Mapping the development and implementation of climate services in the Greater Horn of Africa

<p>A plethora of programmes and projects focus on strengthening climate services in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA); a region of great economic importance in a changing Africa. However, knowledge of how key elements of climate services development and implementation at different stages of the process are addressed in these initiatives is very limited. To overcome this gap, we pursued a systematic review of existing literature under the auspices of the H2020 CONFER project. We scope the academic and grey literature by focusing on initiatives that empirically demonstrate the value added at different stages of climate service development and implementation such as data generation, post-processing, tailoring, and re-packaging of information for communication. Our analysis takes stock of the evolution of climate services in GHA and provides a synoptic overview of the current landscape of climate services at seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales, and across sectors and geographical scales in the region. It highlights the current emphasis on the deployment of climate services in specific countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda, while a strong thematic focus on services tailored for the agriculture sector. Our analysis also shows that while there is an increasing effort in tailoring and effectively communicating climate services through greater knowledge co-production, aspects such as accessibility, timeliness, and accuracy of climate services information remain key barriers to the uptake and use of such services. Finally, we identify opportunities for further improvement to the underlying processes of climate services development and implementation as well as future research and policy directions in this region of global importance.</p>

Insights on Water and Climate Change in the Greater Horn of Africa: Connecting Virtual Water and Water-Energy-Food-Biodiversity-Health Nexus

Water is the key limiting factor in socioeconomic and ecological development, but it is adversely affected by climate change. The novel virtual water (VW) concept and water, energy, food, biodiversity, and human health (WEFBH) nexus approach are powerful tools to assess the sustainability of a region through the lens of climate change. Climate change-related challenges and water are complex and intertwined. This paper analyzed the significant WEFBH sectors using the multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. The AHP model demonstrated quantitative relationships among WEFBH nexus sustainability indicators in the Greater Horn of Africa countries. Besides, the net VW imports and water footprints of major staple crops were assessed. The composite WEFBH nexus indices varied from 0.10 to 0.14. The water footprint of crops is increasing period by period. The results also revealed that most countries in the study area are facing WEFBH domains unsustainability due to weak planning or improper management strategies. The strong policy constancy among the WEFBH sector is vital for dissociating the high-water consumption from crop production, energy, environmental, and human health system. Thus, this study enhances insights into the interdependencies, interconnectedness, and interactions of sectors thereby strengthening the coordination, complementarities, and synergies among them. To attain sustainable development, we urgently call all public and private entities to value the amount of VW used in their daily activities and design better policies on the complex WEFBH nexus and future climate change.

Evaluation of the Skill of Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Global Prediction Systems over the Greater Horn of Africa

The skill of precipitation forecasts from global prediction systems has a strong regional and seasonal dependence. Quantifying the skill of models for different regions and timescales is important, not only to improve forecast skill, but to enhance the effective uptake of forecast information. The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction (S2S) database contains near real-time forecasts and re-forecasts from 11 operational centres and provides a great opportunity to evaluate and compare the skill of operational S2S systems. This study evaluates the skill of these state-of-the-art global prediction systems in predicting monthly precipitation over the Greater Horn of Africa. This comprehensive evaluation was performed using deterministic and probabilistic forecast verification metrics. Results from the analysis showed that the prediction skill varies with months and region. Generally, the models show high prediction skill during the start of the rainfall season in March and lower prediction skill during the peak of the rainfall in April. ECCC, ECMWF, KMA, NCEP and UKMO show better prediction skill over the region for most of the months compared with the rest of the models. Conversely, BoM, CMA, HMCR and ISAC show poor prediction skill over the region. Overall, the ECMWF model performs best over the region among the 11 models analyzed. Importantly, this study serves as a baseline skill assessment with the findings helping to inform how a subset of models could be selected to construct an objectively consolidated multi-model ensemble of S2S forecast products for the Greater Horn of Africa region, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization.

COVID-19 in pastoral contexts in the greater Horn of Africa: Implications and recommendations

COVID-19 is a global pandemic that continues to spread around the world, including to Africa where cases are steadily increasing. The African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention is leading the pandemic response in Africa, with direction from the World Health Organization guidelines for critical preparedness, readiness, and response actions. These are written for national governments, lacking nuance for population and local differences. In the greater Horn of Africa, conditions unique to pastoralists such as inherent mobility and limited health and service infrastructure will influence the dynamics of COVID-19. In this paper, we present a One Health approach to the pandemic, consisting of interdisciplinary and intersectoral collaboration focused on the determinants of health and health outcomes amongst pastoralists. Our contextualized public health strategy includes community One Health teams and suggestions for where to implement targeted public health measures. We also analyse the interaction of COVID-19 impacts, including those caused directly by the disease and those that result from control efforts, with ongoing shocks and vulnerabilities in the region (e.g. desert locusts, livestock disease outbreaks, floods, conflict, and development displacement). We give recommendations on how to prepare for and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and its secondary impacts on pastoral areas. Given that the full impact of COVID-19 on pastoral areas is unknown currently, our health recommendations focus on disease prevention and understanding disease epidemiology. We emphasize targeting pastoral toponymies with public health measures to secure market access and mobility while combating the direct health impacts of COVID-19. A contextualized approach for the COVID-19 public health response in pastoral areas in the Greater Horn of Africa, including how the pandemic will interact with existing shocks and vulnerabilities, is required for an effective response, while protecting pastoral livelihoods and food, income, and nutrition security.