The uncertainty of outcome hypothesis

2000 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Of Outcome

Uncertainty of Outcome and Attendance: Evidence from Russian Football

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-43
Author(s):  
Kseniya Baydina ◽  
◽  
Petr Parshakov ◽  
Marina Zavertiaeva ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Pattern ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Home Team ◽  
Premier League ◽  
Uncertainty Of Outcome

In this study, we estimate an attendance demand model in a reduced form, with uncertainty as one of the determinants of demand, to test the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH). Data from the Russian Football Premier League (RFPL) are used. These data fit our requirements for two reasons. First, there are few sellout matches, so demand for tickets in the RFPL is not restricted by stadium capacity. Secondly, there have been no articles devoted to the study of outcome uncertainty in the RFPL. The results indicate that the UOH does not explain the behavioral pattern of attendees in the RFPL. The dependence between attendance and uncertainty is U-shaped. We observe some evidence that attendee’s utility in the RFPL depends more on seeing a home team win.

scholarly journals Point Score Systems and Cooperative Incentives: The 3-1-0 Curse

Sports ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Kjetil Haugen ◽  
Knut Heen
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Nash Equilibria ◽  
Competitive Balance ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Score System ◽  
Point Score ◽  
Association Football ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Uncertainty Of Outcome ◽  
Score Systems

The purpose of this study is to analyze the consequences that point score systems in association football may have on potential collusion between teams. The study applies game theory and empirical analysis to derive and test hypotheses. The main findings of the article include Nash equilibria indicating a higher collusion potential associated with the 3-1-0 point score system than with the 2-1-0 system. Of particular interest is the finding that the competitive balance of the league affects collusion, and that (theoretically) high competitive balance in fact makes collusion more probable. Empirically, we are not able to prove that real-world participants do collude, but we provide circumstantial evidence that is consistent with collusion. The empirical analysis is based on a sample of 25 European top leagues with 823 played matches in the 2017 and 2016/17 seasons. These data are used to estimate uncertainty of outcome and draw ratio. We apply a standard t-test to test our main hypothesis. The main conclusion of the paper may hence be summed up as advice to reinstall the 2-1-0 point score system in association football.

Uncertainty of Outcome and Attendance in College Football: Evidence from Four Conferences

2012 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodney Paul ◽  
Brad R. Humphreys ◽  
Andrew Weinbach
Keyword(s):  
College Football ◽  
Uncertainty Of Outcome

The uncertainty of outcome and scoring effects on Nielsen ratings for Monday Night Football

2007 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 199-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodney J. Paul ◽  
Andrew P. Weinbach
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Of Outcome

Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Benno Torgler ◽  
Sascha L. Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Literature ◽  
Game Outcome ◽  
European Football ◽  
Knockout Tournament ◽  
Television Audience ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Uncertainty Of Outcome

Abstract Despite its prominence in the economic literature, our knowledge regarding the role of game outcome uncertainty (GOU) in spectator decision-making is fairly limited. Even worse, studies testing the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) by exploring TV demand for European football have further intensified the original ambiguity. In this paper, we revisit the role of GOU in spectator decision-making by testing the UOH with regard to two different sporting products: (1) domestic league and (2) knockout tournament games. Analyzing TV demand for almost 1,500 German football games, we find support for the UOH in league, though not in knockout tournament games.

Game importance as a dimension of uncertainty of outcome

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinrong Lei ◽  
Brad R. Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
Sports Teams ◽  
Game Outcome ◽  
Uncertainty Of Outcome ◽  
Margin Of Victory

AbstractSports teams have incentives to put more effort into games with an immediate effect on standings compared to games that do not, possibly affecting outcome uncertainty. We develop a measure of game outcome uncertainty, game importance (GI), that captures how each game affects a team’s standing and can be calculated for individual games. Results show that observed variation in GI explains observed variation in attendance, game outcomes, and margin of victory at MLB games over the 1994 through 2010 seasons, suggesting that GI is an influential indicator in fans’ attendance decisions, consistent with the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis.

Do TV Viewers Value Uncertainty of Outcome? Evidence from the Australian Football League

2015 ◽  
Vol 91 (295) ◽  
pp. 523-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trung Minh Dang ◽  
Ross Booth ◽  
Robert Brooks ◽  
Adi Schnytzer
Keyword(s):  
Australian Football League ◽  
Australian Football ◽  
Uncertainty Of Outcome

Using Prediction Market Prices to Differentiate Factors that Influence the Highest and Lowest Priced Tickets in Dynamic Pricing for Major League Baseball

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-63
Author(s):  
Rodney Paul ◽  
Andrew Weinbach
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Pricing ◽  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Major League ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Ticket Prices ◽  
Uncertainty Of Outcome

The use of prediction markets is extended to explain differences in preferences of fans that purchase different price levels of tickets under dynamic pricing for Major League Baseball.  Using data from eleven teams, this research investigates similarities and differences in variables that affect ticket prices for the highest-priced and lowest-priced tickets.  Key contrasts between the groups are found to stem from distinct preferences for uncertainty of outcome, measured by betting market odds, and team quality.  It is also shown that differences between the groups are attributable to sensitivity to factors such as key opponents, weekend games, opening day, and temperature.

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