scholarly journals Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to inform early warning systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 12217-12254 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Naumann ◽  
P. Barbosa ◽  
L. Garrote ◽  
A. Iglesias ◽  
J. Vogt
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Composite Indicator ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Vulnerability Indicator ◽  
Drought Early Warning

Abstract. Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine capacity to cope with drought. In order to develop an efficient drought early warning system and to be prepared to mitigate upcoming drought events it is important to understand the drought vulnerability of the affected regions. We propose a composite Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level in four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided in three main different geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa. Additionally, the western part of the Zambezi basin, the south-eastern border of the Congo basin and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape should also be included in this category. The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought disasters information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are a valuable contribution to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and should contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

scholarly journals Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1591-1604 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Naumann ◽  
P. Barbosa ◽  
L. Garrote ◽  
A. Iglesias ◽  
J. Vogt
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Composite Indicator ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Drought Disaster ◽  
Vulnerability Indicator

Abstract. We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause–effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and hopefully contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

scholarly journals Recognizing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Over 30 Years of Drought Early Warning Science Advances and Partnerships Promoting Global Food Security

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (6) ◽  
pp. 1011-1027 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Funk ◽  
Shraddhanand Shukla ◽  
Wassila Mamadou Thiaw ◽  
James Rowland ◽  
Andrew Hoell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Drought Early Warning

AbstractOn a planet with a population of more than 7 billion, how do we identify the millions of drought-afflicted people who face a real threat of livelihood disruption or death without humanitarian assistance? Typically, these people are poor and heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture and livestock. Most live in Africa, Central America, or Southwest Asia. When the rains fail, incomes diminish while food prices increase, cutting off the poorest (most often women and children) from access to adequate nutrition. As seen in Ethiopia in 1984 and Somalia in 2011, food shortages can lead to famine. Yet these slow-onset disasters also provide opportunities for effective intervention, as seen in Ethiopia in 2015 and Somalia in 2017. Since 1985, the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has been providing evidence-based guidance for effective humanitarian relief efforts. FEWS NET depends on a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) to help understand, monitor, model, and predict food insecurity. Here we provide an overview of FEWS NET’s DEWS using examples from recent climate extremes. While drought monitoring and prediction provides just one part of FEWS NET’s monitoring system, it draws from many disciplines—remote sensing, climate prediction, agroclimatic monitoring, and hydrologic modeling. Here we describe FEWS NET’s multiagency multidisciplinary DEWS and Food Security Outlooks. This DEWS uses diagnostic analyses to guide predictions. Midseason droughts are monitored using multiple cutting-edge Earth-observing systems. Crop and hydrologic models can translate these observations into impacts. The resulting information feeds into FEWS NET reports, helping to save lives by motivating and targeting timely humanitarian assistance.

scholarly journals Forecasting vegetation condition for drought early warning systems in pastoral communities in Kenya

2020 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. 111886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam B. Barrett ◽  
Steven Duivenvoorden ◽  
Edward E. Salakpi ◽  
James M. Muthoka ◽  
John Mwangi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Vegetation Condition ◽  
Pastoral Communities ◽  
Drought Early Warning

scholarly journals Improving National and Regional Drought Early Warning Systems in the Greater Horn of Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (8) ◽  
pp. ES135-ES138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsegaye Tadesse ◽  
Nicole Wall ◽  
Michael Hayes ◽  
Mark Svoboda ◽  
Deborah Bathke
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Regional Drought ◽  
Drought Early Warning ◽  
Greater Horn Of Africa

scholarly journals Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability: Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

2013 ◽  
Vol 94 (6) ◽  
pp. 776-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
Will Pozzi ◽  
Justin Sheffield ◽  
Robert Stefanski ◽  
Douglas Cripe ◽  
Roger Pulwarty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Drought Monitoring ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Monitoring And Forecasting ◽  
Global Coverage ◽  
Drought Early Warning

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts, especially on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF), and the recent progress made toward its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional, and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global realtime drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental-to-global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress toward meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

scholarly journals Preparedness or repeated short-term relief aid? Building drought resilience through early warning in southern Africa

Water SA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1 January) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Nhamo ◽  
T Mabhaudhi ◽  
AT Modi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Institutional Capacity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Drought Forecasting ◽  
Regional Drought ◽  
Drought Early Warning

Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to drought because of its dependence on climate-sensitive sectors of agriculture, hydroenergy and fisheries. Recurring droughts continue to impact rural livelihoods and degrade the environment. Drought severity in southern Africa is exacerbated by poor levels of preparedness and low adaptive capacity. Whilst weather extremes and hazards are inevitable, the preparedness to manage such hazards determines their impact and whether they become disasters. Southern Africa is often caught unprepared by drought as existing early warning systems lack the drought forecastingcomponent, which often results in reactionary interventions as opposed to well-planned and proactive response mechanisms. This study assesses the spatio-temporal changes of rainfall and aridity in southern Africa through an analysis of long-term precipitation and evaporation trends from 1960 to 2007. Stakeholder consultation was conducted in Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during the peak of the 2015/16 drought, focusing on overall drought impacts, current water resource availability, existing early warning systems, adaptation mechanisms and institutional capacity to mitigate and managedroughts as part of overall disaster risk reduction strategies. Average rainfall has decreased by 26% in the region between 1960 and 2007, and aridity has increased by 11% between 1980 and 2007. The absence of drought forecasting and lack of institutional capacity to mitigate drought impede regional drought risk reduction initiatives. Existing multi-hazard early warning systems in the region focus on flooding and drought monitoring and assessment. Drought forecasting is often not given due consideration, yet it is a key component of early warning and resilience building. We propose a regional drought early warning framework, emphasising the importance of both monitoring and forecasting as being integral to a drought early warning system and building resilience to drought.

scholarly journals Efficacy of early warning systems in assessing country-level risk exposure to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 2352-2366
Author(s):  
Abroon Qazi ◽  
Mecit Can Emre Simsekler ◽  
Muhammad Akram
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Country Level

The CARE Telematics Network for the Surveillance of Influenza in Europe

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (05) ◽  
pp. 518-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bensadon ◽  
A. Strauss ◽  
R. Snacken
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Surveillance Networks ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
National Networks ◽  
First Time

Abstract:Since the 1950s, national networks for the surveillance of influenza have been progressively implemented in several countries. New epidemiological arguments have triggered changes in order to increase the sensitivity of existent early warning systems and to strengthen the communications between European networks. The WHO project CARE Telematics, which collects clinical and virological data of nine national networks and sends useful information to public health administrations, is presented. From the results of the 1993-94 season, the benefits of the system are discussed. Though other telematics networks in this field already exist, it is the first time that virological data, absolutely essential for characterizing the type of an outbreak, are timely available by other countries. This argument will be decisive in case of occurrence of a new strain of virus (shift), such as the Spanish flu in 1918. Priorities are now to include other existing European surveillance networks.

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