Wind Speed Prediction Based on Improved Grey Neural Network Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 548-549 ◽  
pp. 1235-1240
Author(s):  
Bin Zeng ◽  
Jian Xiao Zou ◽  
Kai Li ◽  
Xiao Shuai Xin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Data Storage ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

Wind speed forecasting is an effective method to improve power stability of wind farm. Grey system theory have certain advantages in the study of poor information and uncertainty problems, it is suitable for the system with limited computing power and data storage capacity, such as wind turbine control system. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of grey model, we combined GM (1, 1) model and BP neural network prediction model in this paper, and improved the combined model by background value optimizing and introducing genetic algorithm. Through analyzing the simulation results and comparing the forecasting results with the actual wind speed, it is clear that the improved combined prediction model is superior to pure grey forecasting model and it meets the needs of the wind power control.

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction on Base of Improved Least Squares Support Vector Machine

2014 ◽  
Vol 599-601 ◽  
pp. 1972-1975
Author(s):  
Zheng Zhao ◽  
Long Xin Zhang ◽  
Hai Tao Liu ◽  
Zi Rui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

Accurate wind speed prediction is of significance to improve the ability to coordinate operation of a wind farm with a power system and ensure the safety of power grid operation. According to the randomness and volatility of wind speed, it is put forward that a WD_GA_LS_SVM short-term wind speed combination prediction model on basis of Wavelet decomposition (WD), Genetic alogorithms (GA) optimization and Least squares support vector machine (LS_SVM). Short-term wind speed prediction is carried out and compared with the neural network prediction model with use of the measured data of a wind farm. The results of error analysis indicate the combination prediction model selected is of higher prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals Wind speed prediction with RBF neural network based on PCA and ICA

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yagang Zhang ◽  
Chenhong Zhang ◽  
Yuan Zhao ◽  
Shuang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
Independent Component ◽  
Learning Ability ◽  
Random Fluctuation ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

Abstract Thanks to non-pollution and sustainability of wind energy, it has become the main source of power generation in the new era worldwide. However, the inherent random fluctuation and intermittency of wind power have negative effects on the safe and stable operation of power system and the quality of power. The key solving this problem is to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. In the paper, considering the forecasting accuracy is affected by many factors, we propose that, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is combined with Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to process the sample, which can weaken the mutual interference between the various factors, extract accurately independent component reflected the characteristics of wind farm and achieve the purpose of improving the accuracy of wind speed prediction. At the same time, the adaptive and self-learning ability of neural network is more suitable for wind speed sequence prediction. The prediction results demonstrate that compared with the traditional neural network predicting model (RBF, BP, Elman), this model makes full use of the information provided by varieties of relevant factors, weakens the volatility of wind speed sequence and significantly enhances the short-term wind speed forecasting accuracy. The research work in the paper can help wind farm reasonably arrange the power dispatching plan, reduce the power operation cost and effectively boost the large-scale development and utilization of renewable energy.

scholarly journals Advanced Wind Speed Prediction Model Based on a Combination of Weibull Distribution and an Artificial Neural Network

Energies ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athraa Ali Kadhem ◽  
Noor Wahab ◽  
Ishak Aris ◽  
Jasronita Jasni ◽  
Ahmed Abdalla
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

Short-Term Wind Speed Combination Prediction Model of Neural Network and Time Series

2012 ◽  
Vol 608-609 ◽  
pp. 764-769
Author(s):  
Hao Zheng ◽  
Jian Yan Tian ◽  
Fang Wang ◽  
Jin Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Input Variables

This paper uses neural network combined with time series to establish rolling neural network model to predict short-term wind speed in the wind farm. In order to improve wind speed prediction accuracy, this paper analyzes effects of wind direction on wind speed by gray correlation analysis and obtains the correlation coefficient between wind speed at next moment and current wind direction is the largest by calculating. Then wind direction at current moment, historical wind speed and residuals which determined by time series are used as input variables to establish wind prediction model with rolling BP neural network. The simulation results show that neural network combined with time series which considers wind direction could improve the prediction accuracy when wind speed fluctuation is large.

Very Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction of a Wind Farm Based on Artificial Neural Network

2012 ◽  
Vol 608-609 ◽  
pp. 677-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Ma ◽  
Shu Ju Hu ◽  
Hong Hua Xu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

Wind speed prediction is critical for wind energy conversion system since it not only can relieve or avoid the disadvantageous impact on power system, but also can enhance the competitive ability of wind power plants against others in electricity markets. The model presented in this paper was based on artificial neural network (ANN) and the selection of the model parameters was presented in detail. The autocorrelation function (ACF) of wind speed time series was used to determine the input variables of the neural network. The simulation was carried out with the proposed ANN model.The conclusion that the optimal network structure may be different corresponding to different error evaluation was drawn through a large number of simulation experiments. And the simulaiton results showed that the ANN model is less than 10.77% in terms of root mean square error and 5.86% in terms of mean absolute error compared with the persistence model.

The Wind Speed Prediction Based on AR Model and BP Neural Network

2012 ◽  
Vol 450-451 ◽  
pp. 1593-1596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cong Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Ar Model ◽  
Power Network ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Natural Wind ◽  
Measured Wind Speed

The output of the wind turbine has high randomness due to natural wind velocity. Whether the output can be predicted accurately or not is directly related to the feasibility of dispatching wind power in the power network. The key of wind farm output prediction is to predict the wind speed of wind farm site. This paper uses AR model and BP neural network to predict 24-hour wind speed, and proves the feasibility of these two predicted methods according to comparison with measured wind speed data. This paper has certain reference significance for improving the precision of wind speed prediction.

scholarly journals Wind Speed Forecast Based on the LSTM Neural Network Optimized by the Firework Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Bilin Shao ◽  
Dan Song ◽  
Genqing Bian ◽  
Yu Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Sudden Change ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Speed Prediction

Wind energy is a renewable energy source with great development potential, and a reliable and accurate prediction of wind speed is the basis for the effective utilization of wind energy. Aiming at hyperparameter optimization in a combined forecasting method, a wind speed prediction model based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network optimized by the firework algorithm (FWA) is proposed. Focusing on the real-time sudden change and dependence of wind speed data, a wind speed prediction model based on LSTM is established, and FWA is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the model so that the model can set parameters adaptively. Then, the optimized model is compared with the wind speed prediction based on other deep neural architectures and regression models in experiments, and the results show that the wind speed model based on FWA-improved LSTM reduces the prediction error when compared with other wind speed prediction-based regression methods and obtains higher prediction accuracy than other deep neural architectures.

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