scholarly journals Investigating Spillover Effects between Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Price Volatility in Uganda

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study investigates the impact of commodity price volatility spillovers on financial sector stability. Specifically, the study investigates the spillover effects between oil and food price volatility and the volatility of a key macroeconomic indicator of importance to financial stability: the nominal Uganda shilling per United States dollar (UGX/USD) exchange rate. Volatility spillover is examined using the Generalized Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) techniques, namely the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), constant conditional correlation (CCC), and varying conditional correlation (VCC) models. Overall, the results of both the GVAR and MGARCH techniques indicate low levels of volatility spillover and market interconnectedness except during crisis periods, at which point cross-market volatility spillovers and market interconnectedness sharply and markedly increased. Specifically, the results of the MGARCH analysis show that the DCC model produces the best results. The obtained results point to an amplification of dynamic conditional correlations during and after the global financial crisis (GFC), suggesting an increase in volatility spillovers and interdependence between these markets following the global financial crisis. This is also confirmed by the results of the total spillover index based on the GVAR analysis, which shows low but time-varying volatility spillover that intensified during periods of high uncertainty and market crises, particularly during the global financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis periods.

scholarly journals Volatility Spillovers in Capesize Forward Freight Agreement Markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxing Gong ◽  
Jing Lu
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Deviance Information Criterion ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Research Subjects ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper is to investigate spillovers in the Capesize forward freight agreements (FFAs) markets before and after the global financial crisis. The paper chooses four Capesize voyage routes FFAs (C3, C4, C5, and C7), two time-charter routes FFAs (BCIT/C average, BPI T/C average), and spot rates as research subjects, covering the periods 3 January 2006 to 24 December 2015. This paper applies Volatility Spillover Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (VS-MSV) model to analyze volatility spillover effects and estimates the parameters via software of Bayesian inference using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS), the deviance information criterion (DIC) used for goodness-of-fit model. The results suggest that there are volatility spillover effects in certain Capesize FFAs routes, and the effects from spot rates to FFAs take place before crisis, yet they are bilateral after crisis. With the development of shipping markets, the correlations between FFAs and spot rate are enhanced, and it seems that the effects depend on market information and traders’ behavior. So practitioners could make decisions according to the spillovers.

scholarly journals Financial Integration in ASEAN-5

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Laura Grace Gabriella ◽  
Revathy Suryanarayana ◽  
Vania Esady
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Over Time

The financial integration in South East Asia has varied over time. This paper focuses on three periods: before, during, and after the global financial crisis in 2008. This paper finds that ASEAN-5 countries have indeed taken a step towards financial integration. While we do not observe any (cointegrating) long-run relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries, we find that there has been a significant increase in the volatility spillovers between them. This is particularly true in the recovery period following the global financial crisis.  AbstrakIntegrasi keuangan di Asia Tenggara telah mengalami perubahan dari waktu ke waktu. Penelitian ini berfokus pada tiga periode waktu, yaitu pada sebelum, saat, dan setelah Krisis Keuangan Global tahun 2008. Hasil penelitian ini menemukan bahwa negara ASEAN-5 memiliki kecenderungan kearah integrasi keuangan. Walaupun kami belum melihat adanya hubungan jangka panjang dari kelima negara tersebut, namun kami menemukan adanya peningkatan signifikan dari volatility spillover diantara mereka. Hal ini khususnya benar terjadi sepanjang periode pemulihan dari Krisis Keuangan Global.Kata kunci: Integrasi Keuangan; Krisis Keuangan Global; ASEAN; GARCHJEL classifications: F21; F33

scholarly journals Linkages between gold and emerging Asian stock markets: New evidence from the Chinese stock market crash

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Shoaib Ali
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Hedge Ratios ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
New Evidence

This study examines the return and volatility transmission between gold and nine emerging Asian Stock Markets during the global financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash. We use the VAR-AGARCH model to estimate return and volatility spillovers over the period from January 2000 through June 30, 2018. The results reveal the substantial return and volatility spillovers between the gold and emerging Asian stock markets during the global financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash. However, these return and volatility transmissions vary across the pairs of stock markets and the financial crises. Besides, we analyze the optimal portfolios and hedge ratios between gold and emerging Asian stock markets during all sample periods. Our findings have important implications for effective hedging and diversification strategies, asset pricing and risk management.

Price Discovery and Transmission Mechanism between CDS and FX markets

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-58
Author(s):  
Hong Bae Kim ◽  
Sang Hoon Kang
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Reverse Direction ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Fx Market

This study investigated the relationship between the CDS (credit default swap) market with the FX spot (FX swap) market, including the period of recent global financial crisis. A measure for market efficiency is the condition that the derivative markets dominate the asset market in price discovery. In our case, however, FX market should be leading the CDS market. We found FX (spot and Derivatives) market has co-integration relationship with CDS market. Looking at Gonzalo Granger (GG) and Hasbrouck's price discovery measure, we found the FX spot and derivatives market dominated CDS market in price discovery. This study has also examined the direction of shock spillover and volatility transmission between Korean CDS spread and Foreign exchange spot (FX swap) markets using the VECM bivariate GARCH approach. Our evidence suggested the presence of bi-directional shock volatility and volatility transmission between the CDS market and FX spot market partially exist. However, volatility spillover effects from CDS market to FX Swap market are stronger than in the reverse direction during the global financial crisis, indicating that the CDS spread signaling sovereign risk play a more important role in influencing the volatility of FX derivatives market. There are some particular features in FX market. The volatility and shock of CIP deviations reflecting arbitrage opportunities in FX swap market are influenced by those of CDS spread in tranquil period prior to Lehman failure. But after Lehman failure CDS played a crucial role in signaling credit risk in FX derivatives market. We found that higher liquidity and trading volume of market matters more in price discovery and information transmission.

scholarly journals The Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on China's Financial Market and Macroeconomy

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linyue Li ◽  
Thomas D. Willett ◽  
Nan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper provides a brief review of the increasing importance of China in the world economy and discusses the spillover effects of the global financial crisis on China's financial markets and macroeconomy. It presents and critiques alternative ways of estimating these effects. Contrary to much popular discussion, China was hit fairly hard by the global recession generated by the financial crisis. It suffered a huge drop in exports, and these effects on the economy were only partially offset by China's huge stimulus program. While growth remained well above international averages, its drop was of the same order of magnitude as for the United States. The paper closes with a brief discussion of some of the major challenges facing China to rebalance its economy in order to sustain high growth.

scholarly journals Comparing The South African Stock Markets Response To Two Periods Of Distinct Instability The 1997-98 East Asian And Russian Crisis And The Recent Global Financial Crisis

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anmar Pretorius ◽  
Jesse De Beer
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
The South ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Export Destination ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper compares the South African stock markets response to two periods of distinct instability, namely the East Asian and Russian crisis of 1997-98 and the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Considering share prices, the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) was more severely affected by the earlier crisis, when the domestic fundamentals were weaker. The low levels of foreign reserves were the main cause of concern. The paper further empirically investigates volatility spillover between the JSE and various developed and emerging stock markets during the two crisis periods, employing twelve separate bi-variate GARCH models. The main contributors to volatility spillover during the East Asian and Russian crisis were Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, and Germany predominantly emerging markets. During the second crisis period, Germany, US, Brazil, and UK played the dominant parts predominantly developed markets. The importance of Germany in both periods can be attributed to the countrys role as main export destination of South African goods in Europe.

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