Prediction of Changeable Eddy Structures around Luzon Strait Using an Artificial Neural Network Model

Mesoscale eddies occur frequently in the Luzon Strait and its adjacent area, and accurate prediction of eddy structure changes is of great significance. In recent years, artificial neural network (ANN) has been widely applied in the study of physical oceanography with the continuous accumulation of satellite remote sensing data. This study adopted an ANN approach to predict the evolution of eddies around the Luzon Strait, based on 25 years of sea level anomaly (SLA) data, 85% of which are used for training and the remaining 15% are reserved for testing. The original SLA data were firstly decomposed into spatial modes (EOFs) and time-dependent principal components (PCs) by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. In order to calculate faster and save costs, only the first 35 PCs were selected as predictors, whereas their variance contribution rate reached 96%. The results of predicted reconstruction indicated that the neural network-based model can reliably predict eddy structure evaluations for about 15 days. Importantly, the position and variation of four typical eddy events were reconstructed, and included a cyclone eddy event, an eddy shedding event, an anticyclone eddy event, and an abnormal anticyclone eddy event.