Stock Returns and the State of the Economy: A Historical Perspective Using Very Long-run UK Data

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Black ◽  
Patricia Fraser ◽  
Garry MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
The State ◽  
Long Run ◽  
State Of The Economy

scholarly journals Do financial markets respond to macroeconomic surprises? Evidence from the UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhold Heinlein ◽  
Gabriele M. Lepori
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
The State ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Macroeconomic Announcements ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Uk

AbstractWe investigate the response of UK asset prices to a large set of domestic scheduled macroeconomic announcements using data at a daily frequency from 1998 to 2017. Our results are mostly consistent with economic theory and follow two general patterns: (1) a stronger-than-expected economy raises stock returns, causes the home currency to appreciate, makes the yield curve steeper, and lowers the corporate credit quality spread; (2) higher-than-anticipated inflation leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency and raises the slope of the yield curve. Surprises about retail sales, claimant count rate, GDP, and industrial production have the most prevalent effects across the four asset classes in our data set. A large number of macroeconomic announcements increase trading activity in the stock market, whereas there is barely any (only minor) evidence that announcements (surprises) affect the volatility of asset prices. We also document that the effects of macroeconomic surprises are contingent not only upon the state of the economy but also on the state of the stock market (bull vs. bear).

scholarly journals Information Quality and Stock Returns Revisited

2010 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1419-1446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frode Brevik ◽  
Stefano d’Addona
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Information Quality ◽  
The State ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Equity Risk Premium ◽  
Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
High Elasticity ◽  
State Of The Economy

AbstractThis paper investigates the relation between information on the state of the economy and equity risk premium. We use a setup where investors have Epstein-Zin preferences and the economy randomly switches between booms and recessions. We are able to establish 2 key results: First, investors with high elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) will require lower excess returns for holding stocks if they are provided with better information on the state of the economy. Second, we find that this also holds for investors with moderate EIS if they are sufficiently risk averse.

Bulgaria’s Economy 1989–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-282
Author(s):  
Georgy Ganev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
The State ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Institutional Economic ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Degree Of Convergence

Based on an analytical narrative, and utilizing macroeconomic and new institutional economic theory, this exposition studies the Bulgarian economy during the decades after 1989. The three decades are placed in the context of the century-and-a-half-long Bulgarian development and convergence dynamic. They are then presented in terms of clearly defined sub-periods, and each sub-period is analyzed in detail. The analysis for each period focuses on three sets of issues: macroeconomic developments, microeconomic developments, and institutional changes. The exposition ends by applying the insights from the analysis to the question of whether the state of the economy in Bulgaria as of 2019 gives grounds for pessimism (Bulgaria will continue the cycles of unsuccessful convergence) or for optimism (Bulgaria will achieve an unprecedented degree of convergence in the coming decades). The answer is that at present both expectations can be supported by sets of serious arguments.

ANALYSIS OF THE STATE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE MAIN INDICATORS OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY OF THE TOKTOGUL REGION OF KYRGYZSTAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 71-73
Author(s):  
M. U. USUPOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
The State ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Agricultural Producers ◽  
Money Markets ◽  
Agricultural Enterprises ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Production Losses

The article is devoted to the state of the economy of the subject of the agricultural sector – the Toktogul region of Kyrgyzstan, as well as the formation of a land division, which is impossible without an influx of investments and ensuring the availability of monetary resources for agricultural producers. In our time, innovation is becoming the main means of increasing the benefits of economic entities by better meeting market demand and reducing production losses compared to competitors. Despite repeated attempts by the country to create a system of lending to agricultural companies, only a small percentage of them use credit resources. Various state aid schemes support a competitive environment in the money markets and guarantee relatively equal access to them for financial institutions and agricultural enterprises.

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