Changes in the Financial System of Vas County at the Beginning of the 20th Century

The purpose of the study. To showcase the growth of the region’s savings banks network during the period of Hungary’s capitalist development between the turn of the century and the World War I. Applied methods. Primarily data published in the financial almanac ‘Magyar Compass’ and newspaper articles of the time were sourced for the purposes of the study. Of financial indicators, balance sheet total and aggregate cash turnover figures were used. The study presents the accessible data of all the savings banks in operation at the time. Outcomes. By the end of 1912, various types of financial services had already been available in 28 Vas County settlements with 53 savings banks operating in the county. Their number was augmented by five branches and two affiliates. The savings banks furthermore established 17 disbursement points. This network of financial institutions was complemented by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (Osztrák-Magyar Bank, OMB) and two discount houses operating in Szombathely. The market district of Szombathely covered the whole county. While several larger microregional money markets were created, significant amounts were repatriated by Hungarians emigrating to America. Amidst all these changes, two banks’ bankruptcies made it known nationwide that the development of the local financial network was not without its failures.

Book Review: Robert J. Barro and Rachel M. McCleary, The Wealth of Religions: The Political Economy of Believing and Belonging, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019.

A preface, eight chapters, notes, a bibliography, and an index are what constitute Barro and McCleary’s in-depth analysis of the “wealth” of religions. The book’s title is very attractive, and at the same time quite provocative, as politics, economics and religions are widely debated topics in most societies these days, but people remain reserved to tackle certain aspects, in particular the link between money, markets and religious beliefs and belonging. Bringing together the views of an economist, Barro, and a moral philosopher, McCleary, leads to an interesting approach to religion as different from a social construct, the main idea upon which reflecting and debating religion has been based upon for years, if not centuries.

SPILLOVER EFFECT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S FORWARD GUIDANCE ON CHINA’S FINANCIAL MARKETS: FROM MECHANISM ANALYSIS TO EMPIRICAL TEST

This study analyzed the channels responsible for the spillover effect of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) forward guidance on China’s financial markets with an event study and EGARCH model with data collected over the past decade. The Fed’s forward guidance affects China’s foreign exchange, bond, stock and money markets. In the three trading days before and after the event, China’s foreign exchange market had an instantaneous reaction, the bond and stock market had lagged reactions, and the money market reaction lasted for the full event window. The Fed’s forward guidance on China’s financial market differs based on the Fed’s monetary policy, guidance type and whether the guidance content is adjusted or not.

Interest rate forecasts in Latin America

PurposeThis paper aims to assess the quality of interest rate forecasts for the money markets in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Venezuela for the period between 2001 and 2019. Future interest rate trends are of key significance for many business-related decisions. Thus, reliable interest rate forecasts are essential, for example, for banks that make profits by carrying out maturity transformations.Design/methodology/approachThe data that we analyze were collected by Consensus Economics through a monthly survey with over 120 renowned economists and were published between 2001 and 2019 in the journal Latin American Consensus Forecasts. The authors use the Diebold-Mariano test, the sign accuracy test, the TOTA coefficient and the unbiasedness test to determine the precision and biasedness of the forecasts.FindingsThe research reveals that the forecasting work carried out in Brazil, Chile and Mexico is remarkably successful. The quality of forecasts from Argentina and Venezuela, on the other hand, is significantly poorer.Originality/valueOver 50 studies have already been published with regard to the accuracy of interest rate forecasts, emphasizing the importance of the topic. However, interest rate forecasts for Latin American money markets have hardly been considered thus far. The paper closes this research gap. Overall, the analyzed database amounts to a total of 209 forecast time series with 28,451 individual interest rate forecasts. This study is thus far more comprehensive than all previous studies.

Predicting of Banking Stability Using Machine Learning Technique of Random Forests

The purpose of this research is to create a predicting model of banking stability in Indonesia. Authors use a small set of explanatory indicators primarily related to the banking industry and some relevant economic variables. Among the indicators candidate to be used in this study are the indicator of banking industry, the money markets, capital markets and creditors, and the macro-economic indicator. The source of data in this research is obtained from CEIC and SEKI (Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics) that published by Central Bank of Indonesia from 2004 and 2011. Principal Component Analysis is used to avoid the multi-collinearity problem when construct the model. Authors train the model using Random Forest Regression with data over the 2004-2007 period, and made predictions of global financial crisis that happened in 2008/9. Python 2.7.10 and scikit-learn version 0.20.0 module has been exploited for simulations and evaluation of the model. Numerical illustration is provided to demonstrate the efficiency of proposed model. As the result nine most components analysis obtained as input for the machine learning model with explained variance ratio around 97%, accuracy around 89%, and precision 91% and mean absolute error around 11%.

STRUCTURE AND MECHANISM OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE IN THE INDIAN BANKING SECTOR

The banking sector serves as the main source of resource mobilization in developing economies. Due to underdeveloped money markets and capital markets, limited availability of financial instruments and a lack of confidence in the financial system, banks become the dominant financial intermediary in the system. Given the banks intermediary role in providing stability to the financial system, many emerging economies have implemented policies to develop and restructure the banking sector. Good corporate governance is designed to address this problem. Further, government regulations and frequent interventions reduce the incentive for effective monitoring and, at the same time, make supervision (or supervisors) less effective. The present paper an attempt is made to discuss about the Structure and Mechanism of Corporate Governance in the Indian Banking Sector.

Perlindungan Konsumen Terhadap Penipuan yang dilakukan Broker Forex Ilegal

The phenomenon of Foreign Exchange (Forex) that runs in the investment sector and can help the development of Indonesia. Currently forex is a trend that is endemic and attracts the attention of many parties, both investors and the public in general. Foreign exchange or forex is a type of trade or transaction that trades the currency of a country against the currencies of other countries involving the main money markets in the world for 24 hours continuously, so in this case a legal protection is needed. The purpose of this research is to analyze legal protection in Forex transactions and legal sanctions imposed by the government on illegal Forex broker activities. This research uses a normative method that with a statutory approach. Sources of data used are primary data sources and secondary data sources. After primary legal data and secondary legal data are collected, the data will then be processed and analyzed using systematic legal data processing methods. The results showed that the alleged fraudulent investment fraud case under the guise of forex trading involved illegal brokers from the Guardian Capital Group (GCG) Asia, which harmed consumers. In line with that, the government issued a legal rule, namely Law No.8 of 1999 concerning Consumer Protection. The Consumer Protection Law that has been set by the government is the legal basis that is accurate and full of optimism in protecting consumer rights.