The Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Wages under Information Frictions

I propose a new mechanism for sluggish wages based on workers’ noisy information about the state of the economy. Wages do not respond immediately to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. The model is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment, namely, that wages are flexible for new hires and the flow opportunity cost of employment (FOCE) is pro-cyclicality. The model generates volatility in the labor market as well as wage and FOCE elasticities with respect to productivity, consistent with the data. (JEL E24, E32, J24, J31, J63)

The Mechanism for Effectively Meeting the Needs of the Population in Essential services by Regions Municipal Economy: Current State and Trends

The importance of effectively meeting the needs of the region's population in essential services under conditions of uncertainty is becoming an increasingly important and relevant area of economic development of the local economy. A systematic study carried out in the article pertaining to assessing and using the potential of interaction between the state, regions and municipalities in order to meet the needs of the population in essential services contributes to strengthening the capabilities of the local economy. But this cannot be achieved without analyzing the external and internal environment and implementing, on this basis, a forecast of a dynamic change in the economic situation, to which the power structures do not pay due attention. It was found that the shortcomings of the methodological tools lead to a low quality of the developed forecast and management decisions. The article clarifies the concept of strategic management in relation to the socio-economic development of territories, shows that solving such problem situations increases the potential of the local economy, aims at increasing efficiency and has a positive effect on strengthening the socio-economic potential of the Siberian territories. Proposals aimed at solving the problems of forecasting socio-economic development have been prepared. It is shown that the mechanism of work of state structures of territories and of business on the field of rendering socially important services to the population, based on the use of optimization theory in forecasting activity, allows to reveal unused opportunities and redistribute them in the areas being the bottlenecks. The proposals include a conceptually distributed in time optimization model of effective solutions to meet the needs of the population in the region in services based on the real state of the economy and the emerging prospects for dynamic change towards growth. This view of the problems of the local economy makes it possible to use the proposed organizational and economic solutions to the challenges with a high degree of efficiency. This stimulates the search for new approaches to the study of the problems faced by municipalities, the identification of relevant forms and methods of solving socially significant problems.

Key Rate and Loan Market in Russia

The paper proposes a mechanism for the impact of changes in the key rate on the volume of newly issued loans. The volume depends on the price (interest rates on loans), and the price depends on the key rate and the actual consumption of loans in the previous period (generalized cobweb cycle). The model was estimated by a Kalman filter, adequacy was confirmed by simulation. It is possible to forecast the average rate on loans for a month in advance according to the information published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CB). By playing various scenarios for changing the key rate, it was found that in quiet periods of economic development, the usual laws of supply and demand operate in the loan market and by raising the key rate, you can reduce inflation. In the turbulent (overheated) state of the economy, an increase in the key rate can, on the contrary, provoke an increase in the issuance of loans and unconventional manipulations with the key rate are required.

A Correlational Study on the Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Product Per Capita of a Country and Its COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Rates

Some studies had shown that there is a relationship between the state of the economy of a country and COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates. However, these studies are mostly done on countries that are already developed. This study aims to find the relationship between GDP and GDP per capita and COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates in all countries. In addition, they will also be analyzed based on their different income levels. The data collected are from databases from World Bank and WHO and are analyzed through MS Excel and JASP. Spearman’s rho is used to analyze the overall data and stratified data. It has been found that the GDP per capita and incidence (r = .656, p < .001) and mortality rates (r = .521, p < .001) have a strong and moderate correlation, respectively. GDP’s relationship with incidence (r = .295, p < .001) and mortality rates (r = .346, p < .001) resulted in both weak correlations. Stratified analysis resulted in no significant relationships, except for GDP per capita’s relationship with incidence (r = .362, p = .011) and mortality rates (r = .348, p = .014) in low-middle countries, which yielded both weak correlations. These results show that there is indeed a relationship between the incidence and mortality rates and the economic status of a country before a pandemic, however, more factors need to be accounted for in order to help countries improve their pandemic response in the future.

Key Rate and Loan Market in Russia

The paper proposes a mechanism for the impact of changes in the key rate on the volume of newly issued loans. The volume depends on the price (interest rates on loans), and the price depends on the key rate and the actual consumption of loans in the previous period (generalized cobweb cycle). The model was estimated by a Kalman filter, adequacy was confirmed by simulation. It is possible to forecast the average rate on loans for a month in advance according to the information published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CB). By playing various scenarios for changing the key rate, it was found that in quiet periods of economic development, the usual laws of supply and demand operate in the loan market and by raising the key rate, you can reduce inflation. In the turbulent (overheated) state of the economy, an increase in the key rate can, on the contrary, provoke an increase in the issuance of loans and unconventional manipulations with the key rate are required.

Economic development trends and aspects of healthcare reform in Russia under COVID-2019 pandemic

The article is aimed at studying the state of the Russian economy and health care system before and after the COVID-2019 pandemic, identifying the main trends in the economy and health care, regardless of the pandemic, as well as its impact on the socioeconomic development of the country. The interrelation and mutual influence of the levels of development of the economy and health care of the country is noted. An analysis of the state of the economy and health care system in Russia for 2017–2019 is presented, problems and achievements in the pre-pandemic period are identified. The COVID-2019 pandemic is considered not only from the point of view of a medical manifestation but as a powerful trigger that provoked large-scale socioeconomic changes in the world, as a bifurcation point in world development, requiring states to objectively assess the state of the economy and healthcare, revise the current coordinate system, getting out of the state of uncertainty and choosing promising areas of socioeconomic development. A cross-country analysis of the response of various health systems to the COVID-19 pandemic has shown the advantages of countries with centralized management, health financing, and subordinate sanitary and epidemiological services. Along with the achievements of Russia in the fight against COVID-19, the existing specific problems of the domestic health care system are noted, which negatively affected the preparedness for a pandemic. Analyzed the consequences of the COVID-2019 pandemic for the socio-economic state of countries at the global level. The change in socio-economic indicators in Russia in 2020 compared to 2019 is presented as a result of the consequences of the COVID-2019 pandemic. The main results of the study are to identify the main trends in the development of the economy and the healthcare system in Russia in the context of the ongoing COVID-2019 pandemic, defining the directions of reforming the national healthcare, trajectories of increasing the level of socioeconomic development of the country

ORGANIZATIONAL AND ECONOMIC MECHANISM AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR THE RESTORATION OF THE LIBERATED TERRITORIES OF AZERBAIJAN IN THE POST-CONFLICT PERIOD

The article examines the economic reforms carried out in Azerbaijan, the goals outlined by industries according to Strategic Plan of the “Strategic Road Map for the National Economy and Main Sectors of the Economy”, aimed at implementing these reforms, development strategies, and reforms carried out in accordance with State Programs. The importance of these reforms in the national economy sustainable and constant development has been noted. The article describes the development of the non-oil sector in the framework of general, sectoral and regional programs adopted in Azerbaijan to achieve sustainable development, diversification of the economy, development of infrastructure aimed at ensuring socio-economic development. Thus, the level of gas supply infrastructure in the regions, the level of gasification, the level of industrialization, the creation and development of infrastructure in existing industrial zones, as well as the implementation of clustering measures were reviewed and determined that in 2019, 46 enterprises were registered as residents and more than 8,000 permanent jobs were created. At the same time, during the 4th stage of the industrial revolution, the implementation of innovations in the field of ICT in Azerbaijan, new opportunities for sustainable development of the country as a result of digitalization and the formation of a digital economy were created. Also, the importance of restoring the liberated territories of the country, assessing the current state of the economy, determining the priorities of the sectors and establishing an organizational-management mechanism that ensures the gradual development of these areas in a timely manner were studied in detail. The relevant state decrees, defining measures that need to be taken to ensure the restoration and development of the Upper Karabakh and Kelbajar-Lachin regions and adjacent territories, were also considered and analyzed, specific directions of the organizational and management mechanism to ensure their implementation were specified.

A New Zealand study of association between crime and the state of the economy

<p>The aim of this thesis is to investigate whether there are associations between economically motivated crimes and macroeconomic variables. Economically motivated crimes include burglary, fraud and theft. Non-traffic offences are used as the measurement of overall crime levels, and an association between non-traffic offences and macroeconomic variables is analysed as well. Forecasting the number of people charged with burglary, fraud, theft and non-traffic offences is another objective of this thesis. Association between economically motivated crimes and the unemployment rate is also analysed at a regional level. Methods used in this thesis include Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. VECM and VAR models are used to produce Granger-Causality tests and impulse responses in order to summarise the associations between crimes and macroeconomic variables. All modelling methods are used to generate forecasts. The conclusion from this thesis is that there are associations between crime and some macroeconomic variables at a national level. The biggest impact on crime is its own value in the past. The impact of macroeconomic variables is minor, and this makes the sign of the impact less important. In fact, the sign of the impact is hard to conclude because it moves between positive and negative in different periods. At a national level, the growth rate of unemployment causes the growth rate of burglary, theft and non-traffic charges. The association between unemployment and crime becomes insignificant once all macroeconomic variables are included. Overall, the growth rate of personal weekly average income or household debt and disposable income ratio (both measuring personal or household financial condition) causes an increase in the growth rate of burglary, theft and non-traffic charges. Movement of inflation causes an increase in the growth rate of fraud charges. At a regional level, growth in the unemployment rate causes an increase in theft charges in Auckland and Northland. In Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast, growth in the unemployment rate causes growth in burglary charges and vice versa. Growth in the unemployment rate causes growth in the rate of fraud charges, but this is found in Northland only. Forecasts produced by this study suggest that the number of people charged with burglary, theft, fraud and non-traffic offences will continue to decrease up until 2019, but at a lower rate of reduction.</p>

A New Zealand study of association between crime and the state of the economy

<p>The aim of this thesis is to investigate whether there are associations between economically motivated crimes and macroeconomic variables. Economically motivated crimes include burglary, fraud and theft. Non-traffic offences are used as the measurement of overall crime levels, and an association between non-traffic offences and macroeconomic variables is analysed as well. Forecasting the number of people charged with burglary, fraud, theft and non-traffic offences is another objective of this thesis. Association between economically motivated crimes and the unemployment rate is also analysed at a regional level. Methods used in this thesis include Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. VECM and VAR models are used to produce Granger-Causality tests and impulse responses in order to summarise the associations between crimes and macroeconomic variables. All modelling methods are used to generate forecasts. The conclusion from this thesis is that there are associations between crime and some macroeconomic variables at a national level. The biggest impact on crime is its own value in the past. The impact of macroeconomic variables is minor, and this makes the sign of the impact less important. In fact, the sign of the impact is hard to conclude because it moves between positive and negative in different periods. At a national level, the growth rate of unemployment causes the growth rate of burglary, theft and non-traffic charges. The association between unemployment and crime becomes insignificant once all macroeconomic variables are included. Overall, the growth rate of personal weekly average income or household debt and disposable income ratio (both measuring personal or household financial condition) causes an increase in the growth rate of burglary, theft and non-traffic charges. Movement of inflation causes an increase in the growth rate of fraud charges. At a regional level, growth in the unemployment rate causes an increase in theft charges in Auckland and Northland. In Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast, growth in the unemployment rate causes growth in burglary charges and vice versa. Growth in the unemployment rate causes growth in the rate of fraud charges, but this is found in Northland only. Forecasts produced by this study suggest that the number of people charged with burglary, theft, fraud and non-traffic offences will continue to decrease up until 2019, but at a lower rate of reduction.</p>