scholarly journals A Real Options Approach to Valuate Solar Energy Investment with Public Authority Incentives: The Italian Case

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 4181
Author(s):  
Antonio Di Bari
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Real Option Value

Solar energy investment represents currently a valid reason to support sustainable economic development. In fact, over the last few years, governments have applied different measures to incentivize private consumers and firms to use renewable energies. Photovoltaic (PV) projects are characterized by uncertainty due to meteorological conditions, the unpredictable behavior of government, and managerial flexibility. Since the Net Present Value (NPV) approach is not able to capture these uncertain factors, it was replaced with the Real Options Approach (ROA). The latter method manages to embed flexibility in PV investment using binomial trees. This paper valuates PV investment in all regional areas in Italy using an integrated approach between the discounted cash flows method and real option value, called Expanded Net Present Value (ENPV). We fit the probability of tax benefits into a binomial lattice model after analyzing the geographical position and weather conditions of all regional capitals of Italy. The results show that the cities with high irradiance/temperature have positive NPV and high investment values. On the other hand, while most cities have negative NPV, the inclusion of the flexibility in investment decisions gives additional value to the project, making the ENPV positive and implying an attractive investment opportunity with the possibility of delaying the project. We also propose a sensitivity analysis that shows how the real option value changes when incentive policies of the government become more attractive. This paper contributes to the existing literature in the way of considering financial, meteorological/geographical, and political factors to valuate PV investment.

scholarly journals Opcje realne jako alternatywa w wycenie projektów inwestycyjnych

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-63
Author(s):  
Michał Gnap
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Standard Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Option Value

The most important function of every company is to create value for its owners. In this concept, it is necessary to make actions both operating and investing. They are targeted to increase economical value in the future. Very popular in this age net present value and internal rate of return, even though very popular, they face absolute tool. Every limitation which is typical for those methods, lead to situations where management must take decisions intuitively. So standard analysis NPV should be expanded by additional tools like the real option. The aim of this work is not to characterize approaches used for estimation of real option value, but to show how seemingly unprofitable investments can be profitable due to feature real options which can bring to company over-proportional profit.

The Value of Flexibility at Global Airlines: Real Options for EDW and CRM

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Mark Jeffery ◽  
Chris Rzymski ◽  
Sandeep Shah ◽  
Robert J. Sweeney
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Growth Options ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Real Options Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Option Value

Technology projects are inherently risky; research shows that large IT projects succeed as originally planned only 28 percent of the time. Building flexibility, or real options, into a project can help manage this risk. Furthermore, the management flexibility of options has value, as the downside risk is reduced and the upside is increased. The case is based upon real options analysis for an enterprise data warehouse (EDW) and analytic customer relationship management (CRM) program at a major U.S. firm. The firm has been disguised as Global Airlines for confidentiality reasons. The data mart consolidation or EDW marginally meets the hurdle rate for the firm as analyzed using a traditional net present value (NPV) analysis. However, different tactical deployment strategies help mitigate the risk of the project by building options into the project, and the traditional NPV is expanded by the real option value. Students analyze the different deployment strategies using a binomial model compound option Excel macro, and calculate the volatility using Monte Carlo analysis in Excel. A step-by-step tutorial is provided to teach students how to accomplish the real options analysis for a simplified project, and this tutorial is easily generalized by students to the case scenario. In addition to the tactical options, the case also has the strategic growth option of analytic CRM. Students must therefore analyze both the tactical and strategic growth options and make a management recommendation on funding the project and also recommend an optimal deployment strategy to manage the project risk.The case teaches real options for technology projects. Students learn how to calculate real option values, where the key input of volatility is obtained by Monte Carlo analysis in Excel. Students also learn that the real option value is “real,” resulting from active management mitigating the risk of the project and improving the upside. Most important, students understand the difference between tactical vs. strategic growth options and the important management issues to consider.

scholarly journals Forest management decision making based on a real options approach: An application to a case in northeastern Argentina

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Broz ◽  
Gastón Milanesi ◽  
Daniel Alejandro Rossit ◽  
Diego Gabriel Rossit ◽  
Fernando Tohmé
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Management Decision Making

Abstract The Net Present Value (NPV) approach is widely applied to assess forest investments, but this method has serious shortcomings, which we propose to overcome by switching to the assessment through the Real Options Approach (ROA). The model in this paper starts with the simulation of the forest’s growth, combined with the projection of the products’ prices and valuing the assets using a binomial model. We include an option of postponement, determining the optimal period of felling. We find that ROA is more robust than the NPV approach because it relaxes the assumption of constancy of both the prices and the discount rate, allowing the determination of the optimal time of felling based on the growth rate of either the forest or the prices of its products. Contrary to the traditional NPV approach, the results obtained with ROA exhibit longer harvest turns and consequently higher profits. The key variable in the ROA, the Real Option Value (ROV) can be shown to be less (albeit moderately) sensitive to decreases of the discount rate than NPV. Moreover, ROV is moderately sensitive to decreases in the price of logs and is negligibly affected by rises in the costs of harvesting, loading and transporting rolls.

APPLYING REAL OPTIONS AND THE MAXIMUM NPV RULE TO MARKET ENTRY/EXIT STRATEGIES

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (01) ◽  
pp. 71-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
TYRONE T. LIN ◽  
TUNG-LI SHIH
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Market Entry ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Complex Calculation

This study applies the real options approach to examine the maximum net present value of the market entry/exit thresholds given uncertain cash flows. The discount and growth factors are determined in the proposed entry/exit models, facilitating the complex calculation of the discount and growth rates to determine the present value of cash flow streams. Accordingly, this work successfully combines the maximum net present value method and the real options approach for decision-making by simply considering the discount and growth factors.

scholarly journals Return predictability and the real option value of segments

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pingui Rao ◽  
Heng Yue ◽  
Xin Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Real Option ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Option Value ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Option Value

Business valuation strategy for new hydroponic farm development – a proposal towards sustainable agriculture development in United Arab Emirates

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gyanendra Singh Sisodia ◽  
Raweya Alshamsi ◽  
Bruno S. Sergi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Real Options ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Good Health ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Fresh Vegetables

PurposeThis study aims to evaluate a hydroponic farm (through nutrient film technique) while considering uncertainty, sustainability and the system's utility in the dominant desert geography. The idea of the hydroponic farm is to allow individuals/businesses to grow plants. Given the geographical condition, the hydroponic system may be useful in the Gulf context and may lead to food security and sustainability. Additionally, the UAE government has initiated several support schemes that can be availed for investing in such businesses that can contribute to the nation's food security.Design/methodology/approachThe hydroponic farm is evaluated using the net present value and real options approach. The authors studied five scenarios: 1. business as usual, 2. 50% subsidy on initial investment through Khalifa funding, 3. 4% premium, 4. Subsidy plus premium and 5. solar panel installation with bore well.FindingsAs per the assumptions and data usage, all the scenarios shows a positive net present value (NPV); Nevertheless, scenarios 4 and 5 report the significant highest net present and delay value.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has environmental, economic and social implications. Lower imports indirectly lead to lower carbon footprints. The local production of food ensures higher employability in the sector and increase in local consumption. Additionally, fresh food consumption is directly associated to good health.Practical implicationsSupportive policies such as subsidies through Khalifa funding may accelerate the expansion of such projects through domestic and foreign investments. One of the important takeaway from the study is to invest in the training of the workforce.Social implicationsGiven the geographical condition, the UAE usually depends on food imports. If the hydroponic farms become popular, the residents will have access to fresh vegetables and fruits. Higher engagement in agriculture activities also ensures a significant increase in agriculture-related businesses and higher employability.Originality/valueThe study adds novelty to the literature because the effect of Khalifa funding and investment analysis on solar (wells) has not been evaluated in any hydroponic studies. We presented the results with tornado graphs using NPV risk and real options approach in the Gulf context. The study represents functional scenarios that were previously not found in the literature.

Business opportunity assessment in Slovene organic spelt processing: application of real options model

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karmen Pažek ◽  
Črtomir Rozman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Sunk Costs ◽  
Organic Farms ◽  
Processing Application ◽  
The Real ◽  
Business Opportunity ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Flour Production

AbstractDecision making in organic farming is related to risk and uncertainty, and options must be evaluated in the decision-making process. This paper presents the methodology of an integrated deterministic simulation system (KARSIM 1.0) application for decision-making support on organic farms in northeastern Slovenia. An emphasis to modify the net present value (NPVt) criterion by incorporating the real options approach was made. Its application is shown in organic spelt (Triticum aestivum ssp. spelta McKey) production and processing using two real options approaches, the Black–Scholes and binomial models. The NPVt indicates that the decision to process spelt for animal fodder is financially unfeasible, while the real options approach differentiates the results by organic spelt grain and flour production for human nutrition. It may be concluded that the real options approach can be useful when assessing projects with uncertainty, sunk costs and irreversibility, and it can provide for examining agricultural investment decisions.

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