scholarly journals Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Cristina Di Stefano ◽  
P. Lelio Iapadre ◽  
Ilaria Salvati
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Multilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Entire Network ◽  
The Belt And Road

This paper aims at investigating whether and how the intensity of trade between a pair of countries changes when they experience improvements in their infrastructural systems. We carry out our analysis considering countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a project specifically designed to promote infrastructural connectivity and therefore boost trade among the countries involved. Our empirical strategy relies on a particular specification of the gravity model, in which the dependent variable consists in an index of revealed trade preferences, calculated by comparing the actual value of trade flows between two countries with their expected value, proportional to the two countries’ total trade. Such methodology allows us to estimate bilateral trade intensity without resorting to the traditional “size” variables of the gravity model, taking the entire network of multilateral trade into account. We then study the possible impact of an improvement in infrastructure on a ‘gravity-adjusted’ measure of trade preferences, given by the residuals of our first estimations. Our results indicate that bilateral preferences among BRI countries will intensify inasmuch as they succeed in coordinating their infrastructural projects.

scholarly journals AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TRADE STATUS AND DETERMINANTS BETWEEN CHINA AND "ONE BELT- ONE ROAD" COUNTRIES-BASED ON TRADE GRAVITY MODEL

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
QIAN-NAN ZHANG ◽  
XIAO-NA HE ◽  
MIRAJ AHMED BHUIYAN
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
One Belt One Road ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
The Silk Road

“One Road-One Belt”, (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) reminiscent of the Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure and trade project, initiated by China; that would stretch from East Asia to Europe, somehow recognized by the international community. Despite of criticism of this project, it is considered as an effective tool for promoting regional and bilateral trade deals. In this paper we have pointed out the problems that hindered the bilateral trades among countries along the route. Based on Trade gravity Model; bilateral trade model between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” was empirically tested in the article, followed by some suggestions.

scholarly journals An Empirical Study of Trade Status and Determinants between China and "One Belt- One Road" Countries- Based on Trade gravity Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiannan Zhang ◽  
XiaoNa He ◽  
Miraj Ahmed Bhuiyan
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
One Belt One Road ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
The Silk Road

Abstract “One Road-One Belt”, (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) reminiscent of the Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure and trade project, initiated by China; that would stretch from East Asia to Europe, somehow recognized by the international community. Despite of criticism of this project, it is considered as an effective tool for promoting regional and bilateral trade deals. In this paper we have pointed out the problems that hindered the bilateral trades among countries along the route. Based on Trade gravity Model; bilateral trade model between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” was empirically tested in the article, followed by some suggestions.

scholarly journals Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koffi Dumor ◽  
Li Yao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Neural Network Analysis ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under the auspices of the Chinese government was created as a regional integration and development model between China and her trade partners. Arguments have been raised as to whether this initiative will be beneficial to participating countries in the long run. We set to examine how to estimate this trade initiative by comparing the relative estimation powers of the traditional gravity model with the neural network analysis using detailed bilateral trade exports data from 1990 to 2017. The results show that neural networks are better than the gravity model approach in learning and clarifying international trade estimation. The neural networks with fixed country effects showed a more accurate estimation compared to a baseline model with country-year fixed effects, as in the OLS estimator and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood. On the other hand, the analysis indicated that more than 50% of the 6 participating East African countries in the BRI were able to attain their predicted targets. Kenya achieved an 80% (4 of 5) target. Drawing from the lessons of the BRI and the use of neural network model, it will serve as an important reference point by which other international trade interventions could be measured and compared.

The Belt and Road Initiative: Implications for China and East Asian Economies

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
SARAH CHAN
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Development Bank ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Funding Support ◽  
To Come ◽  
East Asian Economies ◽  
China Development ◽  
The Belt And Road

The China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is set to become a formidabledevelopment programme and its implications will be far reaching for East Asia, including ASEAN and China. It will provide further momentum for intra-Asian investment and trade flows and the implementation of such a strategy will also help to accelerate China's mergers and acquisitions activities in infrastructure, logistics and tourism. The BRI is expected to raise the Renminbi's international use in trade settlement and financing. A considerable amount of financing is estimated to come from Chinese institutions, particularly policy banks such as China Development Bank and a range of government-linked institutions. This article discusses China's funding support and investment to improve regional connectivity and analyses the repercussions of China's financial commitments under the Belt and Road Initiative for East Asia as well as its own economy.

scholarly journals مبادرة الحزام والطريق: نشأة وأهداف / The Belt and Road Initiative: Origin and Objectives

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-89
Author(s):  
Ding Long
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Silk Road ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Maritime Silk Road ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

Abstract The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a strategy initiated by Chinese government that seeks to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks with the aim of increasing commercial exchange, stimulating economic growth and improving regional integration. The BRI comprises a Silk Road Economic Belt and a 21st century Maritime Silk Road. The initiative defines five major priorities, namely policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds. The BRI has been associated with large investment programs in infrastructure projects. It is also an increasingly important umbrella mechanism for China’s bilateral trade with BRI partners.

Does the belt and road initiative stimulate China’s inbound tourist market? An empirical study using the gravity model with a DID method

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueying Huang ◽  
Yuanjun Han ◽  
Xuhong Gong ◽  
Xiangyan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Policy Guidance ◽  
The Belt And Road

This study examines the influence of the Belt and Road Initiative on China’s inbound tourist market, generated from countries and regions along the Belt and Road, using a gravity model with a difference-in-differences method. Panel data for 2008–2016 indicate that the Belt and Road Initiative has direct and significant positive effects on Chinese international tourist-generating markets, but the annual treatment effects are only partly significantly positive. We also examined the heterogeneous effects and mechanism of the Belt and Road Initiative on the inbound tourist market by grouping countries according to the levels of trade openness with China and economic development. The heterogeneous effect tests reveal that China’s international tourist origin countries with low levels of trade openness with China and high levels of economic development benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative. The findings of this study provide policy guidance on expansion for China’s inbound tourism market.

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Determinants of the Belt and Road Initiative: A Maximum Entropy Gravity Model Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 839-854
Author(s):  
Qinshi Huang ◽  
Xigang Zhu ◽  
Chunhui Liu ◽  
Wei Wu ◽  
Fengbao Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
Model Approach
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document