scholarly journals Identifying Roles for Public Administrators to Foster Anticipatory Altruism for Severe Weather Preparednes

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-314
Author(s):  
Jennifer Le ◽  
Victoria Lydahl ◽  
Mark Shafer ◽  
Aimee Franklin
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Public Administrators ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Strategic Plans ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Severe Weather Event ◽  
Modest Level

Will people choose behaviors that benefit all persons in the community before a severe weather event? Or, will they choose behaviors that benefit themselves only? Knowing the answer to these questions can inform public administrators about the level of anticipatory altruism in their community. With this knowledge, they can design strategic plans that leverage a willingness to coproduce community preparedness. Over four hundred people in six severe weather and tornado prone states answered survey questions inviting them to choose between severe weather preparation options that benefit the community or the individual. Overall, our findings suggest a modest level of support for community preparation options, anticipatory altruism demonstrated by a willingness to pay, and intergenerational equity in their choices. These findings are salient in a time when governments may need to cut funding and rely more and more on foundations, nonprofits, and private efforts to provide a wide range of services. Government planners and emergency managers can use our results to strategically nudge residents into making severe weather preparations as well as to estimate support for co-production efforts with citizens to prepare the community for disasters.

scholarly journals Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul W. Miller ◽  
Thomas L. Mote
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
Accurate Representation ◽  
Severe Weather Event

Abstract. Weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs), short-lived convection forming in synoptically quiescent regimes, are a contemporary forecasting challenge. The convective environments that support severe WFTs are often similar to those that yield only nonsevere WFTs, and additionally, only a small proportion individual WFTs will ultimately produce severe weather. The purpose of this study is to better characterize the relative severe weather potential in these settings as a function of the convective environment. Thirty near-storm convective parameters for > 200 000 WFTs in the Southeast United States are calculated from a high-resolution numerical forecasting model, the Rapid Refresh (RAP). For each parameter, the relative likelihood of WFT days with at least one severe weather event is assessed along a moving threshold. Parameters (and the values of them) that reliably separate severe-weather-supporting from nonsevere WFT days are highlighted. Only two convective parameters, vertical totals (VT) and total totals (TT), appreciably differentiate severe-wind-supporting and severe-hail-supporting days from nonsevere WFT days. When VTs exceeded values between 24.6–25.1 °C or TTs between 46.5–47.3 °C, severe-wind days were roughly 5 × more likely. Meanwhile, severe-hail days became roughly 10 × more likely when VTs exceeded 24.4–26.0 °C or TTs exceeded 46.3–49.2 °C. The stronger performance of VT and TT is partly attributed to the more accurate representation of these parameters in the numerical model. Under-reporting of severe weather and model error are posited to exacerbate the forecasting challenge by obscuring the subtle convective environmental differences enhancing storm severity.

A warm-front triggered nocturnal tornado outbreak near Kiama, NSW, Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Simon A. Louis
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
South Coast ◽  
Horizontal Shear ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Warm Front ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Low Pressure System ◽  
Severe Weather Event

This paper documents the case of a nocturnal outbreak of tornadoes on the New South Wales (NSW) south coast on 23 February 2013, and provides an analysis of the conditions that led to the outbreak. These tornadoes were associated with the passage of a warm front which had developed on the eastern flank of a mature extratropical cyclone.The damage from the tornadoes is discussed, and an analysis of the synoptic and mesoscale conditions that led to the event is provided. An analysis of radar at the time of the event shows a series of vortices developing within a zone of horizontal shear just prior to the tornadoes developing. The tornadoes were difficult for operational forecasters to predict, partly due to the infrequent occurrence of nocturnal tornadoes of this type in NSW, and in part due to operational demands from the broader scale severe weather event that resulted from the low-pressure system. This paper presents an analysis of the event that may assist forecasters in identifying similar events in the future.

Analysis of the Algerian severe weather event in November 2001 and its impact on ozone and nitrogen dioxide distributions

Tellus B ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 993-1006
Author(s):  
W. Thomas ◽  
F. Baier ◽  
T. Erbertseder ◽  
M. Kaästner
Keyword(s):  
Nitrogen Dioxide ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Severe Weather Event

scholarly journals A high-resolution modelling case study of a severe weather event over New Zealand

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 119-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart Webster ◽  
Michael Uddstrom ◽  
Hilary Oliver ◽  
Simon Vosper
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Severe Weather Event

Identification of Severe Weather Event with 3D meteorological radar and MLP

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tulipa Gabriela Guilhermina Juvenal da Silva ◽  
Paulo Henrique Siqueira ◽  
Cesar Beneti ◽  
Maiko Buzzi ◽  
Leonardo Calvetti
Keyword(s):  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Meteorological Radar ◽  
Severe Weather Event

A comparison between 4D-VAR and cycling 3D-VAR methods for the simulation of a severe weather event in Central Italy. Preliminary results.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Mazzarella ◽  
Rossella Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Severe Weather Event

<p>Nowadays, the use of 4D-VAR assimilation technique has been investigated in several scientific papers with the aim of improving the localization and timing of precipitation in complex orography regions. The results show the positive impact in rainfall forecast but, the need to resolve the tangent linear and adjoint model makes the 4D-VAR computationally too expensive. Hence, it is used in operationally only in large forecast centres. To the aim of exploring a more reasonable method, a comparison between a cycling 3D-VAR, that needs less computational resources, and 4D-VAR techniques is performed for a severe weather event occurred in Central Italy. A cut-off low (992 hPa), located in western side of Sicily region, was associated with a strong south-easterly flow over Central Adriatic region, which supplied a large amount of warm and moist air. This mesoscale configuration, coupled with the Apennines mountain range that further increased the air column instability, produced heavy rainfall in Abruzzo region (Central Italy).</p><p>The numerical simulations are carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In-situ surface and upper-air observations are assimilated in combination with radar reflectivity and radial velocity data over a high-resolution domain. Several experiments have been performed in order to evaluate the impact of 4D-VAR and cycling 3D-VAR in the precipitation forecast. In addition, a statistical analysis has been carried out to objectively compare the simulations. Two different verification approaches are used: Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Fraction Skill Score (FSS). Both statistical scores are calculated for different threshold values in the study area and in the sub-regions where the maximum rainfall occurred.</p>

scholarly journals Severe weather event attribution: Why values won't go away

2020 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 142-149
Author(s):  
Eric Winsberg ◽  
Naomi Oreskes ◽  
Elisabeth Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Severe Weather ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Severe Weather Event

scholarly journals Role of stratospheric air in a severe weather event: Analysis of potential vorticity and total ozone

2001 ◽  
Vol 106 (D11) ◽  
pp. 11813-11823 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa A. Goering ◽  
William A. Gallus ◽  
Mark A. Olsen ◽  
John L. Stanford
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Severe Weather Event
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