scholarly journals The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters

Economies ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fakhri Hasanov ◽  
Jeyhun Mikayilov ◽  
Cihan Bulut ◽  
Elchin Suleymanov ◽  
Fuzuli Aliyev
2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 76-81
Author(s):  
V. Yu. Didenko ◽  
N. I. Morozko ◽  
N. I. Morozko

Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.


Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4402
Author(s):  
Suyi Kim ◽  
So-Yeun Kim ◽  
Kyungmee Choi

We examined the effects of oil prices along with fundamental economic variables on exchange rate movements in the Korean and Japanese foreign exchange markets, using two-regime Markov Regime Switching Models (MRSMs) over the period from January 1991 to March 2019. We selected the best MRSMs explaining their exchange rate movements using the Maximum Log-Likelihood and Akaike Information Criteria, and analyze effects of oil prices on their exchange rates based on the selected best MRSMs. We consider two regimes, regime 1 with high-volatility and regime 2 with low-volatility. In Korea, two apparent regimes are observed, and unstable regime 1 consists of two distinct prolonged periods, the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Meanwhile in Japan, no evident prolonged regimes are observed. Rather, the two regimes occasionally alternate. Oil prices influence exchange rate movements in regime 2 with low-volatility in Korea, while they do not influence exchange rate movements in either regimes in Japan. The Japanese foreign exchange market is more resistant to external oil price shocks because the Japanese industry and economy has less dependence on oil than Korea.


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 812-823
Author(s):  
Thian-Hee Yiew ◽  
Chee-Yin Yip ◽  
Yan-Ling Tan ◽  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
C Alih Khadijah

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