The Asymmetric Impacts of Crude Oil Prices, Inflation, the Exchange Rate, Institutional Quality, and Trade Balance on Tourist Arrivals in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear ARDL Model Approach

The nonlinear interaction of oil prices, inflation, the exchange rate, institutional quality, and trade balance on tourist arrivals in Bangladesh is scrutinized in this study. The technique utilized in this study, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), is a novel co-integrating strategy. The yearly time series data used in this study spanned 1995 to 2019. The NARDL bound test is performed to assess if variables like oil prices, inflation, the exchange rate, institutional quality, and trade balance on tourist arrivals are co-integrated. Oil prices and exchange rates, according to the findings, have a long-run negative and significant impact on tourism demand, whereas improvements in institutional quality are positively associated with tourist arrivals. Moreover, the study’s findings revealed a nonlinear kinship between the trade balance, inflation, and tourism demand across time. The asymmetric results obtained could enable Bangladeshi policymakers to make more precise decisions.

Long-term relationship estimation and coupling/decoupling analysis between motorway traffic and Gross Value Added. Specification of an ARDL cointegration approach and application to the Italian case study

As transportation is an activity derived from spatial complementarities between a certain supply at an origin and a certain demand at a destination, according to a general axiom it seems that economic activities entail transport de-mand. In this perspective, an essential analysis deals with the quantification of the relationships between transport demand and certain socioeconomic variables. Elasticity is a concept widely used in transport economics as a measure of the responsiveness of transport demand concerning different factors represented as independent variables in an econometric model and coupling/decoupling concepts have been proposed in literature. This paper deals with the estimation of elasticities of motorway traffic demand based on Gross Value Added (GVA), and the consequent investiga-tion of coupling/decoupling situation. The analysis is based on the application of an Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model with the F-bound test and of the related Error Correction model. Starting from the general ARDL model and the methodology for the verification of its robustness, the same model is applied to the Italian toll road network. The time series of GVA for goods and services and the overall length of the toll network from 1995 to 2019 are considered as explanatory variables of the total annual distance traveled by light and heavy vehicles. The various tests in the ARDL framework show a cointegration between the variables, under the fulfillment of all the diag-nostic requirements. In this way, the long-term elasticities and the short-term adjustment dynamics are estimated sepa-rately for the goods and services components of GVA, and light and heavy vehicles. Starting from stable estimates of elasticities, the long-term coupling and decoupling effects between motorway traffic of light and heavy vehicles and the national production of goods and services can be shown. The paper, as well as providing an updated picture of the Italian situation, identifies a methodological framework that can be transferred to other contexts for a sector of great interest to investors, such as the motorway sector. All this can be useful to meet the needs of numerous stakeholders, who want to deepen the links between the economic cycle and traffic demand on toll motorways.

Relationship between Macroeconomic Policy and Long-Run Economic Growth of Nepal

Background: The paper is an attempt to find the long-run relationship between macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nepal. The variables in the study are run across the Cobb-Douglas production model. Objective: This paper examines the relationship between Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Population, Trade openness, Money Supply and GDP growth economic growth in Nepal. Method: The ARDL bound test and Error Correction model incorporated in the study to examine the long-run relationship among macroeconomic variables. Conclusion: Based on the Bound Test of F-statistics the Cointegration Result exists among the variable and ARDL (1,1,1,1,1) relation is estimated. Implications: Since the study has found the existence of a cointegration relationship on the variables of the study and the long-term relationship among economic growth is significant with GFCF. The policy should be targeted at investment growth in Nepal.

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Pakistan

The study explored the link between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan covering the period from 1980 to 2018. This study used an augmented production function and combined the two neo-classical and ecological points. Most important is that this study used three different proxies of energy to check whether the relationship is proxy specific or not in Pakistan. Furthermore, there are some controls in terms of trade and foreign direct investment to check the robustness of the relationship. The time series approaches as augmented dickey fuller (ADF) unit root test and ARDL bound test approach has applied. The results indicated the long-run positive relationship between energy and growth in Pakistan and the relationship is not proxy specific. Therefore, it has suggested enhancing energy efficient policies, better resource allocation for energy supply.

Decomposition of the Sources of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Egypt: Evidence from the ARDL Model

This paper examines the behavior of the real exchange rate in Egypt over the period 1965–2018 by attempting to pursue three interrelated purposes. The first is to investigate the extent of deviations between the actual exchange rate and its equilibrium level and illustrate the magnitude of any currency misalignments. The second is to search for the different phases of over- and undervaluation of the local currency and explain the accompanying economic policies and/or factors leading to them. The third and ultimate purpose is to explore the role of transitory and permanent factors in deviating the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium level. Understanding these factors should help in the design of economic policies directed to address the misalignment of the local currency. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach is used and conducted for both the bilateral and effective real exchange rates to achieve these three purposes during the selected period. To derive the equilibrium exchange rate estimate, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach is adopted. The findings reveal that the Egyptian pound was misaligned from its equilibrium value during most of the examined period. The results confirm the relative importance of the terms of trade and degree of openness variables in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate in Egypt followed by investment ratio and government consumption variables. The local currency witnessed a recent phase of overvaluation, which began in 2009, until the free float of the local currency in November 2016, after which, the Egyptian pound was found to have experienced a new phase of undervaluation till the end of the period examined. The findings show a considerable relative impact of fundamental-based factors over a prolonged period spanning from 1986 to 2003 and at the end of the period examined as well. Moreover, the documented results lend general support to the fact that both permanent or fundamental-based factors and short-run shocks prove to be important influential factors impacting currency misalignment in Egypt.

Impact of hydropower consumption, foreign direct investment and manufacturing performance on CO2 emissions in the ASEAN-4 countries

Purpose The continuous increase in the discharges of carbon emissions (CO2) in the global atmosphere and the likely negative consequences of this practice on the atmosphere draw the attention of researchers and policymakers to argue on the causes and perpetrators of CO2 emissions. This paper aims to examine the impacts of hydropower consumption, FDI and manufacturing performance on CO2 emissions in the Association of southeast Asian nations (ASEAN)-4 countries. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the data on variables, such as hydro-power consumption, FDI, manufacturing value added and CO2 emissions spanning the period 1980–2015. Autoregressive Distributive Lag Bound test approach was used to assess the relationships among the variables. Findings The long run estimation of elasticities for all the countries indicates that the coefficient of hydro power consumption was found to be significantly related to CO2 emissions only in Malaysia. Additionally, the coefficients manufacturing performance were found to be significant in influence the amount of CO2 emission in all the ASEAN-4 countries. Furthermore, the coefficients of FDI inflows were found to be significant in explaining CO2 emissions in Malaysia and the Philippines, respectively. In the short run, the estimated results show that all the variables were found to be significant in explaining CO2 emissions in the countries under study. Research limitations/implications Singapore is excluded from the ASEAN-4 due to insufficient data on hydro energy consumption. Practical implications The study recommends that as Hydro power energy is a clean source of renewable electricity. Its consumption indicates a negative relationship with CO2 emissions. The countries should emphasize more on the use of hydro source of energy than the other sources which increase the rate of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. Originality/value As most of the relevant previous studies did not consider the simultaneous impact of hydro energy consumption, FDI and manufacturing value added on CO2 emissions in the ASEAN-4, this study is an important contribution to the existing relevant literature.

Infrastructures Development, Environmental Quality and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The Earth as a planet supports human life, living and activities, attracting extensive and intensive socioeconomic influences on the economy. Such activities like infrastructures development exerts increasing and divers environmental quality concerns and hence the economic growth. While these variables appear interrelated due to many factors including population growth, urbanisation, etc. However, the relationship between infrastructures, environment and economic growth is not largely known especially in Nigeria. This study therefore investigated their relationship using time series data between 1990 and 2019 by adopting Co-integration estimation technique through the Bound test approach of auto regressive distributive lag method using percentage share of building and construction sector of gross domestic product (GDP), carbon dioxide, population growth GDP growth rate, etc. as variables. The study revealed that the infrastructures development and environmental quality explain economic growth and have both short and long run relationships while specifically population growth and agriculture, forestry, fishing, value added variables are positively significant to economic growth. The findings evidences of both short and long run relationships among the variables are significant and it is consequently recommended that new roles for infrastructure sets and production processes should consider environmental quality mindsets to achieve positive green economy outcomes in Nigeria. JEL Classification: O18, O44, Q5

Infrastructures Development, Environmental Quality And Economic Growth In Nigeria

The earth as a planet supports human life, living and activities that attract extensive and intensive socioeconomic influences on the environment and the economy. Such activities like Infrastructures development exert increasing and divers environmental quality concerns and hence on economic growth. While these variables appear interrelated due to many factors including population growth, urbanization, industrialization etc., however, the nature of the interrelationship is not largely known especially in Nigeria. This study therefore investigated and examine their relationship using time series data between 1990-2019 by adopting Co-Integration estimation technique through the Bound Test approach of Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) method, using percentage share of Building and Construction Sector (BCS) of GDP, Carbon dioxide percentage of fuel combustion (CTE), annual growth rate of Agriculture (AFF), population growth, GDP growth rate etc. as variables. The study revealed that infrastructures development, environmental quality explains economic growth and they all have both short and long run relationship while specifically population growth and AFF variables are positively significant to economic growth. The finding evidences the significance of the relationship and consequently recommended new roles for infrastructure sets and production processes that consider environmental quality mindsets to achieve positive green economic growth outcomes in Nigeria.JEL Classification: Q5, O18, O44

A Review of the Unemployment - Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015: A Disaggregated Approach

The phenomenon of jobless growth in Nigeria in recent years has called to question the Okun’s law that the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) reduces unemployment. This study therefore, analyses the nexus between GDP growth and unemployment in Nigeria by disaggregating total output into its sectoral components to analyze the impact of sectoral output on unemployment using data from 1980 to-2015 employing the econometric technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach. Two ARDL models were specified. The first bound test revealed the existence of co integration between unemployment and GDP growth. The growth of GDP is positively related to unemployment in the long run but a negative relationship was found in the short run. The result of the disaggregated model (i.e the second ARDL model) found no long run relationship between unemployment and agriculture, industry, construction, trade, and services. We opined that the findings of the disaggregated model resulted from the disconnection between aggregate demand and aggregate supply of the productive sectors and the lack of direct linkages between the oil sector and other sectors of the economy. The study recommends that such linkages should be forged through enhanced funding of research and development, technological innovation and the development of value chain of agriculture and solid minerals output. Nigerians should be encouraged to consume locally made products. Efforts should be intensified to develop direct linkages between the oil sector and other sectors through input supply contracts and the development of downstream industries in the oil sector.