scholarly journals Assessing the Extinction Risk of Heterocypris incongruens (Crustacea: Ostracoda) in Climate Change with Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1828
Author(s):  
Nicolò Bellin ◽  
Rachele Spezzano ◽  
Valeria Rossi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Resting Eggs ◽  
Temporary Ponds ◽  
Extinction Rate ◽  
Clonal Lineage ◽  
Egg Bank ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Heterocypris Incongruens

Organisms respond to climate change in many different ways and their local extinction risk may vary widely among taxa. Crustaceans from freshwater temporary ponds produce resting eggs to cope with environmental uncertainty and, as a consequence, egg banks have a fundamental role for population persistence. The egg bank dynamics of six clonal lineages of Heterocypris incongruens (Ostracoda) from Northern Italy were simulated. Clonal lineages W1 and W2 are the most common “winter ecotypes”, clonal lineages S1 and S2 are allochthonous “summer ecotypes” and clonal lineages I1 and I2 are relatively rare and generalist in terms of seasonality. Fecundity and proportion of resting eggs vary by clonal lineage, temperature and photoperiod. The clonal extinction risk was estimated in present climate conditions and under climate change. For comparison, and to assess the potential colonization of northern ponds, clonal lineages from Lampedusa Island (Southern Italy), L, were considered. Cohen’s general model was used for simulating egg bank dynamics and the extinction rate of each clonal lineage was estimated with uncertainty analysis. A 30 year simulation in present and climate change conditions was carried out. Extinction rates were lower in climate change conditions than in present conditions. Hydroperiod, hatching rate and egg deterioration rate were the critical factors that affected extinction rates. Extinction rates varied among clonal lineages. This suggests that H. incongruens might be able to have multiple responses to climate change due to its genetic diversity. In climate change conditions, W clonal lineages underwent a niche expansion, while a mismatch between photoperiod and hydroperiod might generate a detrimental effect on the phenology of summer S clonal lineages that might cause their extinction. Southern clonal lineages L, showing an intermediate extinction rate, might colonize northern temporary ponds.

scholarly journals The dynamics underlying avian extinction trajectories forecast a wave of extinctions

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 20190633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie J. Monroe ◽  
Stuart H. M. Butchart ◽  
Arne O. Mooers ◽  
Folmer Bokma
Keyword(s):  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Iucn Red List ◽  
Red List ◽  
Extinction Rate ◽  
Critically Endangered Species ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Historical Times ◽  
Risk Categories

Population decline is a process, yet estimates of current extinction rates often consider just the final step of that process by counting numbers of species lost in historical times. This neglects the increased extinction risk that affects a large proportion of species, and consequently underestimates the effective extinction rate. Here, we model observed trajectories through IUCN Red List extinction risk categories for all bird species globally over 28 years, and estimate an overall effective extinction rate of 2.17 × 10 −4 /species/year. This is six times higher than the rate of outright extinction since 1500, as a consequence of the large number of species whose status is deteriorating. We very conservatively estimate that global conservation efforts have reduced the effective extinction rate by 40%, but mostly through preventing critically endangered species from going extinct rather than by preventing species at low risk from moving into higher-risk categories. Our findings suggest that extinction risk in birds is accumulating much more than previously appreciated, but would be even greater without conservation efforts.

Climate change and the latitudinal selectivity of ancient marine extinctions

Paleobiology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Reddin ◽  
Ádám T. Kocsis ◽  
Wolfgang Kiessling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Tropical Species ◽  
Shelf Area ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Cold Temperatures ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Continental Shelf Area ◽  
Permian Mass Extinction

AbstractGeologically rapid climate change is anticipated to increase extinction risk nonuniformly across the Earth's surface. Tropical species may be more vulnerable than temperate species to current climate warming because of high tropical climate velocities and reduced seawater oxygen levels. To test whether rapid warming indeed preferentially increased the extinction risk of tropical fossil taxa, we combine a robust statistical assessment of latitudinal extinction selectivity (LES) with the dominant views on climate change occurring at ancient extinction crises. Using a global data set of marine fossil occurrences, we assess extinction rates for tropical and temperate genera, applying log ratios to assess effect size and Akaike weights for model support. Among the classical “big five” mass extinction episodes, the end-Permian mass extinction exhibits temperate preference of extinctions, whereas the Late Devonian and end-Triassic selectively hit tropical genera. Simple links between the inferred direction of climate change and LES are idiosyncratic, both during crisis and background intervals. More complex models, including sampling patterns and changes in the latitudinal distribution of continental shelf area, show tropical LES to be generally associated with raised tropical heat and temperate LES with global cold temperatures. With implications for the future, our paper demonstrates the consistency of high tropical temperatures, habitat loss, and the capacity of both to interact in generating geographic patterns in extinctions.

scholarly journals Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽  
Walaa A. Hassan ◽  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
Kaiwen Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Conservation Assessment ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Area Of Occupancy ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

scholarly journals Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis on hydrological extremes in a French Mediterranean catchment

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset ◽  
Lila Collet ◽  
Guillaume Thirel ◽  
Juraj Parajka ◽  
Guillaume Evin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Change Impact

scholarly journals Current extinction rate in European freshwater gastropods greatly exceeds that of the late Cretaceous mass extinction

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Neubauer ◽  
Torsten Hauffe ◽  
Daniele Silvestro ◽  
Jens Schauer ◽  
Dietrich Kadolsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Extinction Rate ◽  
Freshwater Gastropods ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Freshwater Biota ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
To Come ◽  
Mass Extinction Event

AbstractThe Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction event 66 million years ago eradicated three quarters of marine and terrestrial species globally. However, previous studies based on vertebrates suggest that freshwater biota were much less affected. Here we assemble a time series of European freshwater gastropod species occurrences and inferred extinction rates covering the past 200 million years. We find that extinction rates increased by more than one order of magnitude during the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction, which resulted in the extinction of 92.5% of all species. The extinction phase lasted 5.4 million years and was followed by a recovery period of 6.9 million years. However, present extinction rates in European freshwater gastropods are three orders of magnitude higher than even these revised estimates for the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction. Our results indicate that, unless substantial conservation effort is directed to freshwater ecosystems, the present extinction crisis will have a severe impact to freshwater biota for millions of years to come.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on future flood damage on the river Meuse, with a distributed uncertainty analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 77 (3) ◽  
pp. 1533-1549 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Detrembleur ◽  
F. Stilmant ◽  
B. Dewals ◽  
S. Erpicum ◽  
P. Archambeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
River Meuse ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Reflections on a seminal paper in conservation biology: the legacy of Peters and Darling (1985)

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Lesley Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conservation Biology ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Logical Framework ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Seminal Paper ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Species Translocation ◽  
Rapid Environmental Change

‘The Greenhouse Effect and Nature Reserves’ by Robert Peters and Joan Darling, published in the journal Bioscience more than 30 years ago, was a ground-breaking synthesis. Drawing on paleoecology, community ecology and biogeography, the review laid out many concepts about species vulnerability to climate change that have become central tenets of research on climate change adaptation in natural ecosystems. Remarkably, the paper also provided a clear and logical framework for flexible, forward-thinking and interventionist management action, including recommendations about the design of protected areas, and the need for species translocation to reduce extinction risk. Reflecting on the legacy of this paper, it is clear that the uptake of such approaches over the intervening decades has been extremely slow, representing many lost opportunities to reduce species vulnerability to rapid environmental change. This paper is a tribute to the prescience of Peters and Darling, and a call to revisit their farsighted advice to meet conservation challenges that continue to accelerate.

Local extinction risk of three species of lizard from Patagonia as a result of global warming

2016 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.L. Kubisch ◽  
V. Corbalán ◽  
N.R. Ibargüengoytía ◽  
B. Sinervo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Physiological Model ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
Reproductive Period ◽  
Local Extinction ◽  
Physiological Constraints ◽  
Local Warming ◽  
Environmental Temperatures ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Recently, Sinervo et al. (2010, Science, 328: 894–899) reported declines of lizard biodiversity due to local warming trends and altered thermal niches. Herein, we applied the Sinervo et al. (2010) physiological model to predict the local extinction risk of three species of lizard from Patagonia. Whereas the previous model used a single equation (for the extinctions of Blue Spiny Lizard (Sceloporus serrifer Cope, 1866) in the Yucatan Peninsula) relating environmental temperatures (Te) to hours of restriction (i.e., the period when lizards are forced into retreat sites because environmental temperatures are too high), we measured habitat-specific equations for the Te values of each species. We analyzed the vulnerability of Darwin’s Ground Gecko (Homonota darwinii Boulenger, 1885), Bariloche Lizard (Liolaemus pictus (Duméril and Bibron, 1837)), and Mountain Slope Lizard (Liolaemus elongatus Koslowsky, 1896) to climate change considering thermal physiological constraints on activity during the reproductive period. While Sinervo et al. (2010) predicted that the Phyllodactylidae family will not suffer from impacts of climate change, our physiological model predicted that 20% of the H. darwinii populations could become extinct by 2080. The physiological model also predicted that 15% of L. pictus populations and 26.5% of L. elongatus populations could become extinct by 2080. The most vulnerable populations are those located near the northern and eastern boundaries of their distributions.

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