Symplectic/Contact Geometry Related to Bayesian Statistics
In the previous work, the author gave the following symplectic/contact geometric description of the Bayesian inference of normal means: The space H of normal distributions is an upper halfplane which admits two operations, namely, the convolution product and the normalized pointwise product of two probability density functions. There is a diffeomorphism F of H that interchanges these operations as well as sends any e-geodesic to an e-geodesic. The product of two copies of H carries positive and negative symplectic structures and a bi-contact hypersurface N. The graph of F is Lagrangian with respect to the negative symplectic structure. It is contained in the bi-contact hypersurface N. Further, it is preserved under a bi-contact Hamiltonian flow with respect to a single function. Then the restriction of the flow to the graph of F presents the inference of means. The author showed that this also works for the Student t-inference of smoothly moving means and enables us to consider the smoothness of data smoothing. In this presentation, the space of multivariate normal distributions is foliated by means of the Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix. This provides a pair of regular Poisson structures, and generalizes the above symplectic/contact description to the multivariate case. The most of the ideas presented here have been described at length in a later article of the author.