On Developing and Performance Evaluation of Adaptive Second Order Neural Network With GA-Based Training (ASONN-GA) for Financial Time Series Prediction

2018 ◽  
pp. 231-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarat Chandra Nayak ◽  
Bijan Bihari Misra ◽  
Himansu Sekhar Behera
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Single Layer ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Training Time ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
And Performance

Financial time series forecasting has been regarded as a challenging issue because of successful prediction could yield significant profit, hence require an efficient prediction system. Conventional ANN based models are not competent systems. Higher order neural networks have several advantages over traditional neural networks such as stronger approximation, higher fault tolerance capacity and faster convergence. With the aim of achieving improved forecasting accuracy, this article develops and evaluates the performance of an adaptive single layer second order neural network with GA based training (ASONN-GA). The global search ability of GA has been incorporated with the better generalization ability of a second order neural network and the model is found quite capable in handling the uncertainties and nonlinearities associated with the financial time series. The model takes minimal input data and considered the partially optimized weight set from previous training, hence a significant reduction in training time. The efficiency of the model has been evaluated by forecasting one-step-ahead closing prices and exchange rates of five real stock markets and it is revealed that the ASONN-GA model achieves better forecasting accuracy over other state of the art models.

scholarly journals Predicting Financial Prices of Stock Market using Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 21-32
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zulqarnain ◽  
◽  
Rozaida Ghazali ◽  
Muhammad Ghulam Ghouse ◽  
Yana Mazwin Mohmad Hassim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Data Mining Approach ◽  
Learning Tasks ◽  
Financial Prices ◽  
Stock Indexes

Financial time-series prediction has been long and the most challenging issues in financial market analysis. The deep neural networks is one of the excellent data mining approach has received great attention by researchers in several areas of time-series prediction since last 10 years. “Convolutional neural network (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) models have become the mainstream methods for financial predictions. In this paper, we proposed to combine architectures, which exploit the advantages of CNN and RNN simultaneously, for the prediction of trading signals. Our model is essentially presented to financial time series predicting signals through a CNN layer, and directly fed into a gated recurrent unit (GRU) layer to capture long-term signals dependencies. GRU model perform better in sequential learning tasks and solve the vanishing gradients and exploding issue in standard RNNs. We evaluate our model on three datasets for stock indexes of the Hang Seng Indexes (HSI), the Deutscher Aktienindex (DAX) and the S&P 500 Index range 2008 to 2016, and associate the GRU-CNN based approaches with the existing deep learning models. Experimental results present that the proposed GRU-CNN model obtained the best prediction accuracy 56.2% on HIS dataset, 56.1% on DAX dataset and 56.3% on S&P500 dataset respectively.

DEVELOPING TIME-BASED CLUSTERING NEURAL NETWORKS TO USE CHANGE-POINT DETECTION: APPLICATION TO FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (01) ◽  
pp. 51-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
KYONG JOO OH ◽  
TAE HYUP ROH ◽  
MYUNG SANG MOON
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Point Groups ◽  
Point Detection

This study suggests time-based clustering models integrating change-point detection and neural networks, and applies them to financial time series forecasting. The basic concept of the proposed models is to obtain intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to involve them in the forecasting model. The proposed models consist of two stages. The first stage, the clustering neural network modeling stage, is to detect successive change points in the dataset, and to forecast change-point groups with backpropagation neural networks (BPNs). In this stage, three change-point detection methods are applied and compared. They are: (1) the parametric approach, (2) the nonparametric approach, and (3) the model-based approach. The next stage is to forecast the final output with BPNs. Through the application to financial time series forecasting, we compare the proposed models with a neural network model alone and, in addition, determine which of three change-point detection methods performs better. Furthermore, we evaluate whether the proposed models play a role in clustering to reflect the time. Finally, this study examines the predictability of the integrated neural network models based on change-point detection.

scholarly journals FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS

2006 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 392
Author(s):  
A. Zorins
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Financial Forecasting ◽  
Neural Network Learning ◽  
Network Learning ◽  
Financial Time

This paper presents an application of neural networks to financial time-series forecasting. No additional indicators, but only the information contained in the sales time series was used to model and forecast stock exchange index. The forecasting is carried out by two different neural network learning algorithms – error backpropagation and Kohonen self-organising maps. The results are presented and their comparative analysis is performed in this article.

scholarly journals Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Wang ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Wen Fang ◽  
Hongli Niu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Invariant Distance ◽  
Elman Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Stochastic Time

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

scholarly journals Detecting Predictable Segments of Chaotic Financial Time Series via Neural Network

Electronics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 823
Author(s):  
Tianle Zhou ◽  
Chaoyi Chu ◽  
Chaobin Xu ◽  
Weihao Liu ◽  
Hao Yu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Phase Space ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Phase Point ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Financial Time

In this study, a new idea is proposed to analyze the financial market and detect price fluctuations, by integrating the technology of PSR (phase space reconstruction) and SOM (self organizing maps) neural network algorithms. The prediction of price and index in the financial market has always been a challenging and significant subject in time-series studies, and the prediction accuracy or the sensitivity of timely warning price fluctuations plays an important role in improving returns and avoiding risks for investors. However, it is the high volatility and chaotic dynamics of financial time series that constitute the most significantly influential factors affecting the prediction effect. As a solution, the time series is first projected into a phase space by PSR, and the phase tracks are then sliced into several parts. SOM neural network is used to cluster the phase track parts and extract the linear components in each embedded dimension. After that, LSTM (long short-term memory) is used to test the results of clustering. When there are multiple linear components in the m-dimension phase point, the superposition of these linear components still remains the linear property, and they exhibit order and periodicity in phase space, thereby providing a possibility for time series prediction. In this study, the Dow Jones index, Nikkei index, China growth enterprise market index and Chinese gold price are tested to determine the validity of the model. To summarize, the model has proven itself able to mark the unpredictable time series area and evaluate the unpredictable risk by using 1-dimension time series data.

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