FIGURE 42: FAO Food Price Index, world (2014–2016=100)

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Food Price

Crude Oil Price and Food Security Related Variables in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu ◽  
Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Objective - This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and food security related variables (crude palm oil price, exchange rate, food import, food price index, food production index, income per capita and government development expenditure) in Malaysia using a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Methodology/Technique - The data covered the period of 1980-2014. Impulse response functions (IRFs) was applied to examine what will be the results of crude oil price changes to the variables in the model. To explore the impact of variation in crude oil prices on the selected food security related variables forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) was employed. Findings - Findings from IRFs suggest there are positive effects of oil price changes on food import and food price index. The VDC analyses suggest that crude oil price changes have relatively largest impact on real crude palm oil price, food import and food price index. This study would suggest to revisiting the formulation of food price policy by including appropriate weight of crude oil price volatility. In terms of crude oil palm price determination, the volatility of crude oil prices should be taken into account. Overdependence on food imports also needs to be reduced. Novelty - As the largest response of crude oil price volatility on related food security variables food vouchers can be implemented. Food vouchers have advantages compared to direct cash transfers since it can be targeted and can be restricted to certain types of products and group of people. Hence, it can act as a better aid compared cash transfers. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Crude oil price, Food security related variables, IRF, VAR, VDC

Machine Learning Approach for the Prediction of Consumer Food Price Index

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeepta Kumar Sarangi ◽  
Deepti Sinha ◽  
Sachin Sinha ◽  
Neetu Mittal
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Machine Learning Approach

scholarly journals The Causal Linkage between Energy Price and Food Price

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4182
Author(s):  
Dervis Kirikkaleli ◽  
Ibrahim Darbaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
New Findings ◽  
Price Indexes ◽  
Causality Tests

This paper aims to reveal the causal relationship between energy prices and food prices and whether this relationship is similar in the food sub-groups forming the food price index used. As food prices more than doubled during the 2008 economic crisis, this relationship has received considerable attention from researchers. Many researches have been conducted to determine the causes and consequences of the 2008 food price crisis. Researches are mainly focused on crude oil and bio-energy in terms of “energy”. This research is not only differentiated by the data used but also by the methodology employed. The study attempts to add new findings to the empirical food price literature by utilizing relatively newly developed methods, namely Toda–Yamamoto causality, Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality, and spectral BC causality tests. The spectral BC causality test clearly reveals that there is bidirectional causality between the energy price index and food price indexes (grains, other food, and oils) at different frequencies.

Structure and Food Price Inflation

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilya Rahkovsky ◽  
Richard Volpe
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Market Concentration ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Retail Market ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Market Shares

AbstractWe pair Nielsen TDLinx data, 2004–2014, with Consumer Price Index data to investigate how changes in food retail market structure drive food price inflation. We find, in corroboration with much of the evidence to date, that market concentration is positively and significantly associated with higher food prices. We find the same to be true for store format concentration, or the homogeneity of food markets. As the market shares, or penetration, of supercenters, warehouse stores, limited assortment stores, and superettes increase at expense of traditional supermarkets, food price inflation decreases.

scholarly journals Stringency of Movement Restrictions Linked With Higher Retail Food Prices but Not Overall Prices for All Consumer Goods During COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 254-254
Author(s):  
Jessica Wallingford ◽  
William Masters
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Goods ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Movement Restriction ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Price Levels ◽  
Stringency Level ◽  
Retail Food

Abstract Objectives The COVID-19 crisis has disrupted economies and health systems across the globe and has brought substantial challenges for food systems. Government responses key to minimizing disease spread have included a number of movement restriction policies (e.g., school closures, stay at home measures, etc.). Such policies have impacted food consumption and purchasing behaviours and have harmed much of the face-to-face type of labour required for food retailing, which in turn may have impacted the affordability of diets. We use evidence from 133 countries to investigate the association between stringency in movement restriction policies and retail price levels for food and other consumer goods. Methods We use the International Monetary Fund's monthly national consumer price index (CPI), and food and non-alcoholic beverage index (FCPI), as well as a ratio of FCPI to CPI—the food price index (FPI)—for 133 countries from January 2017 to November 2020. Data on stringency in movement restriction policies and COVID-19 cases and mortality per million were obtained from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, respectively. Fixed effects regression models were used to estimate the association between stringency of COVID-19 movement restrictions and monthly differences in 2020 retail price levels (from average 2017–2019 levels) of foods and other consumer goods, while controlling for pandemic severity in each country and month. Results Regression models yielded a positive and significant relationship between stringency level and FCPI level (coeff. = 1.24–1.91; 95% CIs: 0.25–2.79) or FPI level (coeff. = 1.24–2.14; 95% CIs: 0.60–2.53). Alternatively, stringency level was either negatively associated with CPI level (coeff. = −0.57; 95% CI: −1.06 – −0.07) or not significantly associated with CPI level. Conclusions Government response stringency in COVID-19 movement restriction policies is linked with higher retail food price levels. Governments could consider implementing these policies alongside other measures (e.g., food assistance) to mitigate negative spillovers into the domain of food security and nutrition. Funding Sources This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UKAid through the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office of the UK.

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