Does certainty on the winner diminish the interest in sport competitions? The case of formula one

The literature acknowledges “Uncertainty of Outcome” (UO) as a major factor to explain the degree of interest that sporting competitions draw from fans and the general public. Uncertainty about the championship winner is crucial insofar as financial success depends on the capacity to attract potential consumers of spectacle. This paper focusses on one aspect of UO and examines to what extent reduction in the interest of followers is due to the removal of uncertainty about the world drivers’ champion in Formula One. To study how certainty on the winner undermines the degree of attention generated by the Formula One world drivers’ championship, we rely on two alternative indexes—similar although not identical—reported by Google Trends. Both of these appraisals are computed from data on users’ search intensity in Google, where weekly records are normalised on the relative amount of searches per calendar year. Thus, as dependent variables for the empirical analysis we use two measures: Google Trends News (GTN), to capture the intensity with which individuals search news articles associated; and Google Trends Web (GTW), to get a wider overview based on all kind of Internet contents. The former empirical analysis is carried out on 10 years of available data, while the latter approach estimates the models for a larger period of 14 years. Our empirical strategy includes additionally adopting indicator saturation techniques to address this issue while controlling for outliers.

Uncertainty of Outcome and Attendance: Evidence from Russian Football

In this study, we estimate an attendance demand model in a reduced form, with uncertainty as one of the determinants of demand, to test the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH). Data from the Russian Football Premier League (RFPL) are used. These data fit our requirements for two reasons. First, there are few sellout matches, so demand for tickets in the RFPL is not restricted by stadium capacity. Secondly, there have been no articles devoted to the study of outcome uncertainty in the RFPL. The results indicate that the UOH does not explain the behavioral pattern of attendees in the RFPL. The dependence between attendance and uncertainty is U-shaped. We observe some evidence that attendee’s utility in the RFPL depends more on seeing a home team win.

Understanding Season Ticket Holder Attendance Decisions

Predicting attendance at events is important for efficient facility management and marketing to maximize crowds. Most work to date is conducted at the aggregate level; however, the large crowd size being predicted often means important individual decisions are masked. In many markets, increased nonattendance by season ticket holders (STHs) is being reported, which is troubling given they have prepaid and are expected to be highly loyal. To understand who attends, rather than just how many, the authors analyze the “no-show” behavior of over 5,900 individual STH of one professional team over a season. Results show that in addition to game viewing and quality conditions, age, tenure, expenditure, and prior game attendance are predictors of individual attendance decisions, with differences in how individuals are influenced by winning and uncertainty of outcome. The paper expands understanding of drivers of STH attendance decisions and provides guidance toward managerial strategies for STH management.

Net gains: a comparison of competitive balance between the ANZ Championship and Suncorp Super Netball

PurposeCompetitive balance is critical for the survival of athletic leagues. A relationship between “uncertainty of outcome” and fan interest has been found in many sports all over the world. This paper examines competitive balance in professional netball in Australia and New Zealand by contrasting two competitions: the ANZ Championship, an elite Australasian competition that began in 2008 but was disbanded in 2016 as there was a perception of dominance by the Australian teams over their New Zealand rivals; and its Australian domestic replacement, Suncorp Super Netball, which started in 2017.Design/methodology/approachCompetitive balance is gauged in three broad ways: match result concentration, which looks at the evenness of each season; team dominance, where comparisons are made across several seasons; and within game equality, which examines the results of individual games.FindingsSeveral methods are used under each heading, with the results surprisingly showing that measured competitive balance was similar in the two competitions.Originality/valueIn sports management, quantitative analysis or sports economics, there are few published papers on netball. This is the first research to examine competitive balance in netball, and the findings have important ramifications for this women-only game, as it competes against other purveyors of professional sport.

How We Can Enhance Spectator Attendance for the Sustainable Development of Sport in the Era of Uncertainty: A Re-Examination of Competitive Balance

This study seeks to find factors that determine the mobilization of spectators in games of the Korean professional baseball league for sustainable development. In particular, it re-examines the uncertainty-of-outcome hypothesis by looking at the effect of competitive balance (CB) on seat occupancy in stadiums. Data for 2160 games over three years (2015–2017) from the archives of the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) were analyzed. The results show that the CB of the home team, with the entire teams, affects seat occupancy rate (SOR). It is also shown that there exists an inverted U-shaped curvilinear relationship between CB and SOR. However, the winning percentage of the home team in the entire league had a significant impact on the SOR. This implies that the overall athletic performance of the home team in the league competing with all other teams is much more important than the home team’s competitive balance in the season played before the game, for attracting fans to the stadium.

Optimal Tournament Design: Lessons From the Men’s Handball Champions League

This paper challenges the traditional seeding regime of round-robin tournaments that aims to create balanced groups. In particular, the design of the most prestigious European men’s handball club competition is compared to two alternative formats with equally strong groups via simulations. We find that it is possible to increase the quality of all matches played together with raising the uncertainty of outcome, essentially without sacrificing fairness. Our results have useful implications for the governing bodies of major sports.

League Ranking Mobility Affects Attendance: Evidence From European Soccer Leagues

Ranking mobility belongs to the indicators of dynamic long-term competitive balance, as it is based on season to season changes in league rankings. If the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis holds at the league level, ranking mobility might increase demand for league games. This assumption is tested by using panel regression models on data of 19 European domestic soccer leagues. Ranking mobility is found to significantly affect average stadium attendance per game, particularly if only the top 5 ranking positions are considered. Results suggest that the closeness of competition across seasons is more important for the fans than within a season.