On the role of vector modeling in a minimalistic epidemic model

AbstractPreliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios of climate-dependence based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in humidity may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 climate may drive only modest changes to pandemic size and duration. Our results suggest that, in the absence of effective control measures, significant cases in the coming months are likely to occur in more humid (warmer) climates, irrespective of the climate-dependence of transmission and that summer temperatures will not substantially limit pandemic growth.

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Role of Tourists on Emerging of Dengue Epidemic: Model Approach

The Journal of King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok ◽

10.14416/j.ijast.2016.06.002 ◽

2016 ◽

pp. 1-7

Author(s):

Klot Patanarapeelet ◽

Sittisede Polwaing ◽

Nairat Kanyamee ◽

Wannapa Panitsupakamon ◽

Passawan Noppakaew

Keyword(s):

Epidemic Model ◽

Dengue Epidemic ◽

Model Approach

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Modelling the role of opportunistic diseases in coinfection

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena ◽

10.1051/mmnp/2018034 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 13 (3) ◽

pp. 28

Author(s):

Marcos Marvá ◽

Rafael Bravo de la Parra ◽

Ezio Venturino

Keyword(s):

Epidemic Model ◽

Recovery Rate ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Backward Bifurcation ◽

Treatment Rate ◽

Opportunistic Disease ◽

Sis Epidemic Model ◽

Primary Disease ◽

Sis Epidemic

In this paper, we formulate a model for evaluating the effects of an opportunistic disease affecting only those individuals already infected by a primary disease. The opportunistic disease act on a faster time scale and it is represented by an SIS epidemic model with frequency-dependent transmission. The primary disease is governed by an SIS epidemic model with density-dependent transmission, and we consider two different recovery cases. The first one assumes a constant recovery rate whereas the second one takes into account limited treatment resources by means of a saturating treatment rate. No demographics is included in these models.Our results indicate that misunderstanding the role of the opportunistic disease may lead to wrong estimates of the overall potential amount of infected individuals. In the case of constant recovery rate, an expression measuring this discrepancy is derived, as well as conditions on the opportunistic disease imposing a coinfection endemic state on a primary disease otherwise tending to disappear. The case of saturating treatment rate adds the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, which fosters the presence of endemic coinfection and greater levels of infected individuals. Nevertheless, there are specific situations where increasing the opportunistic disease basic reproduction number helps to eradicate both diseases.

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An Age and Space Structured SIR Model Describing the Covid-19 Pandemic

10.1101/2020.05.15.20103317 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Rinaldo M Colombo ◽

Mauro Garavello ◽

Francesca Marcellini ◽

Elena Rossi

Keyword(s):

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Epidemic Model ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Sir Model ◽

Qualitative Properties ◽

Numerical Integrations ◽

Key Features ◽

Virus Spreading ◽

The Basic Reproduction Number

We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the present Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the relevance of quarantine and the role of care houses.

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Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Science ◽

10.1126/science.abc2535 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. eabc2535 ◽

Cited By ~ 55

Author(s):

Rachel E. Baker ◽

Wenchang Yang ◽

Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽

C. Jessica E. Metcalf ◽

Bryan T. Grenfell

Keyword(s):

Epidemic Model ◽

Preliminary Analysis ◽

Preliminary Evidence ◽

Control Measures ◽

Effective Control ◽

High Susceptibility ◽

Emerging Pathogen ◽

Geographic Variations ◽

Endemic Infections

Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of non-pharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction via susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest, without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.

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