An Empirical Study on the Corporate Financial Distress Prediction Based on Logistic Model: Evidence from China's Manufacturing Industry

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 368-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Jiming ◽  
Du Weiwei
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Financial Distress Prediction ◽  
Distress Prediction ◽  
Model Evidence

scholarly journals Dynamic Prediction of Financial Distress Based on Kalman Filtering

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Zhuang ◽  
Lianghua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filtering ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Dynamic Prediction ◽  
Discriminant Model ◽  
Financial Distress Prediction ◽  
Distress Prediction

The widely used discriminant models currently for financial distress prediction have deficiencies in dynamics. Based on the dynamic nature of corporate financial distress, dynamic prediction models consisting of a process model and a discriminant model, which are used to describe the dynamic process and discriminant rules of financial distress, respectively, is established. The operation of the dynamic prediction is achieved by Kalman filtering algorithm. And a generaln-step-ahead prediction algorithm based on Kalman filtering is deduced in order for prospective prediction. An empirical study for China’s manufacturing industry has been conducted and the results have proved the accuracy and advance of predicting financial distress in such case.

scholarly journals The Role of Board Independence and Ownership Structure in Improving the Efficacy of Corporate Financial Distress Prediction Model Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 333
Author(s):  
Shilpa H. Shetty ◽  
Theresa Nithila Vincent
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Ownership Structure ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Receiver Operating Curve ◽  
Financial Measures ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Financial Distress Prediction ◽  
Distress Prediction

The study aimed to investigate the role of non-financial measures in predicting corporate financial distress in the Indian industrial sector. The proportion of independent directors on the board and the proportion of the promoters’ share in the ownership structure of the business were the non-financial measures that were analysed, along with ten financial measures. For this, sample data consisted of 82 companies that had filed for bankruptcy under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). An equal number of matching financially sound companies also constituted the sample. Therefore, the total sample size was 164 companies. Data for five years immediately preceding the bankruptcy filing was collected for the sample companies. The data of 120 companies evenly drawn from the two groups of companies were used for developing the model and the remaining data were used for validating the developed model. Two binary logistic regression models were developed, M1 and M2, where M1 was formulated with both financial and non-financial variables, and M2 only had financial variables as predictors. The diagnostic ability of the model was tested with the aid of the receiver operating curve (ROC), area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and annual accuracy. The results of the study show that inclusion of the two non-financial variables improved the efficacy of the financial distress prediction model. This study made a unique attempt to provide empirical evidence on the role played by non-financial variables in improving the efficiency of corporate distress prediction models.

scholarly journals Financial Information Asymmetry: Using Deep Learning Algorithms to Predict Financial Distress

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 443
Author(s):  
Chyan-long Jan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Financial Information ◽  
Financial Distress Prediction ◽  
Distress Prediction

Because of the financial information asymmetry, the stakeholders usually do not know a company’s real financial condition until financial distress occurs. Financial distress not only influences a company’s operational sustainability and damages the rights and interests of its stakeholders, it may also harm the national economy and society; hence, it is very important to build high-accuracy financial distress prediction models. The purpose of this study is to build high-accuracy and effective financial distress prediction models by two representative deep learning algorithms: Deep neural networks (DNN) and convolutional neural networks (CNN). In addition, important variables are selected by the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID). In this study, the data of Taiwan’s listed and OTC sample companies are taken from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) database during the period from 2000 to 2019, including 86 companies in financial distress and 258 not in financial distress, for a total of 344 companies. According to the empirical results, with the important variables selected by CHAID and modeling by CNN, the CHAID-CNN model has the highest financial distress prediction accuracy rate of 94.23%, and the lowest type I error rate and type II error rate, which are 0.96% and 4.81%, respectively.

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