scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model to Facilitate the Development of Policy for Urban Heat Island Mitigation

Urban Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Robert Dare

This article presents a customized system dynamics model to facilitate the informed development of policy for urban heat island mitigation within the context of future climate change, and with special emphasis on the reduction of heat-related mortality. The model incorporates a variety of components (incl.: the urban heat island effect; population dynamics; climate change impacts on temperature; and heat-related mortality) and is intended to provide urban planning and related professionals with: a facilitated means of understanding the risk of heat-related mortality within the urban heat island; and location-specific information to support the development of reasoned and targeted urban heat island mitigation policy.

Proceedings ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Vinicius Bueno de Morais ◽  
Viviana Vanesa Urbina Guerrero ◽  
Leila Droprinchinski Martins ◽  
Jorge Alberto Martins

2018 ◽  
Vol 96 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richa Sharma ◽  
Hans Hooyberghs ◽  
Dirk Lauwaet ◽  
Koen De Ridder

Author(s):  
Marcos Vinicius Bueno de Morais ◽  
Viviana Vanesa Urbina Guerrero ◽  
Anderson Paulo Rudke ◽  
Thais Fujita ◽  
Leila Droprinchinski Martins ◽  
...  

According to IPCC reports, global climate change is likely to be accompanied by a greater frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves in urban areas. This is related to predicted and ongoing variation of atmospheric temperature and its association with the dynamical evolution of cities. Changes in the roughness pattern of the surface, wind intensity, soil available humidity and radiative properties compared to the natural surfaces characterize the formation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI). A dynamical downscaling of A2 and B1 SRES’s future scenarios from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were performed for Londrina, a medium-size city of Southern Brazil, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of these scenarios on the UHI formation and intensity based on different input data, and its role and influence in the rural area. For this, an evaluation of the model and a comparison with the scenarios were done to mitigate the current trends. The results show a tendency in the current situation in following the pessimistic A2 scenario. Also, a drier rural area for the sustainable projection (B1) is found which implicates in a higher temperature and wind patterns modification for both sites, urban and rural region. Both future projections have a direct influence on the UHI intensity and formation, yielding effects in the agriculture and affecting conditions on human comfort over the region.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 884
Author(s):  
Stavros Ch. Keppas ◽  
Sofia Papadogiannaki ◽  
Daphne Parliari ◽  
Serafim Kontos ◽  
Anastasia Poupkou ◽  
...  

The Mediterranean is recognized among the most responsive regions to climate change, with annual temperatures projected to increase by 1–5 °C until 2100. Large cities may experience an additional stress discomfort due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. In the present study, the WRF-ARW numerical weather prediction model was used to investigate the climate change impact on UHI for two Mediterranean cities, Rome and Thessaloniki. For this purpose, three 5-year time-slice simulations were conducted (2006–2010, 2046–2050, 2096–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario, with a spatial resolution of 2 km. In order to comprehensively investigate the urban microclimate, we analyze future simulation data across sections crossing urban/non-urban areas, and after grouping them into three classes depending on the location of the grid cells. The urban areas of both cities present increased average minimum temperature (Tmin) in winter/summer compared to other rural areas, with an UHI of ~+1.5–3 °C on average at night/early morning. Considering UHI under future climate change, we found no significant variations (~±0.2 °C). Finally, we found that the numbers of days with Tmin ≥ 20 °C will mostly increase in urban coastal areas until 2100, while the largest increase of minimum Discomfort Index (DImin) is expected in urban low-ground areas.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 546
Author(s):  
Andreas Matzarakis

In the era of climate change, before developing and establishing mitigation and adaptation measures that counteract urban heat island (UHI) effects [...]


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