scholarly journals Preparedness or repeated short-term relief aid? Building drought resilience through early warning in southern Africa

Water SA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1 January) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Nhamo ◽  
T Mabhaudhi ◽  
AT Modi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Institutional Capacity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Drought Forecasting ◽  
Regional Drought ◽  
Drought Early Warning

Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to drought because of its dependence on climate-sensitive sectors of agriculture, hydroenergy and fisheries. Recurring droughts continue to impact rural livelihoods and degrade the environment. Drought severity in southern Africa is exacerbated by poor levels of preparedness and low adaptive capacity. Whilst weather extremes and hazards are inevitable, the preparedness to manage such hazards determines their impact and whether they become disasters. Southern Africa is often caught unprepared by drought as existing early warning systems lack the drought forecastingcomponent, which often results in reactionary interventions as opposed to well-planned and proactive response mechanisms. This study assesses the spatio-temporal changes of rainfall and aridity in southern Africa through an analysis of long-term precipitation and evaporation trends from 1960 to 2007. Stakeholder consultation was conducted in Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during the peak of the 2015/16 drought, focusing on overall drought impacts, current water resource availability, existing early warning systems, adaptation mechanisms and institutional capacity to mitigate and managedroughts as part of overall disaster risk reduction strategies. Average rainfall has decreased by 26% in the region between 1960 and 2007, and aridity has increased by 11% between 1980 and 2007. The absence of drought forecasting and lack of institutional capacity to mitigate drought impede regional drought risk reduction initiatives. Existing multi-hazard early warning systems in the region focus on flooding and drought monitoring and assessment. Drought forecasting is often not given due consideration, yet it is a key component of early warning and resilience building. We propose a regional drought early warning framework, emphasising the importance of both monitoring and forecasting as being integral to a drought early warning system and building resilience to drought.

scholarly journals Improving National and Regional Drought Early Warning Systems in the Greater Horn of Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (8) ◽  
pp. ES135-ES138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsegaye Tadesse ◽  
Nicole Wall ◽  
Michael Hayes ◽  
Mark Svoboda ◽  
Deborah Bathke
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Regional Drought ◽  
Drought Early Warning ◽  
Greater Horn Of Africa

Assessment of Food Security Early Warning Systems for East and Southern Africa

10.1596/29269 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ademola Braimoh ◽  
Bernard Manyena ◽  
Grace Obuya ◽  
Francis Muraya
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems

Early warning systems for biodiversity in southern Africa – How much can citizen science mitigate imperfect data?

2017 ◽  
Vol 208 ◽  
pp. 183-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phoebe Barnard ◽  
Res Altwegg ◽  
Ismail Ebrahim ◽  
Les G. Underhill
Keyword(s):  
Citizen Science ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Imperfect Data

scholarly journals Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to inform early warning systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 12217-12254 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Naumann ◽  
P. Barbosa ◽  
L. Garrote ◽  
A. Iglesias ◽  
J. Vogt
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Composite Indicator ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Vulnerability Indicator ◽  
Drought Early Warning

Abstract. Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine capacity to cope with drought. In order to develop an efficient drought early warning system and to be prepared to mitigate upcoming drought events it is important to understand the drought vulnerability of the affected regions. We propose a composite Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level in four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided in three main different geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa. Additionally, the western part of the Zambezi basin, the south-eastern border of the Congo basin and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape should also be included in this category. The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought disasters information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are a valuable contribution to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and should contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

scholarly journals Recognizing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Over 30 Years of Drought Early Warning Science Advances and Partnerships Promoting Global Food Security

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (6) ◽  
pp. 1011-1027 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Funk ◽  
Shraddhanand Shukla ◽  
Wassila Mamadou Thiaw ◽  
James Rowland ◽  
Andrew Hoell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Drought Early Warning

AbstractOn a planet with a population of more than 7 billion, how do we identify the millions of drought-afflicted people who face a real threat of livelihood disruption or death without humanitarian assistance? Typically, these people are poor and heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture and livestock. Most live in Africa, Central America, or Southwest Asia. When the rains fail, incomes diminish while food prices increase, cutting off the poorest (most often women and children) from access to adequate nutrition. As seen in Ethiopia in 1984 and Somalia in 2011, food shortages can lead to famine. Yet these slow-onset disasters also provide opportunities for effective intervention, as seen in Ethiopia in 2015 and Somalia in 2017. Since 1985, the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has been providing evidence-based guidance for effective humanitarian relief efforts. FEWS NET depends on a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) to help understand, monitor, model, and predict food insecurity. Here we provide an overview of FEWS NET’s DEWS using examples from recent climate extremes. While drought monitoring and prediction provides just one part of FEWS NET’s monitoring system, it draws from many disciplines—remote sensing, climate prediction, agroclimatic monitoring, and hydrologic modeling. Here we describe FEWS NET’s multiagency multidisciplinary DEWS and Food Security Outlooks. This DEWS uses diagnostic analyses to guide predictions. Midseason droughts are monitored using multiple cutting-edge Earth-observing systems. Crop and hydrologic models can translate these observations into impacts. The resulting information feeds into FEWS NET reports, helping to save lives by motivating and targeting timely humanitarian assistance.

scholarly journals Forecasting vegetation condition for drought early warning systems in pastoral communities in Kenya

2020 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. 111886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam B. Barrett ◽  
Steven Duivenvoorden ◽  
Edward E. Salakpi ◽  
James M. Muthoka ◽  
John Mwangi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Vegetation Condition ◽  
Pastoral Communities ◽  
Drought Early Warning

scholarly journals Challenges and Technical Advances in Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWSs)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duminda Perera ◽  
Ousmane Seidou ◽  
Jetal Agnihotri ◽  
Hamid Mehmood ◽  
Mohamed Rasmy
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Warning Systems

Flood early warning systems (FEWSs)—one of the most common flood-impact mitigation measures—are currently in operation globally. The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) strongly advocates for an increase in their availability to reach the targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Comprehensive FEWS consists of four components, which includes (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and forecasting, (3) warning, dissemination, and communication, and (4) response capabilities. Operational FEWSs have varying levels of complexity, depending on available data, adopted technology, and know-how. There are apparent differences in sophistication between FEWSs in developed countries that have the financial capabilities, technological infrastructure, and human resources and developing countries where FEWSs tend to be less advanced. Fortunately, recent advances in remote sensing, artificial intelligence (AI), information technologies, and social media are leading to significant changes in the mechanisms of FEWSs and provide the opportunity for all FEWSs to gain additional capability. These technologies are an opportunity for developing countries to overcome the technical limitations that FEWSs have faced so far. This chapter aims to discuss the challenges in FEWSs in brief and exposes technological advances and their benefits in flood forecasting and disaster mitigation.

Drought Management Norms: Is the Middle East and North Africa Region Managing Risks or Crises?

2020 ◽  
pp. 107049652096020
Author(s):  
Theresa Jedd ◽  
Stephen Russell Fragaszy ◽  
Cody Knutson ◽  
Michael J. Hayes ◽  
Makram Belhaj Fraj ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Management ◽  
Norm Diffusion ◽  
Drought Early Warning

The Middle East and North Africa region experiences severe socioeconomic and political impacts during droughts and faces increasing drought risk in future climate projections. The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction’s Sendai Framework and the International Drought Management Programme provide a global standard (a norm) to manage droughts through natural hazard risk reduction approaches. We use participatory engagement to evaluate whether norm diffusion has taken place in four countries. Data were collected in interviews, focus groups, workshops, and policy documents. Analysis reveals incomplete norm diffusion; stakeholders subscribe to relevant values, but national policies and implementation do not fully reflect the norm. Process tracing reveals that the availability of drought early warning data is a key barrier to risk reduction. Further more, a drought early warning system would not be feasible or sufficient unless paired with policy measures and financial mechanisms to reduce the political and economic costs of a drought declaration.

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