Organic carbon burial in Mediterranean sapropels intensified during Green Sahara Periods since 3.2 Myr ago

Dark organic-rich layers (sapropels) have accumulated in Mediterranean sediments since the Miocene due to deep-sea dysoxia and enhanced carbon burial at times of intensified North African run-off during Green Sahara Periods (GSPs). The existence of orbital precession-dominated Saharan aridity/humidity cycles is well known, but lack of long-term, high-resolution records hinders understanding of their relationship with environmental evolution. Here we present continuous, high-resolution geochemical and environmental magnetic records for the Eastern Mediterranean spanning the past 5.2 million years, which reveal that organic burial intensified 3.2 Myr ago. We deduce that fluvial terrigenous sediment inputs during GSPs doubled abruptly at this time, whereas monsoon run-off intensity remained relatively constant. We hypothesize that increased sediment mobilization resulted from an abrupt non-linear North African landscape response associated with a major increase in arid:humid contrasts between GSPs and intervening dry periods. The timing strongly suggests a link to the onset of intensified northern hemisphere glaciation.

Sustained coral reef growth in the critical wave dissipation zone of a Maldivian atoll

Sea-level rise is expected to outpace the capacity of coral reefs to grow and maintain their wave protection function, exacerbating coastal flooding and erosion of adjacent shorelines and threatening coastal communities. Here we present a new method that yields highly-resolved direct measurements of contemporary reef accretion on a Maldivian atoll reef rim, the critical zone that induces wave breaking. Results incorporate the suite of physical and ecological processes that contribute to reef accumulation and show growth rates vary from 6.6 ± 12.5 mm.y−1 on the reef crest, and up to 3.1 ± 10.2 mm.y−1, and −0.5 ± 1.8 mm.yr−1 on the outer and central reef flat respectively. If these short-term results are maintained over decades, the reef crest could keep pace with current sea-level rise. Findings highlight the need to resolve contemporary reef accretion at the critical wave dissipation zone to improve predictions of future reef growth, and re-evaluate exposure of adjacent shorelines to coastal hazards.

Non-zero Yarkovsky acceleration for near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis

The leading source of uncertainty to predict the orbital motion of asteroid (99942) Apophis is a non-gravitational acceleration arising from the anisotropic thermal re-emission of absorbed radiation, known as the Yarkovsky effect. Previous attempts to obtain this parameter from astrometry for this object have only yielded marginally small values, without ruling out a pure gravitational interaction. Here we present an independent estimation of the Yarkovsky effect based on optical and radar astrometry which includes observations obtained during 2021. Our numerical approach exploits automatic differentiation techniques. We find a non-zero Yarkovsky parameter, A2 = (−2.899 ± 0.025) × 10−14 au d−2, with induced semi-major axis drift of (−199.0 ± 1.5) m yr−1 for Apophis. Our results provide definite collision probability predictions for the close approaches in 2029, 2036, and 2068.

Stratospheric Final Warmings fall into two categories with different evolution over the course of the year

In early spring the stratospheric zonal circulation reverses from westerly to easterly. The transition, called Stratospheric Final Warming (SFW), may be smooth and late, mainly controlled by the solar radiative heating of the polar region, or early and abrupt with rapid increase of polar temperature and deceleration of the zonal wind, forced by the planetary wave activity. Here we present a study, based on 71 years meteorological reanalysis data. Two composites of radiative and dynamical SFWs have been built. There is a very significant difference in the evolution during the year of polar temperature and 60°N zonal wind between the two composites. The state of the polar vortex on given month is anticorrelated with its state 2 to 3 months earlier. Early winter is anticorrelated with mid-winter and mid-winter with late winter/early spring. The summer stratosphere keeps a memory of its state in April–May after the SFW until late June.

An explosive component in a December 2020 Milan earthquake suggests outgassing of deeply recycled carbon

Carbon dragged at sub-arc depths and sequestered in the asthenospheric upper mantle during cold subduction is potentially released after millions of years during the breakup of continental plates. However, it is unclear whether these deep-carbon reservoirs can be locally remobilized on shorter-term timescales. Here we reveal the fate of carbon released during cold subduction by analyzing an anomalously deep earthquake in December 2020 in the lithospheric mantle beneath Milan (Italy), above a deep-carbon reservoir previously imaged in the mantle wedge by geophysical methods. We show that the earthquake source moment tensor includes a major explosive component that we ascribe to carbon-rich melt/fluid migration along upper-mantle shear zones and rapid release of about 17,000 tons of carbon dioxide when ascending melts exit the carbonate stability field. Our results underline the importance of carbon-rich melts at active continental margins for emission budgets and suggest their potential episodic contributions to atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Sedimentation strategies provide effective but limited mitigation of relative sea-level rise in the Mekong delta

The Mekong delta is experiencing rapid environmental change due to anthropogenic activities causing accelerated subsidence, sea-level rise and sediment starvation. Consequentially, the delta is rapidly losing elevation relative to sea level. Designating specific areas for sedimentation is a suggested strategy to encourage elevation-building with nature in deltas. We combined projections of extraction-induced subsidence, natural compaction and global sea-level rise with new projections of fluvial sediment delivery to evaluate the potential effectiveness of sedimentation strategies in the Mekong delta to 2050. Our results reveal that with current rates of subsidence and sediment starvation, fluvial sediments alone can only preserve elevation locally, even under optimistic assumptions, and organic sedimentation could potentially assume a larger role. While sedimentation strategies alone have limited effectiveness in the present context, combined with enhanced organic matter retention and interventions reducing anthropogenic-accelerated subsidence, they can considerably delay future relative sea-level rise, buying the delta crucial time to adapt.

Hydrological impact of widespread afforestation in Great Britain using a large ensemble of modelled scenarios

Ambitious afforestation proposals in the last decade target potential flood mitigation and carbon storage benefits but without a systematic, large-scale (>1000 km2) quantitative evaluation of their impacts on streamflow. Here, we assess the impact of afforestation on streamflow across twelve diverse catchments (c.500-10,000 km2) using a high-resolution land-surface model with a large ensemble of afforestation scenarios. Afforestation consistently decreases median and low streamflow. Median modelled flow is reduced by 2.8% ± 1.0 (1 s.d.), or 10 mm yr−1 ± 2.1 (1 s.d.), for a ten-percentage point increase in catchment broadleaf woodland. We find no nationally-consistent reduction of extreme floods. In larger catchments, planting extent is a stronger control on streamflow than location. Our results suggest that despite its potential environmental and societal benefits, widespread afforestation may inadvertently reduce water availability, particularly in drier areas, whilst only providing a modest reduction in extreme flood flows.

Asynchronous responses of aquatic ecosystems to hydroclimatic forcing on the Tibetan Plateau

High-altitude ecosystems react sensitively to hydroclimatic triggers. Here we evaluated the ecological and hydrological changes in a glacier-influenced lake (Hala Hu, China) since the last glacial. Rapid fluctuations of aquatic biomarker concentrations, ratios, and hydrogen isotope values, from 15 to 14,000 and 8 to 5000 years before present, provided evidence for aquatic regime shifts and changes in lake hydrology. In contrast, most negative hydrogen isotope values of terrestrial biomarkers were observed between 9 and 7,000 years before present. This shows that shifts of vapour sources and increased precipitation amounts were not relevant drivers behind ecosystem changes in the studied lake. Instead, receding glaciers and increased meltwater discharge, driven by higher temperatures, caused the pronounced ecological responses. The shifts within phytoplankton communities in the Late Glacial and mid Holocene illustrate the vulnerability of comparable ecosystems to climatic and hydrological changes. This is relevant to assess future ecological responses to global warming.

Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years

The contributions of single greenhouse gas emitters to country-level climate change are generally not disentangled, despite their relevance for climate policy and litigation. Here, we quantify the contributions of the five largest emitters (China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia) to projected 2030 country-level warming and extreme hot years with respect to pre-industrial climate using an innovative suite of Earth System Model emulators. We find that under current pledges, their cumulated 1991–2030 emissions are expected to result in extreme hot years every second year by 2030 in twice as many countries (92%) as without their influence (46%). If all world nations shared the same fossil CO2 per capita emissions as projected for the US from 2016–2030, global warming in 2030 would be 0.4 °C higher than under actual current pledges, and 75% of all countries would exceed 2 °C of regional warming instead of 11%. Our results highlight the responsibility of individual emitters in driving regional climate change and provide additional angles for the climate policy discourse.