scholarly journals DEMAND UNCERTAINTY, INVENTORY AND BUSINESS CYCLES

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 664-683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenichi Tamegawa
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Economic Boom

This paper introduces demand uncertainty and inventory into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We assume that firms must predict demand before production. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of several exogenous shocks on the model economy in our settings. A numerical simulation using our model shows the following results. When shocks that raise expected demand are given, inventory stocks increase because output exceeds demand. In the next period, firms release the inventory stock, reducing excess stock and decreasing output. Thus, inventory adjustment causes recession. This result implies that cyclical movement (economic boom and bust) continues until variables return to the steady state. Furthermore, we confirm that our model can reproduce stylized facts for inventory movements and enhance empirical fit relative to the model without inventory.

scholarly journals Business Cycles in Algerian Economy: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-100
Author(s):  
Abdelsalam BOUKHEROUFA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

The main objective of this paper is to highlight the most important shocks that drives the business cycles in the Algerian economy. Using Bayesian estimation techniques, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) using four time series of the Algerian macroeconomics. Through this estimated model, which succeeded in capturing the dynamics of the Algerian economy data, we found three main results: First, the main causes of business cycle fluctuations in the Algerian economy are aggregate demand shocks. Second, the of government spending shock play the most important role in output fluctuations. Third, empirical results show evidences of procyclical in government spending policies.

EXPECTATION ERRORS IN CREDIT MARKET AND BUSINESS CYCLES

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1359-1380
Author(s):  
Kenichi Tamegawa ◽  
Shin Fukuda
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Credit Market ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
Economic Boom

This study demonstrates how expectation errors in a credit market generate economic fluctuations. To this end, we employ simulation analysis using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our model includes two building blocks that are not included in the standard models: the banking sector and matching friction in the labor market. By introducing the banking sector, we can confirm that if economic agents fallaciously expect a rise in future asset prices, such expectations will cause an economic boom and bust. The variation of this fluctuation is quite large and the recession short-lived, but these drawbacks can be avoided by adding matching friction.

Interactive effects between monetary policy and fiscal policy based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ying Xie
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

From the beginning to the end, monetary policy has focused too much on the control of the supply side. At present, the single supply-based monetary policy is ineffective. Therefore, it is urgent to change the current single direct supply-side regulation and control policy and replace it with a non-single and indirect control policy that combines supply and demand. Based on machine learning algorithms, this paper constructs a monetary policy analysis model based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium methods to analyze the interactive effects of monetary policy and other policies. Moreover, this paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to simulate and analyze the economic effects of fiscal policy. In addition, this paper compares the economic effects of monetary policy and other policies and conducts verification and analysis through actual data. The obtained results show that the model constructed in this paper achieves the expected effect.

THE INTERNATIONAL IMPACT OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doriane Intungane
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

The recent financial crisis started a global debate on the role of financial policies, which led to financial system reforms in many countries. These reforms mainly consisted of increasing the usage of macroprudential policies. This dissertation seeks to understand whether macroprudential policies in financially integrated countries reduced their vulnerability to the impact of external shocks. Chapter 2 empirically examines the impact of macroprudential policies on cross-border bilateral credit growth. Capital requirements and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, in 15 lending countries and 34 borrowing countries between 2000 and 2014, are used in the analysis. The results show that in some countries, the increase of capital requirements is not effective in reducing international credit flows during periods of financial vulnerability. The impact of tightening LTV ratios is more heterogeneous across countries because LTV ratios are mainly used in the housing sector and not all countries change their LTV ratio frequently. Hence, cooperation across countries is necessary but also countries should make sure that the change of macroprudential policies targeting lenders and those targeting borrowers complement each other to avoid international leakages. Chapter 3 analyzes issues related to the international spillover of macroprudential policies through international banking activities using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous and time-varying macroprudential policies. The results show that a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios is effective in reducing credit growth despite the existence of cross-border banking activities and heterogeneous implementation of capital requirements across countries. In addition, international coordination of capital requirements is also effective in reducing credit growth but less effective than a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios. Chapter 4 focuses on the role of countercyclical LTV ratios in reducing transmission of shocks when international investors, holding domestic and foreign assets, face collateral constraint. Using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the analysis demonstrates that time-varying LTV ratios can reduce the transmission of shocks.

scholarly journals K-DSGE: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Saudi Arabia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Blazquez ◽  
Marzio Galeotti ◽  
Baltasar Manzano ◽  
Axel Pierru ◽  
Shreekar Pradhan
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic
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