Dynamic Prediction of Individual Customer’s Purchase Behavior

Each customer has specific purchase regularity. To predict the customers purchase behavior, some researchers have built a static model which not considere the environmental change and the customers characteristics. To dynamically predict customer purchase behavior, this paper introduces a posteriori estimation method. Based on the customers purchased information, the method combine with the customers current events, then applies the Bayes theorem to posteriori estimate the customers purchase behavior. The new method not only predict individual customers purchase behavior, but also improve the prediction accuracy. It will be helpful for the enterprises to optimize arrangements for the production and inventory and reduce operating costs.