scholarly journals METODE CONDITIONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE DALAM ANALISIS PENYEBARAN KASUS PENYAKIT TUBERCULOSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-34
Author(s):  
SANDIKA S. RAJAK ◽  
SUMARNO ISMAIL ◽  
RESMAWAN RESMAWAN
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Pattern ◽  
Car Model ◽  
Conditional Autoregressive

This research discusses the use of CAR model in finding out factors that significantly influence TBC transmission and figuring out its transmission patterns in Gorontalo city. The methods apply CAR model aiming to discover factors that significantly influence TBC transmission and Moran's Index aiming to identify its transmission pattern Findings reveal that the number of impoverished population and highlands in Gorontalo city are factors that significantly influence disease transmission The transmission patterns also indicate positive spatial autocorrelation that signifies a similar category among sub-districts

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Risk Factors of the COVID-19 Pandemic in New York State: Implication of Future Policies

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 627
Author(s):  
Anran Zheng ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Xiaojuan Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
New York ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
New York State ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
York State ◽  
Time Scan

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading in New York State since March 2020, posing health and socioeconomic threats to many areas. Statistics of daily confirmed cases and deaths in New York State have been growing and declining amid changing policies and environmental factors. Based on the county-level COVID-19 cases and environmental factors in the state from March to December 2020, this study investigates spatiotemporal clustering patterns using spatial autocorrelation and space-time scan analysis. Environmental factors influencing the COVID-19 spread were analyzed based on the Geodetector model. Infection clusters first appeared in southern New York State and then moved to the central western parts as the epidemic developed. The statistical results of space-time scan analysis are consistent with those of spatial autocorrelation analysis. The analysis results of Geodetector showed that both temperature and population density were strong indications of the monthly incidence of COVID-19, especially in March and April 2020. There is a trend of increasing interactions between various risk factors. This study explores the spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 in New York State over ten months and explains the relationship between the disease transmission and influencing factors.

scholarly journals Fernandez–Steel Skew Normal Conditional Autoregressive (FSSN CAR) Model in Stan for Spatial Data

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Dwi Rantini ◽  
Nur Iriawan ◽  
Irhamah Irhamah
Keyword(s):  
Random Effects ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Spatial Data Analysis ◽  
Spatial Random Effects ◽  
Car Model ◽  
Conditional Autoregressive ◽  
Leave One Out ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Skew Normal

In spatial data analysis, the prior conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is used to express the spatial dependence on random effects from adjacent regions. This paper provides a new proposed approach regarding the development of the existing normal CAR model into a more flexible, Fernandez–Steel skew normal (FSSN) CAR model. This approach is able to capture spatial random effects that have both symmetrical and asymmetrical patterns. The FSSN CAR model is built on the basis of the normal CAR with an additional skew parameter. The FSSN distribution is able to provide good estimates for symmetry with heavy- or light-tailed and skewed-right and skewed-left data. The effects of this approach are demonstrated by establishing the FSSN distribution and FSSN CAR model in spatial data using Stan language. On the basis of the plot of the estimation results and histogram of the model error, the FSSN CAR model was shown to behave better than both models without a spatial effect and with the normal CAR model. Moreover, the smallest widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out (LOO) statistical values also validate the model, as FSSN CAR is shown to be the best model used.

Periodic monitoring of vampire bats and rabies: a new framework for animal restoration projects in the Neotropics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Gonçalves ◽  
Daniel G. Streicker ◽  
Mauro Galetti
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Multidisciplinary Teams ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Food Web Structure ◽  
Land Bridge ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Restoration Project ◽  
Vampire Bats

Nowadays, restoration project might lead to increased public engagement and enthusiasm for biodiversity and is receiving increased media attention in major newspapers, TED talks and the scientific literature. However, empirical research on restoration project is rare, fragmented, and geographically biased and long-term studies that monitor indirect and unexpected effects are needed to support future management decisions especially in the Neotropical area. Changes in animal population dynamics and community composition following species (re)introduction may have unanticipated consequences for a variety of downstream ecosystem processes, including food web structure, predator-prey systems and infectious disease transmission. Recently, an unprecedented study in Brazil showed changes in vampire bat feeding following a rewilding project and further transformed the land-bridge island into a high-risk area for rabies transmission. Due the lessons learned from ongoing project, we present a novel approach on how to anticipate, monitor, and mitigate the vampire bats and rabies in rewilding projects. We pinpoint a series of precautions and the need for long-term monitoring of vampire bats and rabies responses to rewilding projects and highlighted the importance of multidisciplinary teams of scientist and managers focusing on prevention educational program of rabies risk transmitted by bats. In addition, monitoring the relative abundance of vampire bats, considering reproductive control by sterilization and oral vaccines that autonomously transfer among bats would reduce the probability, size and duration of rabies outbreaks. The rewilding assessment framework presented here responds to calls to better integrate the science and practice of rewilding and also could be used for long-term studying of bat-transmitted pathogen in the Neotropical area as the region is considered a geographic hotspots of “missing bat zoonoses”.

A STUDY OF VORTICAL STRUCTURES PAST THE LOWER PORTION OF THE AHMED CAR MODEL

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giancarlo Alfonsi ◽  
Agostino Lauria ◽  
Leonardo Primavera
Keyword(s):  
Lower Portion ◽  
Vortical Structures ◽  
Car Model

Analisis Pola Kebakaran Lahan di Kalimantan Timur dengan MODIS dan VIIRS

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Aditya Pranata Wibowo ◽  
Frederik Samuel Papilaya
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Directional Distribution

Kebakaran adalah suatu peristiwa timbulnya reaksi oksidasi saat adanya bahan bakar, oksigen, dan energi panas yang menyebabkan pembakaran yg tidak terkendali dan menyebabkan kerugian. Pemantauan secara spasial terhadap kebakaran menjadi suatu hal yang sangat penting untuk dikaji. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui daerah manakah yang paling banyak mengalami kebakaran dan juga pola dari kebakaran tersebut. Sumber data didapatkan dari website FIRMS yang merupakan data yang bersifat kuantitatif dan data primer. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah metode analisis Spatial Autocorrelation, Average Nearest Neighbor, Optimized Hotspot, Directional Distribution (Standard Devitional Ellipse), dan Temporal Collect Event. Hasil yang telah didapatkan dari analisis bermetode Directional Distribution, Optimized Hotspot, dan Temporal Collect Event adalah terdapat banyak titik api yang berada di Kecamatan Kutai Kartanegara, Kutai Barat, Kutai Timur, Berau, dan Paser. Dalam analisis Spatial Autocorrelation ditemukan bahwa terdapat korelasi antara lokasi terjadinya titik api dan ukuran sejati dari titik api. Analisis Average Nearest Neighbor menunjukkan bahwa titik api terkumpul pada beberapa tempat dan tidak tersebar merata.

Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matheus Supriyanto Rumetna ◽  
Eko Sediyono ◽  
Kristoko Dwi Hartomo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Complete Spatial Randomness ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Global Moran’S I ◽  
Spatial Randomness

Abstract. Bantul Regency is a part of Yogyakarta Special Province Province which experienced land use changes. This research aims to assess the changes of shape and level of land use, to analyze the pattern of land use changes, and to find the appropriateness of RTRW land use in Bantul District in 2011-2015. Analytical methods are employed including Geoprocessing techniques and analysis of patterns of distribution of land use changes with Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I). The results of this study of land use in 2011, there are thirty one classifications, while in 2015 there are thirty four classifications. The pattern of distribution of land use change shows that land use change in 2011-2015 has a Complete Spatial Randomness pattern. Land use suitability with the direction of area function at RTRW is 24030,406 Ha (46,995406%) and incompatibility of 27103,115 Ha or equal to 53,004593% of the total area of Bantul Regency.Keywords: Geographical Information System, Land Use, Geoprocessing, Global Moran's I, Bantul Regency. Abstrak. Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I. Kabupaten Bantul merupakan bagian dari Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang mengalami perubahan tata guna lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji perubahan bentuk dan luas penggunaan lahan, menganalisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan, serta kesesuaian tata guna lahan terhadap RTRW yang terjadi di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2011-2015. Metode analisis yang digunakan antara lain teknik Geoprocessing serta analisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan dengan Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah penggunaan tanah pada tahun 2011, terdapat tiga puluh satu klasifikasi, sedangkan pada tahun 2015 terdapat tiga puluh empat klasifikasi. Pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tata guna lahan tahun 2011-2015 memiliki pola Complete Spatial Randomness. Kesesuaian tata guna lahan dengan arahan fungsi kawasan pada RTRW adalah seluas 24030,406 Ha atau mencapai 46,995406 % dan ketidaksesuaian seluas 27103,115 Ha atau sebesar 53,004593 % dari total luas wilayah Kabupaten Bantul. Kata Kunci: Sistem Informasi Georafis, tata guna lahan, Geoprocessing, Global Moran’s I, Kabupaten Bantul.

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