Assessing the Financial Vulnerability of Emerging Markets

2016 ◽  
pp. 405-438
Author(s):  
Fahad Mansoor Pasha ◽  
Neslihan Yilmaz
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Financial Vulnerability ◽  
Coming Crisis ◽  
Financial Fluctuations

The consequences of the recent financial crises during the last two decades showed how important it is to monitor financial performance and try to predict a coming crisis. In an effort to predict a coming crisis, the authors calculate a vulnerability index based on a number of financial and economic indicators. This chapter analyzes the financial vulnerability of sixteen emerging countries as these countries are more vulnerable to financial fluctuations. The findings show that Peru, Russia, Indonesia, and Thailand are less vulnerable to a crisis, whereas, South Africa, Turkey, India, Egypt, and Hungary are more vulnerable to a crisis.

Assessing the Financial Vulnerability of Emerging Markets

2016 ◽  
pp. 2344-2376
Author(s):  
Fahad Mansoor Pasha ◽  
Neslihan Yilmaz
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Financial Vulnerability ◽  
Coming Crisis ◽  
Financial Fluctuations

The consequences of the recent financial crises during the last two decades showed how important it is to monitor financial performance and try to predict a coming crisis. In an effort to predict a coming crisis, the authors calculate a vulnerability index based on a number of financial and economic indicators. This chapter analyzes the financial vulnerability of sixteen emerging countries as these countries are more vulnerable to financial fluctuations. The findings show that Peru, Russia, Indonesia, and Thailand are less vulnerable to a crisis, whereas, South Africa, Turkey, India, Egypt, and Hungary are more vulnerable to a crisis.

scholarly journals Consumer financial vulnerability: identifying transmission linkages that could give rise to higher levels of consumer financial vulnerability

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
B De Clercg ◽  
J A Van Tonder ◽  
C J Van Aardt
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Financial Vulnerability ◽  
Transmission Path ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Prime Rate

Several macroeconomic indicators point to high consumer financial vulnerability in South Africa. These include, inter alia, a relatively high household debt-to-disposable income ratio, household consumption expenditure outstripping household disposable income and a declining real household net wealth-to-disposable income ratio. 12In a 2009 study, the first level of possible predictors of consumer financial vulnerability was identified. However, no study has been conducted in South Africa to establish the transmission path of consumer financial vulnerability. This paper attempts to identify such a transmission path by determining the order in which the four aspects of the consumer financial vulnerability index, namely consumer income, expenditure, savings and debt servicing vulnerability, impact on one another, making consumers more vulnerable. This was done by means of an econometric modelling technique called Vector Auto regression (VAR) using consumer financial vulnerability data series covering the period Q2 2009 to Q2 2012. 13The VAR results show that expenditure vulnerability received the highest coefficient of determination score. This indicates that expenditure problems are the Achilles’ heel of South African households, which activates the postulated consumer financial vulnerability index (CFVI) transmission path. To determine the extent to which other macroeconomic variables impact on the postulated CFVI transmission path, a consumer price index (CPI) time series was entered exogenously into the existing VAR equation. It appears from the results obtained that the exogenous 113 Consumer financial vulnerability inclusion of CPI in the model made a dramatic difference with respect to income and expenditure vulnerability. By including the prime lending rate variable exogenously in the CFVI transmission path, the strong impact of the prime rate on expenditure vulnerability became evident. Finally, by adding the expanded unemployment variable exogenously to the CFVI transmission path in addition to the CPI and prime rate variables, debt servicing vulnerability was strongly impacted. From the CFVI transmission path findings, it became evident that consumers are not able to afford their required necessities, which leads to their becoming expenditure vulnerable. If consumers cannot generate more income to compensate, they become income vulnerable. They draw on their savings to finance the excess expenditure and become savings vulnerable, and if they cannot afford the necessary credit they require to finance their expenditure and have no savings left, they become debt servicing vulnerable

Strategies to Promote the Safety of Vulnerable Road Users in Developing and Emerging Countries: South African Experience

2003 ◽  
Vol 1846 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hubrecht Ribbens
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Road Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Users ◽  
Vulnerable Road Users ◽  
The Caribbean

Road casualties are discussed from a worldwide perspective. More than 80% of annual traffic casualties occur in developing and emerging countries in Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East. Vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and bicyclists are a major road safety problem in these countries. In Asia, Africa, the Caribbean, and the Middle East, more than 40% of annual road fatalities involve pedestrians compared with less than 20% in Europe and the United States. The focus of this study is South Africa’s strategy to promote the safety of vulnerable road users. The extent of casualties among vulnerable road users and contributing factors are highlighted. Over the last decade, pedestrian fatalities have gradually and steadily declined in South Africa. This study describes the various policies, strategies, and action plans developed and implemented by different government levels in South Africa to promote road traffic safety, particularly the safety of vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and bicyclists. Barriers to successful implementation are also pointed out. Apart from applying a holistic approach by involving all relevant disciplines, a coordinated and sustained effort of all government levels was encouraged. Joint-venture funding projects among different government levels was emphasized to improve hazardous pedestrian locations. The role of the private sector in South Africa to promote pedestrian safety is also discussed. Practical guidelines are presented for developing and emerging countries to promote the safety of vulnerable road users.

scholarly journals An industry analysis of the power of human capital for corporate performance: Evidence from South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 486-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Morris
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Further Education ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Revenue Growth ◽  
Earnings Per Share ◽  
Capital Efficiency

Even in industrialised emerging economies, the value-generating competencies of a workforce, known as its human capital efficiency, are a key resource for commercial success. The objective of this research is to empirically investigate the relationship between human capital efficiency (as measured by value-added human capital) and the financial and market performance of companies listed on the Main Board and Alternative Exchange (ALT-X) of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Return on assets, revenue growth and headline earnings per share were used as financial performance indicators; while market-to-book ratio and total share return were used to measure market performance. Multivariate regressions were performed, with panel data covering 390 companies in the financial, basic materials, consumer services, consumer goods, industrial and technology industries from 2001 to 2011. First, human capital efficiency was found to have no effect on the market performance of listed companies in South Africa. Secondly, higher human capital efficiency was found to result in the extraction of greater returns from both tangible and intangible assets in all industries. Thirdly, higher profitability was found to be associated with higher human capital efficiency in almost every industry in South Africa, with the exception of the technology industry, where human capital efficiency was found to be independent of headline earnings per share. Finally, higher revenue growth was found to be positively associated with human capital efficiency in those industries which are not consumer-driven. In the consumer-driven industries, human capital efficiency contributes to bottom line profitability even though it is not a driver for revenue growth. Overall, the results of this study confirm that human capital efficiency enhances a company’s financial performance, whether it be through a greater capacity for production and service delivery, tighter cost controls or better use of company resources. Management in all South African industries are encouraged to develop the value-creating abilities of their employees through employer-driven personnel enrichment and training programs and by incentivising workers to pursue further education.

scholarly journals An empirical analysis of construction organisations’ competitive strategies and performance

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luqman Oyekunle Oyewobi ◽  
Abimbola Oluwakemi Windapo ◽  
Rotimi Olabode Bamidele James
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Chief Executive Officers ◽  
Chief Executive ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Competitive Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Financial Performance Measures ◽  
Executive Officers

Purpose – The essence of strategy formulation is to assist an organisation obtain a strategic fit with its environment and help enhance organisational continuous improvement in achieving performance excellence. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the type of competitive strategies used by construction organisations in attaining their strategic goals in South Africa. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs an inductive research approach using a well-structured questionnaire to elicit information from large construction organisations based in South Africa. Findings – The research identifies five strategic attributes that could assist organisations to grow their businesses and enhance their returns. It reveals that all Porters’ generic competitive strategies are significantly related to organisational financial performance measures except focus strategy. The research found that three generic competitive strategies are positively related to non-financial performance and that differentiation and cost-leadership strategies are capable of assisting organisations’ achieve their financial performance goals. Practical implications – The study results will be of immense benefit to chief executive officers as well as managers of construction organisations in growing their businesses and enhancing their corporate performance. Originality/value – The paper contributes both theoretically and empirically to the current discussion and findings on competitive strategy and its relationship with organisational performance. The results presented in the paper have important implications for the implementation of competitive strategies in construction companies and future studies in the area of strategic management.

Mixed-gender ownership and financial performance of SMEs in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatrice Desiree Simo Kengne
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Firm Survival ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Gender Composition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mixed Gender

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the presence of women among owner-stakeholders affects firms’ financial performance. Particularly, it extends the corporate governance literature by linking stakeholder theory and gender differences to explain why gender composition of ownership matters for firms’ performance. As the management of small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) revolves around owner-managers and their individual characteristics that are likely to affect their achievements, the study further investigates the relationship between the gender composition of ownership and the firm survival. Design/methodology/approach Using survey data on SMEs for 2007 and 2010, this study uses a panel-level heteroskedasticity technique and a probit methodology to assess the effect women’s presence among owners may exert on SMEs performance and survival, respectively. Findings Results indicate that firms jointly owned by men and women appear to perform better than those owned by men although the presence of women among owners does not correlate with firm survival. Research limitations/implications While the findings of this study shed some light on the performance impact of gender composition of firm ownership, reports based on the presence of women among owners may not present the full picture. Whether the ownership is shared equally between different genders might provide further insides on the magnitude and/or robustness of such effect. Moreover, a small sample period (T = 2) was used to analyse a single industrial sector (manufacturing), and even though the Hausman test confirmed the use of random-effects specification, caution should be taken when generalizing the findings to other cases. Practical implications The findings suggest that the leadership in mixed-gender context propels a perspective of women as a valuable resource within SMEs, but relying on it to sustain the survival would be unwise. Social implications South Africa scores particularly high on positive actions towards women entrepreneurship, and this is compounded in the SMEs sector by managerial attitudes that could offer positive developments for women. Originality/value The positive and significant relationship between women’s presence among owners and SMEs financial performance in South Africa complements the almost exclusively reported negative impact of gender diversity on firm performance. Consequently, mixed-gender owners’ team can be used as a fulcrum to promote SMEs growth in South Africa.

scholarly journals An Analysis and Comparison of Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Model Performance during Pandemic Situations in Developed and Emerging Markets

Mathematics ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Konstantin B. Kostin ◽  
Philippe Runge ◽  
Michel Charifzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Three Factor

This study empirically analyzes and compares return data from developed and emerging market data based on the Fama French five-factor model and compares it to previous results from the Fama French three-factor model by Kostin, Runge and Adams (2021). It researches whether the addition of the profitability and investment pattern factors show superior results in the assessment of emerging markets during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to developed markets. We use panel data covering eight indices of developed and emerging countries as well as a selection of eight companies from these markets, covering a period from 2000 to 2020. Our findings suggest that emerging markets do not generally outperform developed markets. The results underscore the need to reconsider the assumption that adding more factors to regression models automatically yields results that are more reliable. Our study contributes to the extant literature by broadening this research area. It is the first study to compare the performance of the Fama French three-factor model and the Fama French five-factor model in the cost of equity calculation for developed and emerging countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and other crisis events of the past two decades.

scholarly journals Bond Portfolio Allocations in South Africa Emerging Markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-80
Author(s):  
Jinghua Wang ◽  
John Bilson
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Portfolio Performance ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Bond Portfolio ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients ◽  
Developed World

Over the past fifty years, economic growth in emerging markets has been supported by investments in capital and technology from the developed world. The benefit of this development for the emerging markets, as measured by growth in income, employment, and wealth, is immediately apparent. There have also been significant advantages for the developed world through opportunities for higher risk adjusted returns from investments in emerging markets. This study explores the benefits of the diversification of global government bond portfolio, and provides complete performance evaluations of DMs with or without South Africa emerging market (SAEM) bonds. The study examines the benefits of inclusion of SAEM bonds in DMs, the degrees of financial integration among the research markets, the relative bond returns of dynamic factor models with time-varying coefficients and the robust tests of bond portfolio performance between DMs with SAEM and bond index. The results of this study provide important implications for global investors by identifying diversification gains in SAEM.

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