Socioeconomic analysis of infectious diseases based on different scenarios using uncertain SEIAR system dynamics with effective subsystems and ANFIS

PurposeThis paper aims to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of infectious diseases based on uncertain behaviors of social and effective subsystems in the countries. The economic impacts of infectious diseases in comparison with predicted gross domestic product (GDP) in future years could be beneficial for this aim along with predicted social impacts of infectious diseases in countries.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed uncertain SEIAR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, asymptomatic and removed) model evaluates the impacts of variables on different trends using scenario base analysis. This model considers different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks for sensitivity analysis. Besides, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to predict the GDP of countries and determine the economic impacts of infectious diseases. These proposed models can predict the future socioeconomic trends of infectious diseases in each country based on the available information to guide the decisions of government planners and policymakers.FindingsThe proposed uncertain SEIAR model predicts social impacts according to uncertain parameters and different coefficients appropriate to the scenarios. It analyzes the sensitivity and the effects of various parameters. A case study is designed in this paper about COVID-19 in a country. Its results show that the effect of transportation on COVID-19 is most sensitive and the contacts have a significant effect on infection. Besides, the future annual costs of COVID-19 are evaluated in different situations. Private transportation, contact behaviors and public transportation have significant impacts on infection, especially in the determined case study, due to its circumstance. Therefore, it is necessary to consider changes in society using flexible behaviors and laws based on the latest status in facing the COVID-19 epidemic.Practical implicationsThe proposed methods can be applied to conduct infectious diseases impacts analysis.Originality/valueIn this paper, a proposed uncertain SEIAR system dynamics model, related sensitivity analysis and ANFIS model are utilized to support different programs regarding policymaking and economic issues to face infectious diseases. The results could support the analysis of sensitivities, policies and economic activities.Highlights:A new system dynamics model is proposed in this paper based on an uncertain SEIAR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Asymptomatic, and Removed) to model population behaviors;Different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts, and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks are defined in the proposed system dynamics model to find related sensitivities;Different scenarios are analyzed using the proposed system dynamics model to predict the effects of policies and related costs. The results guide lawmakers and governments' actions for future years;An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) in future years and analyze effects of COVID-19 based on them;A real case study is considered to evaluate the performances of the proposed models.

Understanding the Performance of Construction Business: A Simulation-Based Experimental Study

Higher failure rates of construction business have been observed as a recurring phenomenon in the construction industry. This research focuses on the causes behind a range of performance modes of construction business. The growth and capacity under-investment archetype has been used as the main systems archetype to develop a causal structure for understanding the business performance. A system dynamics model was developed to create a simulation platform for the causal structure. A context of a typical small and medium construction company has been used in the simulation model. This research considered and experimented with a set of selected managerial policies and practices that can lead the construction business to failure, sustenance, or growth. In order to achieve the expected growth or sustenance, it is found that a certain level of balance needs to be secured on how much emphasis is to be given to win new projects, how much profit margins to work with, and how much capacities to be arranged and deployed for project operations, management, and execution.

Investigating the Effects of Introducing Automated Straddle Carriers in Port Operations with a System Dynamics Model

Port automation has been in the forefront of maritime innovation in the last decade. On that front, Automated Straddle Carriers (ASCs) are increasingly used to move containers efficiently. However, the introduction of ASCs in port operations can be disruptive if not handled properly, especially since the field can face many uncertainties such as increased container trade. The purpose of the paper is to investigate whether the introduction of Automated Straddle Carriers in port operations can improve the overall efficiency. To achieve the objective, a System Dynamics model was developed and tested under different scenarios. The results indicate that the introduction of ASCs is accompanied by an increase in productivity of the vehicles which results in more TEUs serviced. One of the most interesting results of the various scenarios is that for all rates of incoming TEUs, berth productivity is superior when operations are performed with 5 ASCs than with 10 manned vehicles. Finally, another issue that port authorities should always have in mind is the need for coordination among the various sub-processes and optimization of the necessary vehicles in order to avoid under-utilization of resources.

Improving services in a hybrid academic library system

Purpose This paper aims to describe a hybrid academic library system and to draw up a model of this system suggesting strategies and scenarios for achieving optimum performance of the system in a technology changing world. Design/methodology/approach The mixture of traditional or manual ways of carrying out library operations with new, modern, automated systems often brings about several problems. The problems are ones that can be tackled within the framework of having appropriate systems dynamics routines applied and also making use of personnel skilled in strategic management of hybrid library systems. Findings A system dynamics model for the management of the system is developed around the issues of personnel management, collection management, capacity building and provision of access to research materials, information technology infrastructure, forming of consortia and security in the system. Originality/value Recommendations are made as to which strategy/scenario or combinations of scenarios will provide lasting solutions to the problems recurring or likely to reoccur in a hybrid academic library system.