scholarly journals Short-Term Forecasting Photovoltaic Solar Power for Home Energy Management Systems

Inventions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Karol Bot ◽  
Antonio Ruano ◽  
Maria da Graça Ruano

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is crucial to achieving massive PV integration in several areas, which is needed to successfully reduce or eliminate carbon dioxide from energy sources. This paper deals with short-term multi-step PV power forecasts used in model-based predictive control for home energy management systems. By employing radial basis function (RBFs) artificial neural networks (ANN), designed using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) with data selected by an approximate convex-hull algorithm, it is shown that excellent forecasting results can be obtained. Two case studies are used: a special house located in the USA, and the other a typical residential house situated in the south of Portugal. In the latter case, one-step-ahead values for unscaled root mean square error (RMSE), mean relative error (MRE), normalized mean average error (NMAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and R2 of 0.16, 1.27%, 1.22%, 8% and 0.94 were obtained, respectively. These results compare very favorably with existing alternatives found in the literature.

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Christian Pfeiffer ◽  
Markus Puchegger ◽  
Claudia Maier ◽  
Ina V. Tomaschitz ◽  
Thomas P. Kremsner ◽  
...  

Due to the increase of volatile renewable energy resources, additional flexibility will be necessary in the electricity system in the future to ensure a technically and economically efficient network operation. Although home energy management systems hold potential for a supply of flexibility to the grid, private end users often neglect or even ignore recommendations regarding beneficial behavior. In this work, the social acceptance and requirements of a participatively developed home energy management system with focus on (i) system support optimization, (ii) self-consumption and self-sufficiency optimization, and (iii) additional comfort functions are determined. Subsequently, the socially-accepted flexibility potential of the home energy management system is estimated. Using methods of online household survey, cluster analysis, and energy-economic optimization, the socially-accepted techno-economic potential of households in a three-community cluster sample area is computed. Results show about a third of the participants accept the developed system. This yields a shiftable load of nearly 1.8 MW within the small sample area. Furthermore, the system yields the considerably larger monetary surplus on the supplier-side due to its focus on system support optimization. New electricity market opportunities are necessary to adequately reward a systemically useful load behavior of households.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawryn Edmonds ◽  
Bo Liu ◽  
Hongyu Wu ◽  
Hang Zhang ◽  
Don Gruenbacher ◽  
...  

As home energy management systems (HEMSs) are implemented in homes as ways of reducing customer costs and providing demand response (DR) to the electric utility, homeowner’s privacy can be compromised. As part of the HEMS framework, homeowners are required to send load forecasts to the distribution system operator (DSO) for power balancing purposes. Submitting forecasts allows a platform for attackers to gain knowledge on user patterns based on the load information provided. The attacker could, for example, enter the home to steal valuable possessions when the homeowner is away. In this paper, we propose a framework using a smart contract within a private blockchain to keep customer information private when communicating with the DSO. The results show the HEMS users’ privacy is maintained, while the benefits of data sharing are obtained. Blockchain and its associated smart contracts may be a viable solution to security concerns in DR applications where load forecasts are sent to a DSO.


2017 ◽  
Vol 96 (4) ◽  
pp. 112-120
Author(s):  
Atsuhiro KAWAMURA ◽  
Hiroki HAYASHI ◽  
Taro MORI ◽  
Hidekazu KAJIWARA ◽  
Kazunori CHIDA ◽  
...  

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