Political Business Cycles and Imprisonment Rates in Italy: Report on a Work in Progress

2020 ◽  
pp. 211-218
Author(s):  
Dario Melossi
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Political Business Cycles ◽  
Work In Progress

Political Business Cycles and Imprisonment Rates in Italy: Report on a Work in Progress

1987 ◽  
Vol 16 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 211-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Melossi
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Criminal Behavior ◽  
Common Law ◽  
Civil Law ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Business Cycles ◽  
Work In Progress

Sociologists have shown the presence of statistically significant associations between changing economic conditions and rates of imprisonment in a number of countries characterized by common law systems. Furthermore, these associations do not seem to be mediated by changing rates of criminal behavior. This article considers the possibility that the same relationships exist in a civil law society, Italy, for the period 1896–1965. It then goes on to highlight an hypothesis and possible test to explain the nature of these associations, based on the intervening role of public opinion.

A new view into political business cycles: Household behaviour in Albania

2014 ◽  
Vol 64 (Supplement-1) ◽  
pp. 201-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Endrit Lami ◽  
Holger Kächelein ◽  
Drini Imami
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Public Employment ◽  
Political Business Cycles ◽  
Related Research ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Household Behaviour ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Main Factors

Over the last decades, there has been plenty of research and publications on Political Business Cycles (PBC), aimed at analysing and explaining the use of fiscal and monetary instruments to stimulate economic growth before elections, with the intention of impressing potential voters. Previous research on PBC in Albania reveals clear evidence of fiscal expansion before elections, but no significant changes in GDP and inflation as theory predicts. One possible explanation of this result could be economic agents’ expectations, which is the subject of this paper. We analyse consumers’ expectations before elections, the main factors underlying expectations, and the way in which these expectations influence their behaviour toward spending, and consequently the macroeconomic outcomes, deploying standard econometric methods widely applied in PBC related research. According to our research results, households’ consumption spending decreases before elections because of the higher uncertainty about their future economic situation due to the highly politicised public employment.

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