scholarly journals Predicting Contagion from the US Financial Crisis to International Stock Markets Using Dynamic Copula with Google Trends

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maneejuk ◽  
Yamaka
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
International Stock Markets ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Dynamic Copula ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

The accuracy of contagion prediction has been one of the most widely investigated and challenging problems in economic research. Much effort has been devoted to investigating the key determinant of contagion and enhancing more powerful prediction models. In this study, we aim to improve the prediction of the contagion effect from the US stock market to the international stock markets by utilizing Google Trends as a new leading indicator for predicting contagion. To improve this contagion prediction, the dynamic copula models are used to investigate the structure of dependence between international markets and the US market, before, during, and after the occurrence of the US financial crisis in 2008. We also incorporate the Google Trends data as the exogenous variables in the time-varying copula equation. Thus, the ARMAX process is introduced. To investigate the predictive power of Google Trends, we employ the likelihood ratio test. Our empirical findings support that Google Trends is a significant leading indicator for predicting contagion in seven out of 10 cases: SP-FTSE, SP-TSX, SP-DAX, SP-Nikkei, SP-BVSP, SP-SSEC, and SP-BSESN pairs. Our Google-based models seem to predict particularly well the effect of the US crisis in 2008. In addition, we find that the contribution of Google Trends to contagion prediction varies among the different stock market pairs. This finding leads to our observation that the more volatile the market time-varying correlation, the more useful Google Trends.

Measuring Dependence Between the USA and the Asian Economies: A Time-varying Copula Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 962-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shegorika Rajwani ◽  
Dilip Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Copula Approach

During the past few years, many of the financial markets have gone through devastating effects due to the crisis in one or the other economy of the world. The recent global financial crisis has triggered dramatic movements in various stock markets which may arise from interdependence or contagion between the markets. This article attempts to measure the contagion between the equity markets of Asia and the US stock market. The countries considered in the Asian group are China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan. Most of the Asian economies have experienced drastic higher volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets. If the markets are contagious, then the investors will be unable to reap benefits through international diversification of the portfolio. In such a case, the policymakers will further frame policies so that they can insulate themselves from inflicting heavy damage from various crises. To achieve our goal, we make use of the time-varying copula approach which helps us to study the joint behaviour of the series based on their marginal distribution. Time-varying copula approach can also capture the non-linear dependence in the series and exhibits a rich pattern of tail behaviour. Our findings support the contagion between the Asian stock markets and the US stock market during the global financial crisis. This article also highlights that the increased tail dependence is an important factor for the contagion between the Asian stock markets and the US market.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Volatility Spillover Effect between World-Leading and the Asian Stock Markets: Implications for Portfolio Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 226
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Shoaib Ali ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Optimal Weights ◽  
Hedge Ratios ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

This study employs the Vector Autoregressive-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (VAR-AGARCH) model to examine both return and volatility spillovers from the USA (developed) and China (Emerging) towards eight emerging Asian stock markets during the full sample period, the US financial crisis, and the Chinese Stock market crash. We also calculate the optimal weights and hedge ratios for the stock portfolios. Our results reveal that both return and volatility transmissions vary across the pairs of stock markets and the financial crises. More specifically, return spillover was observed from the US and China to the Asian stock markets during the US financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash, and the volatility was transmitted from the USA to the majority of the Asian stock markets during the Chinese stock market crash. Additionally, volatility was transmitted from China to the majority of the Asian stock markets during the US financial crisis. The weights of American stocks in the Asia-US portfolios were found to be higher during the Chinese stock market crash than in the US financial crisis. For the majority of the Asia-China portfolios, the optimal weights of the Chinese stocks were almost equal during the Chinese stock market crash and the US financial crisis. Regarding hedge ratios, fewer US stocks were required to minimize the risk for Asian stock investors during the US financial crisis. In contrast, fewer Chinese stocks were needed to minimize the risk for Asian stock investors during the Chinese stock market crash. This study provides useful information to institutional investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers regarding optimal asset allocation and risk management.

scholarly journals INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG INTERNATIONAL STOCK MARKET INDICES: EUROPE, ASIA AND THE AMERICAS

2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (05) ◽  
pp. 603-622 ◽  
Author(s):  
ADEL SHARKASI ◽  
HEATHER J. RUSKIN ◽  
MARTIN CRANE
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Testing Method ◽  
International Stock Markets ◽  
The Us ◽  
European Markets

In this paper, we investigate the price interdependence between seven international stock markets, namely Irish, UK, Portuguese, US, Brazilian, Japanese and Hong Kong, using a new testing method, based on the wavelet transform to reconstruct the data series, as suggested by Lee [11]. We find evidence of intra-European (Irish, UK and Portuguese) market co-movements with the US market also weakly influencing the Irish market. We also find co-movement between the US and Brazilian markets and similar intra-Asian co-movements (Japanese and Hong Kong). Finally, we conclude that the circle of impact is that of the European markets (Irish, UK and Portuguese) on both American markets (US and Brazilian), with these in turn impacting on the Asian markets (Japanese and Hong Kong) which in turn influence the European markets. In summary, we find evidence for intra-continental relationships and an increase in importance of international spillover effects since the mid 1990s, while the importance of historical transmissions has decreased since the beginning of this century.

Determinants of stock market comovements among US and emerging economies during the US financial crisis

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 338-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugene Hwang ◽  
Hong-Ghi Min ◽  
Bong-Han Kim ◽  
Hyeongwoo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

scholarly journals Return and Volatility Transmission between World-Leading and Latin American Stock Markets: Portfolio Implications

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Shoaib Ali ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study uses the BEKK-GARCH model to examine the return-and-volatility spillover between the world-leading markets (USA and China) and four emerging Latin American stock markets over the global financial crisis of 2008 and the crash of the Chinese stock market of 2015. Regarding return spillover, our findings reveal a unidirectional return transmission from Mexico to the US stock market during the global financial crisis. During the crash of the Chinese stock market, the return spillover is found to be unidirectional from the US to the Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru stock markets. Moreover, the results indicate a unidirectional return transmission from China to the Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru stock markets during the global financial crisis and the crash of the Chinese stock market. Regarding volatility spillover, the results show the bidirectional volatility transmission between the US and the stock markets of Chile and Mexico during the global financial crisis. During the Chinese crash, the bidirectional volatility transmission is observed between the US and Mexican stock markets. Furthermore, the volatility spillover is unidirectional from China to the Brazil stock market during the global financial crisis. During the Chinese crash, the volatility spillover is bidirectional between the China and Brazil stock markets. Lastly, a portfolio analysis application has been conducted.

Behavioral explanation of contagion between oil and stock markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achraf Ghorbel ◽  
Mouna Abbes Boujelbene ◽  
Younes Boujelbene
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate empirical evidence of behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries, during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, after controlling for fundamentals-driven co-movements. Design/methodology/approach – To examine the volatility spillover among oil market and stock markets, the conditional variance of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model includes three variables: oil returns, US index returns, and the respective individual market returns of 22 oil-importing and exporting countries. The authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of oil market and each stock index. Also, the authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of US market and each stock index. Findings – The estimation of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model for VIX, oil market and 23 stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries suggests the volatility spillover of American investor sentiment to stock market and oil market returns. To capture the pure contagion effects between oil market and stock markets, the authors estimate the forecasting errors of time-varying parameter using the Kalman independently of macroeconomic fundamentals factors. The authors analyze the dynamic correlation between forecasting errors of oil price returns and stock indices returns. The authors show a sharp increase in time-varying correlation coefficients during the oil crisis and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, which provides strong evidence of herding contagion between oil market and stock markets during the turmoil period. Originality/value – This paper makes an original contribution in identifying the behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and exporting countries especially during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009. Specifically, the authors consider investor sentiment and herding bias to explain the volatility transmission between oil and stock market returns.

scholarly journals Linkages between gold and Latin American equity markets: portfolio implications

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Hasan Hanif ◽  
Shoaib Ali ◽  
Syed Moudud-Ul-Huq
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Portfolios ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

PurposeThe authors aim to examine the mean and volatility linkages between the gold market and the Latin American equity markets in the entire sample period and two crises periods, namely the US financial crisis and the Chinese crash.Design/methodology/approachTo examine the return and volatility spillovers, the authors employ VAR-BEKK-GARCH model on the daily data of four emerging Latin American equity markets which include Peru, Chile, Brazil and Mexico, which ranges from January 2000 to June 2018.FindingsThe results show that the return transmissions vary across the stock markets and the crises periods. The volatility transmission is found to be bidirectional between the gold and stock markets of Brazil and Chile during the US financial crisis. Furthermore, the volatility spillover is unidirectional from Brazil to gold and from gold to Peru stock market during the Chinese crash. We also calculate the optimal weights hedge ratios for gold and stock portfolio. The result suggests that portfolio managers need to increase the weight of gold for the equity portfolios of Peru and Mexico during the US financial crisis. Furthermore, during the Chinese crisis, investors may raise the investment in gold for the equity portfolios of Brazil and Chile. Finally, the cheapest hedging strategy is CHIL/GOLD during the US financial crisis, whereas MEXI/GOLD during the Chinese crash.Practical implicationsThese findings have useful insights for portfolio diversification, asset pricing and risk management.Originality/valueThe study's outcome provides policymakers and investors with in-depth insights regarding hedging, risk management and portfolio management.

Pemodelan Data Time Series Garch(1,1) Untuk Pasar Saham Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Elfa Rafulta ◽  
Roni Tri Putra
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
International Stock Markets

This paper introduced a method pengklusteran for financial data. By using the model Heteroskidastity Generalized autoregressive conditional (GARCH), will be estimated distance between the stock market using GARCH-based distance. The purpose of this method is mengkluster international stock markets with different amounts of data.

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE BUBBLE EFFECT IN INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Mohammad Benny Alexandri ◽  
Raeny Dwisanti
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Book Value ◽  
The Us ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

US and Indonesia stock markets are entering record heights without being offset by economic growthand profitability growth of their traded companies. There are several indicators for the stock marketbubble: (1) Price Ratio (Ear Ratio); (2) Price Ratio / Book (PB Ratio), the latter comparing thenominal price of one share at a market with the book value (the value of company's assets). Thecurrent PB ratio of the composite stock price index being 3.3 means that for each shares the assetvalue of which is 1 IDR, the stock would be worth 3.3 IDR. This is one of the most expensive price in the world today. Based on the above, for Indonesian stock market sharp decline is just a matter of time and waiting. This decline will be much sharper if triggered by the US financial crisis. We can also also see a bubble emerging from increasingly irrational investment attitudes. Currently, in addition to high prices for stocks and bonds, investors have started looking at investment opportunities in digital currencies. This research tries to know the potential of financial crisis and itseffect for the financial market in Indonesia. 

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