Modeling financial outcomes and quantifying risk in episode-based payment models

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. e278-e286
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karoun Bagamian ◽  
John D. Anderson ◽  
Farzana Muhib ◽  
Oliver Cumming ◽  
Lindsey A. Laytner ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Farrell ◽  
Fiona Greig ◽  
Chris Wheat ◽  
Max Liebeskind ◽  
Peter Ganong ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Christopher Hood ◽  
Rozana Himaz

This chapter draws on historical statistics reporting financial outcomes for spending, taxation, debt, and deficit for the UK over a century to (a) identify quantitatively and compare the main fiscal squeeze episodes (i.e. major revenue increases, spending cuts, or both) in terms of type (soft squeezes and hard squeezes, spending squeezes, and revenue squeezes), depth, and length; (b) compare these periods of austerity against measures of fiscal consolidation in terms of deficit reduction; and (c) identify economic and financial conditions before and after the various squeezes. It explores the extent to which the identification of squeeze episodes and their classification is sensitive to which thresholds are set and what data sources are used. The chapter identifies major changes over time that emerge from this analysis over the changing depth and types of squeeze.


Author(s):  
Sean S. Rajaee ◽  
Eytan M. Debbi ◽  
Guy D. Paiement ◽  
Andrew I. Spitzer

AbstractGiven a national push toward bundled payment models, the purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence as well as the effect of smoking on early inpatient complications and cost following elective total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in the United States across multiple years. Using the nationwide inpatient sample, all primary elective TKA admissions were identified from 2012 to 2014. Patients were stratified by smoking status through a secondary diagnosis of “tobacco use disorder.” Patient characteristics as well as prevalence, costs, and incidence of complications were compared. There was a significant increase in the rate of smoking in TKA from 17.9% in 2012 to 19.2% in 2014 (p < 0.0001). The highest rate was seen in patients < 45 years of age (27.3%). Hospital resource usage was significantly higher for smokers, with a length of stay of 3.3 versus 2.9 days (p < 0.0001), and hospital costs of $16,752 versus $15,653 (p < 0.0001). A multivariable logistic model adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities showed that smokers had an increased odds ratio for myocardial infarction (5.72), cardiac arrest (4.59), stroke (4.42), inpatient mortality (4.21), pneumonia (4.01), acute renal failure (2.95), deep vein thrombosis (2.74), urinary tract infection (2.43), transfusion (1.38) and sepsis (0.65) (all p < 0.0001). Smoking is common among patients undergoing elective TKA, and its prevalence continues to rise. Smoking is associated with higher hospital costs as well as higher rates of immediate inpatient complications. These findings are critical for risk stratification, improving of bundled payment models as well as patient education, and optimization prior to surgery to reduce costs and complications.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiago Rua ◽  
Daniela Brandão ◽  
Vanessa Nicolau ◽  
Ana Escoval

AbstractThe increasing chronicity and multimorbidities associated with people living with HIV have posed important challenges to health systems across the world. In this context, payment models hold the potential to improve care across a spectrum of clinical conditions. This study aims to systematically review the evidence of HIV performance-based payments models. Literature searches were conducted in March 2020 using multiple databases and manual searches of relevant papers. Papers were limited to any study design that considers the real-world utilisation of performance-based payment models applied to the HIV domain. A total of 23 full-text papers were included. Due to the heterogeneity of study designs, the multiple types of interventions and its implementation across distinct areas of HIV care, direct comparisons between studies were deemed unsuitable. Most evidence focused on healthcare users (83%), seeking to directly affect patients' behaviour based on principles of behavioural economics. Despite the variability between interventions, the implementation of performance-based payment models led to either a neutral or positive impact throughout the HIV care continuum. Moreover, this improvement was likely to be cost-effective or, at least, did not compromise the healthcare system’s financial sustainability. However, more research is needed to assess the durability of incentives and its appropriate relative magnitude.


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