TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN CIS COUNTRIES: DOES THE GRAVITY MODEL WORK NOW?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ольга Сергеевна Чудинова ◽  
Екатерина Николаевна Корнейченко ◽  
Ольга Борисовна Чаганова ◽  
Анастасия Михайловна Ротова
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Cis Countries

В статье представлены результаты проверки адекватности гравита-ционной модели в условиях глобализации мировой торговли. По статистическим данным для стран СНГ за 2011-2018 годы на основе гравитационной модели исследовано влияние масштаба экономики торговых партнеров и расстояния между странами на объем импорта. The article presents the results of assessing the adequacy of the gravity model in the context of world trade globalization. According to statistics for the CIS countries for 2011-2018 the effect of size of economies and distance between the countries on import volumes is studied on the basis of gravity model.

scholarly journals Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Cristina Di Stefano ◽  
P. Lelio Iapadre ◽  
Ilaria Salvati
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Multilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Entire Network ◽  
The Belt And Road

This paper aims at investigating whether and how the intensity of trade between a pair of countries changes when they experience improvements in their infrastructural systems. We carry out our analysis considering countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a project specifically designed to promote infrastructural connectivity and therefore boost trade among the countries involved. Our empirical strategy relies on a particular specification of the gravity model, in which the dependent variable consists in an index of revealed trade preferences, calculated by comparing the actual value of trade flows between two countries with their expected value, proportional to the two countries’ total trade. Such methodology allows us to estimate bilateral trade intensity without resorting to the traditional “size” variables of the gravity model, taking the entire network of multilateral trade into account. We then study the possible impact of an improvement in infrastructure on a ‘gravity-adjusted’ measure of trade preferences, given by the residuals of our first estimations. Our results indicate that bilateral preferences among BRI countries will intensify inasmuch as they succeed in coordinating their infrastructural projects.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of ASEAN China Free Trade Agreement on Indonesia’s Trade Balance

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Junaidi
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Impact

Using trade flows data of ASEAN countries and China from 2002 to 2017, this studyestimates the impact of ACFTA on ASEAN countries and China’s trade balance in general,and also for Indonesia’s trade balance in specific by elaborating the impact of ACFTA onthe trade flows both exports and imports. Using the gravity model and estimating by OLSand PPML, this paper finds that the impact of tariffs elimination due to the implementationof ACFTA increased exports and imports for ASEAN countries and China in general, andfor Indonesia in particular. However, the aggregate trade balances of ASEAN membercountries and China is zero since the impact of ACFTA on imports offset the impact ofACFTA on exports. Tariff’s elimination due to the implementation of ACFTA on Indonesiashows a negative and statistically insignificant effect on imports and exports. Thus, tariffshave not played significant role on increasing Indonesia’s exports and imports. As a result,the impact of ACFTA on Indonesia’s trade balance cannot be quantified clearly since theimpact of tariffs on exports and imports are not significant.

Trade Blocks and the Gravity Model: Evidence from Western Hemispheric Countries

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-156
Author(s):  
E.M. Ekanayake ◽  
Amit Mukherjee ◽  
Bala Veeramacheneni
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Model Evidence ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Trade Blocks

We analyze the major trade blocks in Western Hemisphere and their effects on intra-regional trade flows using data for the period 1980-2006. We use an augmented gravity model to estimate the effect of various trade blocks on trade flows within and across membership other Western Hemispheric countries. The findings of this study are consistent with findings of previous studies on Western Hemisphere trade flows and shed some light on whether the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas is beneficial or not for Western Hemispheric countries.

scholarly journals Effect of preferential trade agreements on China’s energy trade from Chinese and exporters’ perspectives

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1776-1797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Galkin ◽  
Carlo Andrea Bollino ◽  
Tarek Atalla
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Preferential Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Preferential Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Trade ◽  
Energy Products ◽  
Trade Gravity Model

Purpose China is a major energy import powerhouse, its trade deals have significant impact on international energy trade and global energy markets. The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of energy in China’s preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and their impact on Chinese imports of oil, gas and coal. Design/methodology/approach An extended trade gravity model framework is applied to explore the dynamics of China’s annualized energy import flows from the 22 economies that have PTAs with it for the period 1995–2015. Findings The effect of PTAs on trade patterns varies across the product groups and agreement clauses. The dominant factor affecting trade flows of coal, crude oil and oil products is the average tariff level. Its impact is less significant for gas imports, which are more affected by policy arrangements represented by a PTA variable. The depth and scope of a PTA do not affect Chinese energy imports patterns. Research limitations/implications This paper is focused on exploring the effect of China’s trade and foreign relations strategies on its energy imports through the prism of its PTAs. Estimating the direct impact of China’s initiatives in the areas of trade, investment, security, culture, etc., on its trade flows of energy products and other product groups using the methodological framework proposed in this study would contribute to better understanding of the issue. Practical implications The findings can assist both China and energy exporting countries that target Chinese market in better understanding the drivers of trade flows of energy products and design their PTA strategies accordingly. Originality/value This study applies the trade gravity model framework to assess the impact of specific components of preferential trade agreements – tariff reduction and depth and scope of agreement – on energy trade flows differentiated by product group.

scholarly journals Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Bussière ◽  
Bernd Schnatz
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Model Based

scholarly journals International trade and endogenous standards: the case of GMO regulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAURO VIGANI ◽  
VALENTINA RAIMONDI ◽  
ALESSANDRO OLPER
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Approval Process ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Gmo Regulation ◽  
Bilateral Differences

AbstractThis paper quantifies the effect of GMO regulation on bilateral trade flows of agricultural products. We develop a composite index of GMO regulations and using a gravity model we show that bilateral differences in GMO regulation negatively affect trade flows. This effect is especially driven by labeling, approval process, and traceability. Our results are robust to the endogeneity of GMO standards to trade flows.

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