scholarly journals Early Warning Early Action for the Banking Solvency Risk in the COVID-19 Pandemic Era: A Case Study of Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Taufiq Hidayat ◽  
Dian Masyita ◽  
Sulaeman Rahman Nidar ◽  
Fauzan Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Adrissa Nur Syarif
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Action Simulation ◽  
Bank Management ◽  
Early Action ◽  
Bank Solvency ◽  
Warning Model ◽  
Self Stimulation

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected people’s lives and increased the banking solvency risk. This research aimed to build an early warning and early action simulation model to mitigate the solvency risk using the system dynamics methodology and the Powersim Studio 10© software. The addition of an early action simulation updates the existing early warning model. Through this model, the effect of policy design and options on potential solvency risks is known before implementation. The trials conducted at Bank BRI (BBRI) and Bank Mandiri (BMRI) showed that the model had the ability to provide an early warning of the potential increase in bank solvency risk when the loan restructuring policy is revoked. It also simulates the effectiveness of management’s policy options to mitigate these risks. This research used publicly accessible banking data and analysis. Bank management could also take advantage of this model through a self-stimulation facility developed in this study to accommodate their needs using the internal data.

scholarly journals An Early Warning Model for School Dropout: a Case Study in E-learning Class

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felipe Braz ◽  
Fernanda Campos ◽  
Victor Stroele ◽  
Mário Dantas
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
School Dropout ◽  
Early Warning Model ◽  
E Learning ◽  
Warning Model

Towards improving a national flood early warning system with global ensemble flood predictions and local knowledge; a case study on the Lower Shire Valley in Malawi.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thirza Teule ◽  
Anaïs Couasnon ◽  
Kostas Bischiniotis ◽  
Julia Blasch ◽  
Marc van den Homberg
Keyword(s):  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
National Level ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Early Action ◽  
Disastrous Flood

<p>Flood risk, a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, is increasing globally and has led to more and more disastrous flood events. Previous research has shown that taking early action is much more cost-effective than responding once the flood occurs. Such an anticipatory approach requires flood early warning systems (EWS) that provide ample lead time and that have sufficient spatial resolution. However, in developing countries, often the skill of available forecasts is insufficient to create a more effective triggering mechanism as part of a flood EWS.</p><p>This research presents an assessment of two methods to improve an existing flood EWS using a case study of the most flood-prone area of Malawi, i.e. the Lower Shire Valley. First, the forecast skill and trigger levels of the medium-term Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) model are determined for four gauge locations to assess how they can improve the national EWS. Secondly, an assessment is done on how the process of integrating flood forecasts based on local knowledge with official forecasts, can help to improve the EWS. This is done by semi-structured interviews at the national level and focus group discussions at the community level. The study shows that GloFAS does not predict absolute discharge values precisely, but can be used to predict floods if the correct trigger levels are set per location. The integration of multiple forecast sources is found to be useful at both national and community levels. An integration process is proposed where village stakeholders should take the leading role by using existing disaster management and civil protection coordination mechanisms. Overall, both methods can contribute to improving the flood EWS and decreasing the flood risk in the Lower Shire Valley in Malawi.</p>

scholarly journals Early Warning Method and Model of Inland Ship Collision Risk Based on Coordinated Collision-Avoidance Actions

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Zhiyou Cheng ◽  
Yaling Li ◽  
Bing Wu
Keyword(s):  
Collision Avoidance ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Inland Waterways ◽  
Early Warning Model ◽  
Quantitative Calculation ◽  
Ship Collision ◽  
Warning Model

To reduce the occurrence of ship collisions, immediate danger, and close-quarters situations in narrow inland waterways, a step-by-step early warning system for ship collision-avoidance actions was developed, along with an early warning method and model of collision risk based on coordinated collision-avoidance actions. This study first analyzed the importance of coordinated collision-avoidance actions in inland waterways, and the process and key components of coordinated collision-avoidance actions were studied. Then, the early warning method of inland ship collision risk based on coordinated collision-avoidance actions was introduced; the effectiveness of the early warning method was comparatively analyzed via experimental observations. A framework of early warning model of inland ship collision risk was created based on the early warning method; a collision risk early warning model for inland ships based on coordinated collision-avoidance actions was proposed according to the relationship between the distance/time to the closest point of approach (DCPA, TCPA), coordination degree of collision-avoidance actions of the two considered ships and collision risk; moreover, the early warning model of inland ship collision risk was further considered for quantitative calculation. Finally, the application of the early warning method and model was demonstrated using a case study. The results indicate that the early warning method of inland ship collision risk based on coordinated collision-avoidance actions could effectively reduce the emergence of close-quarters situations and immediate danger, and the early warning model could quantitatively show the evolution of collision risk of two ships along with the process of coordinated collision-avoidance actions.

scholarly journals The Level of Public Acceptance to the Development of a Coastal Flooding Early Warning System in Jakarta

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 566
Author(s):  
Nelly Florida Riama ◽  
Riri Fitri Sari ◽  
Henita Rahmayanti ◽  
Widada Sulistya ◽  
Mohamad Husein Nurrahmat
Keyword(s):  
Path Analysis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Public Acceptance ◽  
Community Attitudes ◽  
Early Warning Model ◽  
Warning Model

Coastal flooding is a natural disaster that often occurs in coastal areas. Jakarta is an example of a location that is highly vulnerable to coastal flooding. Coastal flooding can result in economic and human life losses. Thus, there is a need for a coastal flooding early warning system in vulnerable locations to reduce the threat to the community and strengthen its resilience to coastal flooding disasters. This study aimed to measure the level of public acceptance toward the development of a coastal flooding early warning system of people who live in a coastal region in Jakarta. This knowledge is essential to ensure that the early warning system can be implemented successfully. A survey was conducted by distributing questionnaires to people in the coastal areas of Jakarta. The questionnaire results were analyzed using cross-tabulation and path analysis based on the variables of knowledge, perceptions, and community attitudes towards the development of a coastal flooding early warning system. The survey result shows that the level of public acceptance is excellent, as proven by the average score of the respondents’ attitude by 4.15 in agreeing with the establishment of an early warning system to manage coastal flooding. Thus, path analysis shows that knowledge and perception have a weak relationship with community attitudes when responding to the coastal flooding early warning model. The results show that only 23% of the community’s responses toward the coastal flooding early warning model can be explained by the community’s knowledge and perceptions. This research is expected to be useful in implementing a coastal flooding early warning system by considering the level of public acceptance.

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