Multifractal Behaviour of Total Ozone Time Series through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sombit Chakraborty ◽  
Surajit Chattopadhyay
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hurst Exponent ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Order Polynomial ◽  
Local Trend ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation ◽  
Daily Total

Abstract The present study reports a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of total ozone time series. Considering daily total ozone concentration (TOC) data ranging from 2015 to 2019, we have created a new profile by subtracting the trend. Subsequently we have divided the profile \({X}_{i}\) into non intersecting segments of equal time scale varying from 25 to 30. Fitting a second order polynomial, we have eliminated the local trend from each segment and thereafter we have computed the detrended variance. Finally the multifractal behaviour has been identified and the singularity spectra has helped us in obtaining the generalised Hurst exponent which in this case has come out to be greater than 0.5.

scholarly journals Predicting machine failure using recurrent neural network-gated recurrent unit (RNN-GRU) through time series data

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 870-878
Author(s):  
Zainuddin Z. ◽  
P. Akhir E. A. ◽  
Hasan M. H.
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
The State ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Machine Failure ◽  
Gated Recurrent Unit

Time series data often involves big size environment that lead to high dimensionality problem. Many industries are generating time series data that continuously update each second. The arising of machine learning may help in managing the data. It can forecast future instance while handling large data issues. Forecasting is related to predicting task of an upcoming event to avoid any circumstances happen in current environment. It helps those sectors such as production to foresee the state of machine in line with saving the cost from sudden breakdown as unplanned machine failure can disrupt the operation and loss up to millions. Thus, this paper offers a deep learning algorithm named recurrent neural network-gated recurrent unit (RNN-GRU) to forecast the state of machines producing the time series data in an oil and gas sector. RNN-GRU is an affiliation of recurrent neural network (RNN) that can control consecutive data due to the existence of update and reset gates. The gates decided on the necessary information to be kept in the memory. RNN-GRU is a simpler structure of long short-term memory (RNN-LSTM) with 87% of accuracy on prediction.

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of soil radon (222Rn) and thoron (220Rn) time series

2021 ◽  
Vol 328 (1) ◽  
pp. 425-434
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rafique ◽  
Javid Iqbal ◽  
Kashif Javed Lone ◽  
Kimberlee Jane Kearfott ◽  
Saeed Ur Rahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Soil Radon ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation
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