scholarly journals Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016)

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-104
Author(s):  
Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Bound Test

Objective – The preceding three years (2014, 2015, and 2016) saw a drop in the price of oil which has impacted all parts of Omani macroeconomic life. This study aims to identify the association between oil price changes and aggregate household consumption expenditure in the Sultanate by analyzing the long term relationship between the variables of interest. Methodology/Technique – The (ARDL) Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound test of co-integration is used with 27 annual observations obtained between 1990 and 2016. Findings – The statistical results show that there is a long term, positive relationship between the two variables. Novelty – As Oman is heavily dependent on oil, any fluctuation in the price of oil will undoubtedly cause instability in the economy (macroeconomic variables) demonstrating the presence of a robust correlation between consumption and oil prices. The bound test of the ARDL approach demonstrates this relationship. This study is therefore useful for Muscat officials to identify ways to reduce the dependency on oil. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Total Household Consumption Expenditure; Crude Oil Price; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); Omani Economy. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi. 2019. Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016), J. Bus. Econ. Review 4 (2): 97 – 104. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.2(4) JEL Classification: D1, D13, D19, E30.

scholarly journals Do Crude Oil Price Changes Affect Economic Welfare? Empirical Evidence from Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-58
Author(s):  
K. Kamasa
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Welfare ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper sought to explore the impact of crude oil price changes on economic welfare in Ghana. The paper employed the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation technique on an annual time series data spanning 1983 – 2017. The findings revealed that crude oil price changes have a negative and significant impact on economic welfare in the short and long run, albeit marginal. In terms of covariates, the findings revealed that trade openness and gross fixed capital formation have positive and significant impact whilst interest rate have negative impact on economic welfare in both the short and long run. Foreign direct investment had a positive effect, albeit insignificant. The paper recommends among others, the hedging of prices with respect to imported crude oil so as to manage the risks associated with crude oil price changes on economic welfare.   Keywords: Economic Welfare; Crude Oil Prices Changes; Autoregressive Distributed Lag; Ghana

scholarly journals Pengaruh Sistem Perbankan, Makroekonomi, Dinamika Pasar Keuangan terhadap Perkembangan Sukuk Korporasi

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alyta Shabrina Zusryn ◽  
Rizqi Umar Al Hashfi ◽  
Ananta Hagabean Nasution
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Interest Rate Spread

Tujuan pada penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap perkembangan sukuk korporasi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan tahun 2013-2016 variabel makroekonomi, crude oil price, kredit perbankan konvensional, interest rate spread, aset perbankan syariah, outstanding obligasi korporasi indonesia, nilai kapitalisasi pasar saham syariah, dan standar deviasi Jakarta Interbank Offered Rate (JIBOR). Pada penelitian ini menggunakan analisis data time series yaitu Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) yang merupakan pengembangan dan melengkapi kelemahan dari analisis Vector Autoregresive (VAR). Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif harga minyak mentah dunia, perkembangan obligasi korporasi, dan aset perbankan syariah terhadap perkembangan sukuk korporasi. Selain itu, kapitalisasi pasar saham syariah, interest rate spread, dan volatilitas suku bunga pasar berdampak negatif terhadap perkembangan sukuk korporasi. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan adanya peningkatan permintaan dan penawaran pada sukuk korporasi di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menemukan adanya hubungan komplementer pada obligasi korporasi dan perbankan syariah pada perkembangan sukuk korporasi sehingga diharapkan adanya sinergi dan koordinasi para pemangku kepentingan yaitu pemerintah, pelaku industri, perusahaan dan pihak-pihak terkait

Dynamic Nexus between Economic Growth and Total Reserve and Aggregate Consumption Expenditure: An ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 683-688
Author(s):  
Md. Obidul Haque ◽  
Saddam Hossain ◽  
Mehedi Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Bound Test

This paper tries to see the association among reserve, aggregate consumption expenditure, and economic growth by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Both the explanatory variables such as consumption and reserve are statistically significant. The consumption expenditure is strongly affecting the economic growth both in the short and long-term. Performing the ADF and PP test the variables are integrated order of one I(1). The bound test confirmed that the long-term association exists between the variables. There ¬is a unidirectional association found among the variables.

Crude Oil Price and Food Security Related Variables in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu ◽  
Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Objective - This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and food security related variables (crude palm oil price, exchange rate, food import, food price index, food production index, income per capita and government development expenditure) in Malaysia using a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Methodology/Technique - The data covered the period of 1980-2014. Impulse response functions (IRFs) was applied to examine what will be the results of crude oil price changes to the variables in the model. To explore the impact of variation in crude oil prices on the selected food security related variables forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) was employed. Findings - Findings from IRFs suggest there are positive effects of oil price changes on food import and food price index. The VDC analyses suggest that crude oil price changes have relatively largest impact on real crude palm oil price, food import and food price index. This study would suggest to revisiting the formulation of food price policy by including appropriate weight of crude oil price volatility. In terms of crude oil palm price determination, the volatility of crude oil prices should be taken into account. Overdependence on food imports also needs to be reduced. Novelty - As the largest response of crude oil price volatility on related food security variables food vouchers can be implemented. Food vouchers have advantages compared to direct cash transfers since it can be targeted and can be restricted to certain types of products and group of people. Hence, it can act as a better aid compared cash transfers. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Crude oil price, Food security related variables, IRF, VAR, VDC

The Co-Movements Between Crude Oil Price and Internet Concerns: Causality Analysis in the Frequency Domain

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 224-239
Author(s):  
Jingjing Li ◽  
Ling Tang ◽  
Ling Li
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Oil Market

AbstractWith the boom of web technology, Internet concerns (IC) have become emerging drivers of crude oil price. This paper makes the first attempt to measure the frequency-varying co-movements between crude oil price and IC in five domains (i.e., fundamentals, supply-demand, crisis, war and weather) by using the frequency causality test method. Based on the monthly Brent spot price and search volumes (SVs) captured by Google Trends from January 2004 to September 2019, new and complementary insights regarding the co-movements between crude oil price and IC are obtained. 1) The co-movements between crude oil price and the IC of supply-demand, war, and weather support a neutral hypothesis at all frequencies due to the characteristics (low value or volatility) of these IC data. 2) There is a unidirectional causal relationship between crude oil price and the IC of fundamentals, running from the latter to the former at low frequencies (long-term). 3) There is a feedback relationship between crude oil price and the IC of crisis, with the IC of crisis driving crude oil price at medium and low frequencies (mid- and long-term) and crude oil price causing the IC of crisis to change permanently. The conclusions of this paper provide important implications for both oil market economists and investors.

scholarly journals THE ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKET VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN IN INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-415
Author(s):  
Muhammad Syafii Antonio ◽  
Hafidhoh Hafidhoh ◽  
Hilman Fauzi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Jones Index

This study attempts to examine the short-term and long-term relationship among selected global anddomestic macroeconomic variables fromeach country (Fed rate, crude oil price, Dow Jones Index, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation) for Indonesia and Malaysia Islamic capital market (Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI). The methodology used in this study is vector error correction model (VECM) for the monthly data starting from January 2006 to December 2010. The result shows that in the long-term, all selectedmacroeconomic variables except Dow Jones Index variable have significantly affect in both Islamic stock market FHSI and JII, while in the short-term there is no any selected macroeconomic variables that significantly affect FHSI and only inflation, exchange rate and crude oil price variables seem to significantly affect JII. Keywords : Islamic Stock Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, FTSE Hijrah Shariah Index, VAR/VECMJEL Classification: E52, E44

scholarly journals Exploring relationship between crude oil price volatility and stock indices movement using wavelet analysis: evidence from India and China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shekhar Mishra ◽  
Sathya Swaroop Debasish
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Discrete Wavelet ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
India And China

Purpose This study aims to explore the linkage between fluctuations in the global crude oil price and equity market in fast emerging economies of India and China. Design/methodology/approach The present research uses wavelet decomposition and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT), which decompose the time series into various frequencies of short, medium and long-term nature. The paper further uses continuous and cross wavelet transform to analyze the variance among the variables and wavelet coherence analysis and wavelet-based Granger causality analysis to examine the direction of causality between the variables. Findings The continuous wavelet transform indicates strong variance in WTIR (return series of West Texas Instrument crude oil price) in short, medium and long run at various time periods. The variance in CNX Nifty is observed in the short and medium run at various time periods. The Chinese stock index, i.e. SCIR, experiences very little variance in short run and significant variance in the long and medium run. The causality between the changes in crude oil price and CNX Nifty is insignificant and there exists a bi-directional causality between global crude oil price fluctuations and the Chinese equity market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, very limited work has been done where the researchers have analyzed the linkage between the equity market and crude oil price fluctuations under the framework of discrete wavelet transform, which overlooks the bottleneck of non-stationarity nature of the time series. To bridge this gap, the present research uses wavelet decomposition and MODWT, which decompose the time series into various frequencies of short, medium and long-term nature.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document