scholarly journals Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature

Econometrics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Eric Hillebrand ◽  
Søren Johansen ◽  
Torben Schmith
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Scientific Discussion ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Data Revisions ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Global Mean

We study the stability of estimated linear statistical relations of global mean temperature and global mean sea level with regard to data revisions. Using four different model specifications proposed in the literature, we compare coefficient estimates and long-term sea level projections using two different vintages of each of the annual time series, covering the periods 1880–2001 and 1880–2013. We find that temperature and sea level updates and revisions have a substantial influence both on the magnitude of the estimated coefficients of influence (differences of up to 50%) and therefore on long-term projections of sea level rise following the RCP4.5 and RCP6 scenarios (differences of up to 40 cm by the year 2100). This shows that in order to replicate earlier results that informed the scientific discussion and motivated policy recommendations, it is crucial to have access to and to work with the data vintages used at the time.

scholarly journals Variations in global mean sea level associated with the 1997-1998 ENSO event: Implications for measuring long term sea level change

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 3005-3008 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Nerem ◽  
D. P. Chambers ◽  
E. W. Leuliette ◽  
G. T. Mitchum ◽  
B. S. Giese
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Enso Event ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

Thermosteric Effects on Interannual and Long-term Global Mean Sea Level Changes

2006 ◽  
Vol 80 (5) ◽  
pp. 240-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Chen ◽  
C. R. Wilson ◽  
B. D. Tapley ◽  
X. G. Hu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

scholarly journals Observational Requirements for Long-Term Monitoring of the Global Mean Sea Level and Its Components Over the Altimetry Era

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anny Cazenave ◽  
Ben Hamlington ◽  
Martin Horwath ◽  
Valentina R. Barletta ◽  
Jérôme Benveniste ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Long Term Monitoring ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Term Monitoring ◽  
Global Mean

scholarly journals Sea-level stands from the Western Mediterranean over the past 6.5 million years

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oana A. Dumitru ◽  
Jacqueline Austermann ◽  
Victor J. Polyak ◽  
Joan J. Fornós ◽  
Yemane Asmerom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

AbstractSea-level reconstructions are important for understanding past ice sheet variability and its response to past and future warming. Here we present Neogene and Quaternary sea-level snapshots using phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) from caves on Mallorca, Spain. POS are excellent sea level index points because of their clear relationship to sea level and precise U–Pb chronology. We find that local sea-level before and at the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis was at 33.3 ± 0.25 m (6.54 ± 0.37 Ma) and 31.8 ± 0.25 m (5.86 ± 0.60 Ma) above present levels, respectively. We further present global mean sea level (GMSL) estimates, i.e. local sea level corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment and long-term uplift, for three other POS. The results show that GMSL during the Pliocene–Pleistocene Transition was 6.4 m (− 2.0–8.8 m) at 2.63 ± 0.11 Ma and during the beginning and the end of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition was − 1.1 m (− 5.6–2.4 m) and 5 m (1.5–8.1 m), respectively. These estimates provide important constraints for the past evolution of sea level and show that local sea level prior to the MSC was similar to the highest stand during the Pliocene, with markedly lower position afterwards.

Quantifying uncertainties in the land ice contribution to sea level from ISMIP6 and GlacierMIP

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamsin Edwards ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

<p><strong>The land ice contribution to global mean sea level has not yet been predicted for the latest generation of socio-economic scenarios, nor with coordinated assessment of uncertainties from the various computer models involved (climate, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and global glaciers). Two recent projects generated a large suite of projections but used previous generation scenarios and climate models and could not fully explore uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for their projections, using statistical emulation, and find uncertainty does not diminish if greenhouse gas concentrations are reduced: the sea level contribution of land ice is 28 [5, 57] cm from 2015 to 2100 under no mitigation (median and 90% range), and 16 [-5, 46] cm under very stringent mitigation. Greenland is projected to contribute around 2.5 cm/ºC of global warming, and Alaskan and Arctic glaciers a total of around 2 cm/ºC, but Antarctic uncertainties are too large to determine temperature-dependence. Knowing future global mean temperature exactly for a given socio-economic scenario would reduce the uncertainty for glaciers by up to two thirds (6 cm) but have little effect for ice sheets. Quantifying how ice sheet margins respond to ocean warming would reduce uncertainty by up to one third (Antarctica 15 cm; Greenland 7 cm). The remaining uncertainty for a given scenario is dominated by the climate and glaciological models themselves. Improved modelling and observations of polar regions, rather than global warming and glaciers, would therefore have the greatest effect in reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise.</strong></p>

scholarly journals Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (47) ◽  
pp. 23487-23492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Nauels ◽  
Johannes Gütschow ◽  
Matthias Mengel ◽  
Malte Meinshausen ◽  
Peter U. Clark ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

The main contributors to sea-level rise (oceans, glaciers, and ice sheets) respond to climate change on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. A focus on the 21st century thus fails to provide a complete picture of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on future sea-level rise and its long-term impacts. Here we identify the committed global mean sea-level rise until 2300 from historical emissions since 1750 and the currently pledged National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement until 2030. Our results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions over this 280-y period result in about 1 m of committed global mean sea-level rise by 2300, with the NDC emissions from 2016 to 2030 corresponding to around 20 cm or 1/5 of that commitment. We also find that 26 cm (12 cm) of the projected sea-level-rise commitment in 2300 can be attributed to emissions from the top 5 emitting countries (China, United States of America, European Union, India, and Russia) over the 1991–2030 (2016–2030) period. Our findings demonstrate that global and individual country emissions over the first decades of the 21st century alone will cause substantial long-term sea-level rise.

scholarly journals Is there a 60-year oscillation in global mean sea level?

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Don P. Chambers ◽  
Mark A. Merrifield ◽  
R. Steven Nerem
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

A 25-Year Satellite Altimetry-Based Global Mean Sea Level Record

2017 ◽  
pp. 187-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Steven Nerem ◽  
Michaël Ablain ◽  
Anny Cazenave ◽  
John Church ◽  
Eric Leuliette
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean
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