scholarly journals Global imbalances, the US dollar, and how the crisis at the core of global finance spread to ›self-insuring‹ emerging market economies

Author(s):  
Jörg Bibow
Author(s):  
Guillermo Calvo

The chapter focuses sharply on liquid assets, and is the heart of the book. It distinguishes between intrinsic and extrinsic liquidity, centering on the latter. Extrinsic liquidity may break down on the spur of the moment and generate socially costly Liquidity Crunch. A substantive part of the chapter is devoted to discussing relative resilience of liquid assets, and focuses on Keynes's Price Theory of Money, the resilience of the US dollar, the weakness of bonds denominated in that currency, and of currencies of emerging-market economies. The chapter claims that recent financial crises can realistically be modeled as old-fashioned bank runs, and that assets' liquidity may be a function of policy. Special attention is paid to a phenomenon called Liquidity Deflation, which helps to rationalize Liquidity Trap as a consequence of loss of money liquidity rather than on the conventional explanation based on the infinite interest elasticity of money demand.


Author(s):  
Guillermo A. Calvo

The book claims that liquidity issues are at the heart of recent financial crises, and their analysis helps to explain phenomena that are alien to mainstream macroeconomic models. To make this point, the book first reviews crisis episodes starting with Mexico's Tequila crisis in 1994/5 and including the Great Recession in developed-market economies. The narrative reveals wide gaps in conventional models and the existence of stubborn intellectual inertia in dealing with these crises. The book devotes an entire chapter to discussing liquidity, highlighting that resilience with respect to Liquidity Crunch differs across liquid assets. This observation helps to rationalize a large set of phenomena, including resilience of the US dollar vis à vis other dollar-denominated liquid assets; global contagion in financial markets; effectiveness and limitations of central bank monetary policy; and negative effects of low and persistent international interest rates. Some of these phenomena – and others like secular stagnation – become evident once liquidity is explicitly introduced in mainstream models. In two econometric studies the book (1) focuses on Liquidity Crunch as an important component of “non-regular” recessions; and (2) identifies factors likely to contribute to Sudden Stop vulnerability in emerging-market economies.


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