Accounting for spatial sampling patterns in Bayesian phylogeography

Statistical phylogeography provides useful tools to characterize and quantify the spread of organisms during the course of evolution. Analyzing georeferenced genetic data often relies on the assumption that samples are preferentially collected in densely populated areas of the habitat. Deviation from this assumption negatively impacts the inference of the spatial and demographic dynamics. This issue is pervasive in phylogeography. It affects analyses that approximate the habitat as a set of discrete demes as well as those that treat it as a continuum. The present study introduces a Bayesian modeling approach that explicitly accommodates for spatial sampling strategies. An original inference technique, based on recent advances in statistical computing, is then described that is most suited to modeling data where sequences are preferentially collected at certain locations, independently of the outcome of the evolutionary process. The analysis of georeferenced genetic sequences from the West Nile virus in North America along with simulated data shows how assumptions about spatial sampling may impact our understanding of the forces shaping biodiversity across time and space.

A Newly Identified Younger Dryas Component in Eagle Cave, Texas

Recent excavations by the Ancient Southwest Texas Project of Texas State University sampled a previously undocumented Younger Dryas component from Eagle Cave in the Lower Pecos Canyonlands of Texas. This stratified assemblage consists of bison (Bison antiquus) bones in association with lithic artifacts and a hearth. Bayesian modeling yields an age of 12,660–12,480 cal BP, and analyses indicate behaviors associated with the processing of a juvenile bison and the manufacture and maintenance of lithic tools. This article presents spatial, faunal, macrobotanical, chronometric, geoarchaeological, and lithic analyses relating to the Younger Dryas component within Eagle Cave. The identification of the Younger Dryas occupation in Eagle Cave should encourage archaeologists to revisit previously excavated rockshelter sites in the Lower Pecos and beyond to evaluate deposits for unrecognized, older occupations.

Population Bias on Tornado Reports in Europe

Tornadoes are associated with damages, injuries, and even fatalities in Europe. Knowing the spatial distribution of tornadoes is essential for developing disaster risk reduction strategies. Unfortunately, there is a population bias on tornado reporting in Europe. To account for this bias, a Bayesian modeling approach was used based on tornado observations and population density for relatively small regions of Europe. The results indicated that the number of tornadoes could be 53% higher that are currently reported. The largest adjustments produced by the model are for Northern Europe and parts of the Mediterranean regions.