What do people think about when generating subjective probabilities? A study of five health and financial outcomes

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alycia Chin ◽  
Wandi Bruine de Bruin
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Farrell ◽  
Fiona Greig ◽  
Chris Wheat ◽  
Max Liebeskind ◽  
Peter Ganong ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Christopher Hood ◽  
Rozana Himaz

This chapter draws on historical statistics reporting financial outcomes for spending, taxation, debt, and deficit for the UK over a century to (a) identify quantitatively and compare the main fiscal squeeze episodes (i.e. major revenue increases, spending cuts, or both) in terms of type (soft squeezes and hard squeezes, spending squeezes, and revenue squeezes), depth, and length; (b) compare these periods of austerity against measures of fiscal consolidation in terms of deficit reduction; and (c) identify economic and financial conditions before and after the various squeezes. It explores the extent to which the identification of squeeze episodes and their classification is sensitive to which thresholds are set and what data sources are used. The chapter identifies major changes over time that emerge from this analysis over the changing depth and types of squeeze.


2021 ◽  
pp. 000313482110249
Author(s):  
Arjun Verma ◽  
Zachary Tran ◽  
Joseph Hadaya ◽  
Catherine G. Williamson ◽  
Rhea Rahimtoola ◽  
...  

Background Retained surgical foreign bodies (RFB) are associated with inferior clinical and financial outcomes. The present work examined a nationally representative sample of all major operations to identify factors associated with RFB. Study Design The 2005-2017 National Inpatient Sample was used to identify adults undergoing cardiac, neurosurgical, orthopedic, genitourinary, gastrointestinal, vascular, and thoracic operations. International Classifications of Diseases 9th-10th Revisions diagnosis codes were used to identify instances of RFB. Results Of an estimated 71,445,042 hospitalizations, .02% had a diagnosis of RFB, with decreasing incidence from .03 to .02% over the study period (NPtrend < .001). Relative to vascular operations, gastrointestinal (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 2.12), thoracic (AOR 1.80), and multi-cavity (AOR 2.17) were associated with greater odds of RFB. Laparoscopic approach (AOR .33) and trauma-associated admission (AOR .52, all P < .001) were associated with reduced odds of RFB. Despite similar mortality, RFB was associated with increased odds of pulmonary infection (AOR 1.62), sepsis (AOR 1.26), and wound infection (AOR 5.15), as well as a 2.3-day increment in length of stay and $7700 in hospitalization costs (all P < .001). Conclusion The development of novel mitigation strategies may reduce the incidence of RFB in high-risk populations, such as those undergoing gastrointestinal, thoracic, and multi-cavity operations.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Micheli ◽  
Nickolas Gagnon

AbstractUnequal financial outcomes often originate from unequal chances. Yet, compared to outcomes, little is known about how individuals perceive unequal distributions of chances. We investigate empirically the role of different sources of unequal chances in shaping inequality perceptions. Importantly, we do so from an ex ante perspective—i.e., before the chances are realized—which has rarely been explored. In an online survey, we asked uninvolved respondents to evaluate ex ante the fairness of unequal allocations of chances. We varied the source of inequality of chances, using a comprehensive range of factors which resemble several real world situations. Respondents also evaluated how much control individuals hold over the distribution of chances. Results show that different sources generate different ex ante perception of fairness. That is, unequal chances based on socioeconomic and biological factors, such as gender, family income and ethnicity, are evaluated to be unfair relative to the same chances based on effort, knowledge, and benevolence. Results also show that, for most individuals, there is a positive correlation between perceived control of a factor and fairness of unequal chances based on that factor. Luck appears to be an exception to this correlation, ranking as high in fairness as effort, knowledge, and benevolence, but similarly low in individual control as ethnicity, family income, and gender.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s278-s279
Author(s):  
Maiko Kondo ◽  
Matthew Simon ◽  
Esther Babady ◽  
Angela Loo ◽  
David Calfee

Background: In recent years, several rapid molecular diagnostic tests (RMDTs) for infectious diseases diagnostics, such as bloodstream infections (BSIs), have become available for clinical use. The extent to which RMDTs have been adopted and how the results of these tests have been incorporated into clinical care are currently unknown. Methods: We surveyed members of the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America Research Network to characterize utilization of RMDT in hospitals and antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) involvement in result communication and interpretation. The survey was administered using Qualtrics software, and data were analyzed using Stata and Excel software. Results: Overall, 57 responses were received (response rate, 59%), and 72% were from academic hospitals; 50 hospitals (88%) used at least 1 RMDT for BSI (Fig. 1). The factors most commonly reported to have been important in the decision to adopt RMDT were improvements in antimicrobial usage (82%), clinical outcomes (74%), and laboratory efficiency (52%). Among 7 hospitals that did not use RMDT for BSI, the most common reason was cost of new technology. In 50 hospitals with RMDT for BSI, 54% provided written guidelines for optimization or de-escalation of antimicrobials based upon RMDT results. In 40 hospitals (80%), microbiology laboratories directly notified a healthcare worker of the RMDT results: 70% provided results to a physician, nurse practitioner, or physician assistant; 48% to the ASP team; and 33% to a nurse. Furthermore, 11 hospitals (22%) had neither guidelines nor ASP intervention. In addition, 24 hospitals (48%) reported performing postimplementation evaluation of RMDT impact. Reported findings included reduction in time to antibiotic de-escalation (75%), reduction in length of stay (25%), improved laboratory efficiency (20%), and reduction in mortality and overall costs (12%). Among the 47 hospitals with both RMDT and ASP, 79% reported that the ASP team routinely reviewed blood culture RMDT results, and 53.2% used clinical decision support software to do so. Finally, 53 hospitals (93%) used 1 or more RMDT for non–bloodstream infections (Fig. 1). Fewer than half of hospitals provided written guidelines to assist clinicians in interpreting these RMDT results. Conclusions: RMDTs have been widely adopted by participating hospitals and are associated with positive self-reported clinical, logistic, and financial outcomes. However, nearly 1 in 4 hospitals did not have guidelines or ASP interventions to assist clinicians with optimization of antimicrobial prescribing based on RMDT results for BSI. Also, most hospitals did not have guidelines for RMDT results for non-BSI. These findings suggest that opportunities exist to further enhance the potential benefits of RMDT.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None


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